Well, after a triple in 2017 (up 205.8%), I didn’t imagine that January could continue this insanity.
But… my portfolio was up 34.4% in January. Since much of my holdings are short puts, I don’t know how to say what percentage I have invested in what, so I just look at dollar amounts and relate it to my total portfolio. All my current positions are TSLA, AAPL, and SHOP. I also made money this month on NVDA, and on a couple of small trades in GOOG and AYX.
Results are:
TSLA 27.54%
SHOP 4.13%
NVDA 3.32%
AAPL -0.66%
GOOG 0.10%
AYX 0.02%
------
34.45%
Weirdly, since my portfolio tripled last year, that means this months rise is more than I started with in its entirety last year. True craziness. Indeed, January has been a very good year. I’m thinking that maybe I should take a bit off the table?
Tesla
This is my main holding, a mix of shares (almost all from having shares put to me) and way in the money short puts, mostly LEAPS.
I believe Tesla is an amazing company that will change the world significantly. They are essentially an energy company: producing using solar; storing using batteries; and using cleanly by way of cars. The car business is what’s most visible, and they are slowly disrupting the entire field. Everybody wants to be Tesla, but nobody knows how. The major manufacturers will mostly fail to make the transition to electric due to variations of the Innovator’s Dilemma, and their dealerships will be a hot mess for years to come. Meanwhile, Tesla is manufacturer, dealer, servicer, and will soon be “transportation as a service” provider. That last waits on real autonomy, which will come when it comes (2020?).
They have no real competition, and won’t for the foreseeable future. It will be obvious that the competition is serious when they sink $10B into building battery factories. Right now it’s all talk except maybe for China, but that won’t help anybody but the Chinese. And as the demand for EVs will be essentially all vehicle sales as appropriate EVs come into existence, they’ll sell all they can make. Their valuation will to a large extent track their ability to mass manufacture, which is currently ramping very quickly, albeit much slower than Elon Musk said they would (the guy sets crazy targets).
The energy storage business is beginning to be profitable and can no longer be ignored. My expectation is that analysts will fairly suddenly have to admit that Tesla’s future business is 50-100% larger than they’d been estimating. They pretty much all value the energy storage business at zero, while Musk has said it will be as big as the car business and will ramp much faster. I expect this will push the stock well over 400 by March. If it doesn’t happen this quarter, push it out a quarter – it makes no difference long term.
I have two Tesla cars now, a Model S and a Model 3, both bought with profits from trading TSLA (as was my previous Model S). Free cars! They are absolutely the best cars I’ve ever owned, by far. So long as Tesla continues to produce great cars, their automotive business is golden. I have no reason to doubt they shall.
I anticipate getting a Tesla roof and a couple of Powerwalls when I remodel my house (some day). It will be great to power my cars from sunshine. Even now, visiting a gas station is just an unpleasant memory.
The integrity of management is of the highest order, and the company is led by a true visionary who understands that making money is part of making one’s visions come true. I’m thrilled to go along for the ride.
Apple
My position is all shares (they were short puts, but they got put to me in December and I kept them), plus there are still some ESOP shares from before I retired.
What’s to say? Biggest (by market cap) and best company in the world. Continuing to produce amazing products. I spend every day interacting far more with Apple products than anything else. I’m writing this on a MacBook Pro, my iPhone is in constant use, and my Apple Watch as well. I use AirPods every day while I exercise, mostly listening to audio books. So long as they’re making great products, they’ll keep on doing well. From all reports the iPhone X is a breakthrough product and is doing well (no, the recent supply chain rumors are just FUD). I intend to buy one next year as I expect they will have worked through any issues by then. No, Apple products aren’t perfect, but they’re better by far than the competition. As with driving a Tesla, once you use Apple products there’s really no going back.
Apple cares more about customer security and privacy than anybody else. Apple cares about the customer experience more than anybody else. Apple cares more about good design than anybody else. These areas of focus remain their strong points. The integrity of management is rock solid. Apple has sadly lost its true visionary, but his precepts for running a great company are still in place. That should be enough for a while.
For the short term, the repatriation of vast profits from overseas will have positive effects for shareholders. I wouldn’t be surprised if they declare a special one time dividend. I’m currently planning to keep all those shares from December for a year until they become long term capital gains.
Shopify
My position is all short 2020 180 Put LEAPS.
You guys know this company way better than me. It’s just a (so far lucrative) side bet. I got into it on October 5 because of Citron’s bear raid, which for me echoed what they tried with Tesla. I figured a bunch of lying scum wouldn’t have changed their ways.
I wrote the puts for $86.50 when SHOP was at $94.50, so I got all of $1 in time premium. They closed the year at $81.65 (SHOP at $101.01), so at that point I could have bought them back for a profit of $1285 per contract. Now they are at $63.95, an additional profit of $1770 per contract. I plan to let them ride at least until next year, or when SHOP gets close to 150 (in which case I’ll likely buy them back and write puts at a much higher strike).
Nvidia
Premier supplier of AI hardware. Long term golden, but I think it’s possible it’s gotten ahead of itself. I recently bought back my puts and will not be holding through earnings. If I’ve misread things and it pops, I’ll get in again at a higher price. Again, a side bet rather than a real commitment, as I don’t have time to study the company sufficiently.
As to why I don’t invest the way that Saul does, I don’t believe I can really understand more than one or two companies at a time, so that’s my limit for investments. The only reason I can make side bets at all is because you guys, among others, maintain a lively watch on a variety of companies. So many thanks for that.
-IGU-
(grateful for this crazy market)