Everyone is waiting for the Fed tomorrow.
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Andy,
Kudos on that Gann chart. I didnāt know any practitioners of that arcane art still exited.
Arindam
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Andy,
For the sake of discussion, let me play devilās advocate and argue that itās āfundamentalsā that will determine US stock prices, for which cap-weighted, tech-heavy SPY isnāt the best of proxies, rather than the ātechnicalsā that can be inferred from price-volume charts.
Raising interest-rates by another 75 beeps is a political gesture, not a genuine effort to dampen āinflationā. Meanwhile, much of the world is dedollarizing. Thatās what will burst the debt-driven bubble we live in. When the Fed-Treasury cartel canāt print, our dear Congress canāt spend, and the scam ends.
Yeah, right now the $US dollar --as the least dirty shirt in the laundry basket of fiat currencies-- is rallying. But plot it against a commodities-based currency like the Ruble. Whoops. Biden lost that war, just as he and his handlers are making a mess of everything else.
Arindam
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There are plenty I have found. Most from outside the US. Everyone has their own āflavorā of Gann so I stick to my version developed over 20+ years.
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Sure. Some form of āfundamentalsā determine stock prices. Although, most fundamental reports have been skewed to influence investors to act in a specific way (by large institutions including the government).
I watch what āisā happening using my Gannish charts. If some great fundamental play appears it will show up in the charts. It can do nothing but show up in the charts. If a news theme doesnāt end up in the charts (or charts go the other way) then that news theme is noise to the true signal.
A strong/weak USD makes no difference to me (unless I want to trade currencies or gold). The affects of the USD and debt show up in charts of stocks.
I use the SPY and SPX to chart the market because it includes price movements (USD flows) into and out of the 500 largest stocks in the US markets.
I also track ETFs of sectors and indices to see where money is flowing. I rarely trade individual stocks as they can possibly open down 50%. ETFs of indices are limited to opening down less then 10% in the worst of times.
"Most [Gann chartists are] from outside the US.
Andy,
Thatās a shrewd comment that rings true. Most US chartists --and especially the ones that get featured at places like CNBC-- are clueless. Yeah, they can draw lots of fancy lines. But their charts provide entertainment, not useful info.
Arindam
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Andy,
The relationships between ātechnicalsā and āfundamentalsā arenāt simple or obvious. But Grahamās insight is useful. āIn the short term, the market is a voting machine. In the long term, a weighing machine.ā Also, Sorosā insight. āTechnicals can become a fundamental.ā
I never messed with Gann charting, nor Elliot Wave. Just way too complicated. But Iām a fan a Candle Pattern Analysis.
Arindam
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Gann range squares are easy. The equation of the the current markets is captured in the range for a high to low (or low to high). Measure the next move(s) against this equation (the diagonal line of the range).