The North American electric grid faces intensifying reliability risks over the next decade as demand growth driven by data centers and artificial intelligence threatens to outpace resource additions, according to the 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) released Jan. 29 by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).
The annual 10-year reliability assessment from North America’s Electric Reliability Organization (ERO), which serves as a snapshot of adequacy for 2026–2035 based on industry projections compiled in mid-2025, projects that summer peak demand could surge by 224 GW—69% more than the 132 GW projected in the previous LTRA 2024 (released in 2025). Winter demand could surge even more, by 245 GW, a 65% increase from last year’s 149 GW growth projection. “Compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for summer and winter peak demand are the highest since NERC’s tracking started in 1995,” the report notes.