New New World Order

Credible reports including Russian sources indicate Ukrainian force have crossed the Seversky Donets and Oskil rivers and entered Donetsk Oblast recapturing several villages. This is important because Putin promised to “liberate” Donetsk Oblast. I imagine the end of the war is still a long way off, but it has become clear that despite being much bettered equipped, the Russian military isn’t as good as Ukraine’s army. And the Russians appear to have deployed all their available troops. There are no meaningful reinforcements to send. If Russian units start cracking in the south like they did in the north, this could be over sooner than we think. And so we have to start thinking about what a Ukrainian victory will look like.

The great Anne Applebaum had an excellent article on this topic in the Atlantic yesterday.

When I write that Americans and Europeans need to prepare for a Ukrainian victory, this is what I mean: We must expect that a Ukrainian victory, and certainly a victory in Ukraine’s understanding of the term, also brings about the end of Putin’s regime.

To be clear: This is not a prediction; it’s a warning.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-vi…

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Thank you for the link to Anne Applebaum’s latest. I consider her to be one of the smartest and least likely to be caught up in her own or whatever is the stylish POV of the moment.

david fb

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If Russian units start cracking in the south like they did in the north, this could be over sooner than we think.

You also have to think will Putin use tactical nukes.

JLC

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I don’t know if it’s been talked about (I’m sure it has, just not following that closely). But I wonder if Ukraine manages to push Russia completely out of what they took this time around, might Ukraine think to try to reclaim the Crimean region Russia seized a while back?

Jim

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