As I’ve mentioned before, while Russia would have been pleased to see the Ukraine government take it on the lam like the one in Afghanistan did and grab the country, their primary goal is to create a substantial buffer between the NATO countries of Western Europe and Russia.
Optimally this would stretch up to the Dnieper River. If that was not in the cards, taking the territory south of the Dnieper as far as Zaporizhzhia would provide protection for their holding of the Crimea with its Black Sea seaport of Sevastopol and taking the provinces of Donbas, Sloboda and Siveria would protect the border as far north as Belarus. If they can manage to take the coast as far as Odessa, that would also be beneficial in both strengthening the Russian position and reducing Ukraine’s ability to import arms.
Russian troops have moved towards Kiev, destroying infrastructure and attempting to diminish the Ukrainian army’s offensive capability. They have since withdrawn from central Ukraine across the border into Belarus to re-group and head into eastern Ukraine, reenforcing the Russian push from the east.
Despite a number of negative issues, I believe that Russia will be able to take this stretch of Ukraine. In order to maintain their grip they will possibly practice a combination of ethnic cleansing and “colonization” by ethnic Russians.
Presumably, they will "harden’ the border to prevent a perpetual war with Ukraine. This process may take a year or more, but at some time, will likely stabilize.
The question arises - will the US and its allies keep perpetual sanctions against Russia ad, if so, will Russian/Chinese cooperation create a significant enough shift in the global geopolitical infrastructure to destabilize both European and American politics - not to mention the potential for Sinofication of Taiwan.
Europe has had its borders redrawn hundreds of times. Nothing is new under the sun and nothi g is permanent.
It seems likely that Russian thought that Russian speaking Ukrainians would be sympathetic to their invasion. The reverse seems to be true. Even Kviv is dominantly native Russian speakers, although something like 80% of Ukrainians are bilingual to some degree. Something like 20% also speak English.
At this point, I find it hard to believe that the Ukrainians will accept any compromise on their territory.
At this point, I am dubious about the Russians actually being able to win anything militarily … they might keep throwing bodies into the fight, but, hey, Ukraine has more tanks now than when they started this war, because of the number of tanks they have captured … not to mention the number of Russian tanks that have been destroyed, but I also heard today that the US had supplied them with 10X the number of anti-tank weapons than the Russians had tanks.
Add to this the cadre of prior conscripts now wanting to go home, replaced at best by absolute newbys who know nothing, not to mention those actually killed or injured … and I don’t envy Putin trying to figure out what to do.
their primary goal is to create a substantial buffer between the NATO countries of Western Europe and Russia.
Then it’s already an abject failure.
The “military operation” in Ukraine itself is still ongoing but one result is very clear: Finland with it’s 1,000 mile+ border with Russia will be in NATO very soon.
their primary goal is to create a substantial buffer between the NATO countries of Western Europe and Russia.
The problem with this is unless you are some sort of hell bent dictator NATO is never a threat to anyone. But if you are on the wrong side of the fence on one man rule yes there is a problem. OFW
…and Sweeden was one of Russia’s longtime dangerous foes, and has been neutral for over a century, but also is now close to signing up for NATO.
Putin wasn’t looking for a military buffer so much as a socioeconomic one. Militarily weak and terrirotially fragmented Ukraine was far more dangerous to Russia than any NATO aligned nation because after escaping the Putin econoomic looting zone Ukraine was thriving while speaking amd writing in both Russian and comprehensible Ukrainian.
Europe has had its borders redrawn hundreds of times. Nothing is new under the sun and nothing is permanent.
The redrawing of European borders seems to be the exception that proves the rule.
I’ve always been curious about the wanderings of the human tribes. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies by Jared Diamond is a good general overview but I was more curious about the movements of specific groups. My latest discovery is fascinating!
Walking the streets of Porto and Vila Nova de Gaia I would hear conversations in multitudes of languages some of which I recognized (French, English, Spanish, German) others just have a hint of their possible source and some were a total mystery (Africa). One case seemed rather curious, what sounded like Russian from a distance would turn out to be Portuguese as they got closer and I could distinguish the words.
The Iberian peninsula hosts several languages, some romance and others like Basque entirely different. The romance languages include Spanish, Portuguese, Galician, and Catalan. Of these four, Portuguese and Galician have a very different pronunciation from Spanish and Galician. I speak Spanish fluently but with a Venezuelan, or better said Caraqueño accent which is very similar to the Spanish of the Canary Islands. This pronunciation is not all that different from French and Italian which allows me to understand a bit of both of these languages. But Portuguese and Galician which are very close, are entirely different, at a distance they sound like Russian! How can this be?
I came across a YouTube video about the Vandals!
2 (Vandal) a member of a Germanic people that ravaged Gaul, Spain, and North Africa in the 4th–5th centuries and sacked Rome in ad 455.
The Dictionary
The YouTube video said that the Vandals originated in what now is Poland and three Vandal tribes settled in the north west corner of Iberia which are now known as Galicia (a Spanish region) and Portugal. They adopted the Romance words but kept their native pronunciation!
If Russia does not get its economy in gear they will continue to slide back into underdevelopment. Renewables will weaken their fossil fuels. The military bungling is putting their arm sales in doubt. Quite simply Russia is decaying. They had the historic moment to move to capitalism with the fall of the Soviet Union but they bungled privatization. Instead of a capitalist revolution they got a coup d’état with no real change, the same old oligarchy in new clothes with the same old Russian territorial aspirations.
Venezuela has a socialist mixed economy constitution and like many other smaller countries takes its cues from America. Privatization was no exception and it was done badly because the people were not alerted to the difficulties it would create before the benefits kicked in. The president was impeached on trumped up charges and kicked out of office. The economy continued deteriorating until a charismatic figure convinced the people that he was the Messiah who would turn things around.
It’s the economy STUPID!!!
The Captain
how did Che Guevara become Cuba’s Economic Minister? “I though Fidel asked for a communist.”
A Demand driven system requires people to spend themselves into debt and poverty to sustain the economy.
As I’ve mentioned before, while Russia would have been pleased to see the Ukraine government take it on the lam like the one in Afghanistan did and grab the country, their primary goal is to create a substantial buffer between the NATO countries of Western Europe and Russia.
Why would Russia need a buffer between it and NATO countries? For fear of a NATO invasion? Russia has a large nuclear weapons arsenal. There is no chance of an invasion by NATO. The real problem Russia has with NATO is that once a country is in NATO, Russia can’t bully it anymore, or invade it to change/prop up the government.
Sorry, you can only recommend a post to the Best of once.
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Why would Russia need a buffer between it and NATO countries? For fear of a NATO invasion? Russia has a large nuclear weapons arsenal. There is no chance of an invasion by NATO. The real problem Russia has with NATO is that once a country is in NATO, Russia can’t bully it anymore, or invade it to change/prop up the government.
NATO is probably the most effective organization promoting peace in history? If you don’t agree ask Vlad and his American buddy who both tried to get rid of it?
Anymouse <who was a NATO guy from 1965 to mid 2001***>
*** Six years CDN infantry, 18 years aircrew half of which involved flying off Navy ships in sub hunting helicopters, 3 years programing NATO AWACs AOCP followed by ten years logistics programmer on the NATO AWACs base at Geilenkirchen Germany.
…their primary goal is to create a substantial buffer between the NATO countries of Western Europe and Russia.
Disagree, or at least that is incomplete. Russia already has NATO countries on her borders. Ukraine was interested in joining NATO but was not in process and that wasn’t a sure thing. The fuller picture is that Putin in both words and deeds wants to reconstitute the Russian Empire. Putin has invaded Chechnya, South Ossetia, and Crimea. Lenin created the Soviet Union to be sort of semi-federation with states having some autonomy. Putin views this as a mistake. Just before the current war, Putin said that Ukraine was an invention of Russia and has no right to exist as an independent nation.
No one knows how this will come out. Fighting could go on as long as Russia wants. Years? Decades?
Sanctions means the Iron Curtain returns. That may change whenever a peace agreement is signed. Terms unknown. Timing unknown.
The sanctions imposed are economic. Russians are paid in Rubles and spend in Rubles. Most are not impacted unless they trade internationally.
Iron curtain countries had their own currencies used for day to day business. They were weak currencies not usually accepted in foreign trade. Hard currency could be obtained on the black market. Some companies made special export products to earn hard currency. That let them buy some needed materials for import. Most residents had no need of hard currency.
Most are not impacted unless they trade internationally.
This is not really true. Russians, like folks in other parts of the world, have gotten used to stuff being available. And now a lot of stuff isn’t available, and a lot of stuff has gone way up in price. Things like laptops, hard drives, cables, etc. Food prices have gone up. Certain foods are hard to find now. Replacement parts for household things are harder to find. And much more.
Russians are paid in Rubles and spend in Rubles. Most are not impacted unless they trade internationally.
Their economy is in tatters over this. The default screws up the average person’s bank account interest rates. It screws up any credit services. It screws up the value of the ruble to just buy a loaf of bread. It means massive inflation. It means the printing press has to go mad to pay the army. It means food shortage, energy shortages as unbelievable as that sounds in Russia. It means not getting parts to repair your car. Not taking a flight outside of Russia. It impacts everything in Russia like a house of soggy cards. It means when your son is conscripted you are seeing him off to war. It means your son in uniform is going hungry. He is not trained to fight. He is not equipped or supported for combat.
It all means growing political instability in Russia. It means you or your neighbor going to prison. It means more violence as people barter for supplies.
I have zero pity. Kill Putin I will sing a different song.
American Pharma corporations really should not be in Russia producing pills or selling their drugs.
I mean I have zero pity. Everyone in Russia over the age of 16 is guilty as all get out until Putin is offed.
People have a complete responsibility for their leadership. Does not matter how afraid of going to prison someone is. Orban is another let the cowards say they are brave bull story. France may pull this next. We see it coming and going. We are no stranger to it.
Most are not impacted unless they trade internationally.
This is not really true. Russians, like folks in other parts of the world, have gotten used to stuff being available. And now a lot of stuff isn’t available, and a lot of stuff has gone way up in price. Things like laptops, hard drives, cables, etc. Food prices have gone up. Certain foods are hard to find now. Replacement parts for household things are harder to find. And much more.
Yes, Russia has its yuppie class just as we do, but I suspect that is not the average Russian, who is used to standing in line for hours for whatever the next truck delivers knowing that it will be sold out in a few hours and may not be back for months.
How big is a typical apartment in one of those Soviet era blocks? Google says–
Typical apartments of the K-7 series have a total area of 30 m2 (323 sq ft) (one-room), 44 m2 (474 sq ft) (two-room) and 60 m2 (646 sq ft) (three-room).
These are not wealthy people. Maybe working class. They are not used to luxuries.
I think you are accepting our propaganda and wishful thinking. That is not the real Russia.
I think you are accepting our propaganda and wishful thinking. That is not the real Russia.
The biggest household expenditure in any household below the two 2% in the US or Russia is food. With the ruble depreciating and at risk again food is problematic.
Yes, Russia has its yuppie class just as we do, but I suspect that is not the average Russian, who is used to standing in line for hours for whatever the next truck delivers knowing that it will be sold out in a few hours and may not be back for months.
How big is a typical apartment in one of those Soviet era blocks? Google says–
Typical apartments of the K-7 series have a total area of 30 m2 (323 sq ft) (one-room), 44 m2 (474 sq ft) (two-room) and 60 m2 (646 sq ft) (three-room).
These are not wealthy people. Maybe working class. They are not used to luxuries.
I think you are accepting our propaganda and wishful thinking. That is not the real Russia.
I work with real Russians (regular working people) on a daily basis. I’ve been to the real Russia, not just “rich” Moscow, but mostly smaller cities, and I’ve seen their homes. Standing in line for the truck was an 80’s phenomenon, it is mostly gone by now, except perhaps in some far flung small towns here and there. I’ve shopped at the regular supermarkets and they are reasonably stocked - European-style though, they have one brand/type of mayonnaise, rather than a choice of 5 or 10 brands/styles that we see here in the USA.
How big is the typical apartment in Europe? In the UK? Not much bigger than what you describe above. And what you describe are “welfare” apartments, not the kind of apartments where people who work at a regular private-sector job live in. The apartments I saw were similar to the ones I saw in Milan or in Paris, small but functional. They don’t have gigantic kitchens and “great rooms” like we have here in the USA. It’s not just “Yuppies”, it is people of all types that work regular jobs.
