Hi Itch,
It sounds like you’re asking for a detailed step-by-step formula for investing, but one doesn’t really exist. There is always a lot of judgement involved. I think successful investing could be summed up as “buy attractive companies at a reasonable price and hold them until your thesis breaks (or you find a much more attractive place for the capital)”.
Saul doesn’t provide a 10-step formula, but he does offer a lot of insights into what does (or does not) make a company investible and attractive to him. And he also talks a lot about selling when he suspects his thesis might be broken, along with real-world examples of what a broken thesis might look like in the wild. And he also talks about his portfolio management and capital allocation, sometimes moving capital from one opportunity to another because it looks meaningfully more attractive for one reason or another. All of this can be found in the Knowledgebase.
In terms of actually applying this to your own investing, I think you could start by identifying a large group of companies that are worth considering further – maybe recs from a couple of TMF services you like, for example. And then start winnowing them down using some of the things Saul looks for. Not profitable? Cross it out. Chinese? Cross it out. Cyclical? Cross it out. Business isn’t growing? Cross it out. Sky-high valuation? Cross it out. And so on.
And then begin digging deeper into what’s left: read the annual reports, read the recent conference call transcripts, study the growth drivers of the business, and of course read any TMF materials (official updates and also the board posts). Continue winnowing down your list: does the business seem like it has a competitive advantage? Does it generate recurring income? Does management seem competent and like straight shooters in the calls? Does the company seem like it has a nice runway for future growth? What are the risks they face? Write down your thoughts on each one.
Now look over those companies, review their valuations with respect to the opportunities and risks, and begin grouping them based on their attractiveness. These groups can help you decide on final candidates, and can even form the basis of your portfolio allocations, with perhaps a bit more capital allocated to the best opportunities.
When it comes to actually buying, you need to decide on how many companies you wish to own, and how large or small you wish your “average” allocation to be. Saul uses large allocations, but I personally would recommend starting out with small allocations when you’re beginning: like 3% for an average position. Small allocations make things a lot safer and easier to manage as you grow and learn as an investor. I also wouldn’t dump all of your investible cash into the market in a single lump either (as tempting as that might be in this market), but ease in over time. Tomorrow will present different opportunities than today.
Finally, remember that you’re going to be wrong sometimes and make mistakes. Everybody does. On the one hand, that means don’t get discouraged by occasional long-term flops, but rather learn from them and look to revise your process. On the other hand, it also serves as a warning against over-confidence and over-allocation, no matter how amazing or sure an opportunity looks. After all, we can’t predict ahead of time which of our decisions will end up being mistakes
I’d also consider trying a few different investment styles (perhaps with separate mini-portfolios) to see if Saul’s approach is the best fit for you. I personally think the true secret to successful long-term investing is finding an approach that matches your temperament so that you can, indeed, stick with it for the long term through thick and thin, and not succumb to short-term emotion during periods of stress. Everybody is different, and you need to find what works best for you.
I’m not really sure if any of that helps or not – it’s still rather general – but ultimately you’re going to need to develop your own investing process that is tailored for you over time. Hopefully this at least provides somewhat of a starting point.
Congrats on taking control
Neil