Next months Purchase: ATVI or NVDA

Planning on buying a 20 % stake in either of these, i have a tiny starter porfolio of only 5 stocks at the moment.

Name Symbol Weight Daily P/L% Net P/L%
Walt Disney DIS 16.21% 0.78% 14.50%
Gilead GILD 4.03% -0.31% -23.53%
Facebook FB 27.90% 0.27% -2.71%
Under Armour C UA 5.38% 1.30% -51.65%
Nordea Bank AB NDA 16.80% -0.43% 44.10%
Swedbank A SWEDa 29.67% -0.19% 9.60%

What do the Gurus think would be a good move, i just started reading this board and using the excel and looks like i made some seriously bad choices on UA and GILD … also NDA has produced me money well but looking at the excel the price target seems to be around 80 instead of current 110.

Last month i added facebook which looks like a solid stock to have and now ATVI vs NVDA is on my radar.

To summarize, what would you do in this situation:

  1. Sell UA and GILD take the loss buy NVDA AND ATVI
  2. Buy NVDA
  3. Buy ATVI
  4. Sell NDA and buy NVDA + ATVI
1 Like

Marko - I’m looking at NVDA myself. I would buy NetEase over ATVI. Gilead should come back but will take several years as there is no immediate catalyst - in the meantime they could become a yield play. I don’t know what to make of UA. I think they are over valued and after being burned by Skechers I’m not mad about the space but they are the brand of the moment.

Your portfolio isn’t exactly massive so unless you need the cash to make your purchases I’m leaning to 2. Love to hear Saul’s case study on this one tho.

A

1 Like

Hey MarkoKurs.

When you are posting a chart, if you use < pre> Before the chart and < /pre> After it (without the extra space), you can preserve your original spacing.

Thanks for the post!

Jeb

2 Likes

What Jeb said.

With a little editing, it looks like this:


Name		Symbol	Weight	Daily P/L%	Net P/L%	
Walt Disney 	DIS	16.21%	0.78%		14.50%	
Gilead 		GILD	4.03%	-0.31%		-23.53%	
Facebook 	FB	27.90%	0.27%		-2.71%	
Under Armour C 	UA	5.38%	1.30%		-51.65%	
Nordea Bank AB 	NDA	16.80%	-0.43%		 44.10%	
Swedbank A 	SWEDa	29.67%	-0.19%		 9.60%	

Much easier to read, eh?

DT

2 Likes

To summarize, what would you do in this situation:

1. Sell UA and GILD take the loss buy NVDA AND ATVI
2. Buy NVDA
3. Buy ATVI
4. Sell NDA and buy NVDA + ATVI

Hmmmmm,
Buy GOOG
Buy PCLN
Buy AMZN
Buy NFLX
Buy ULTA

Growth Stalwarts

JT

8 Likes

Hmm, if I told you I’m 30 years old would that change your perspective?

Or are these stocks considered core holdings vs sp500?

NFLX actually looks like a growth monster, i might have made a massive mistake inputing the values


NFLX	$157.16	0.09%	$158.00	0.01	7-17	$0.06	$0.07	$0.07	$0.06	$0.12	$0.12	$0.15	$0.40	$0.26	$0.79	200%	199	0.99	X	33%		X	$68,311	23.05.2017: Can someone check, might have made a mistake somewhere...(Marko)				


NFLX	$157.16	0.09%	7/17/2017	$1,645	$1,740	$1,823	$1,958	$2,105	$2,290	$2,477	$2,636	$7,166	$9,508	33%	7.18	0.22		0.99	X										

1 Like

Ticker	Recent Price	Recent Price Change	Parity Price (1YPEG=1) (assuming prior 1Y growth rate continues)	Bagger potential (if growth rate continues)	Next Earnings Date (leave empty if uknown)	Trailing Earnings Last Year				Trailing Earnings This Year		Trailing Earnings This Year		TTME Last Year	TTME This Year	YoY EPS G (capped at 200% if calculated higher)	TTM PE	1YPEG	Earnings Acceleration?	YoY Rev Growth* (from revenue tab)	Revenue Acceleration?	Candidate* Stock?	Market Cap (in Millions)	Comments/Notes/Corrections	
																									
NFLX	$157.16	0.09%	$158.00	0.01	juuli.17	$0.06	$0.07	$0.07	$0.06	$0.12	$0.12	$0.15	$0.40	$0.26	$0.79	200%	199	0.99	X	33%		X	$68,311	23.05.2017: Can someone check, might have made a mistake somewhere...(Marko)	
																									
																									
Ticker	Recent Price	Recent Price Change	Next Earnings Date	Trailing Revenue Last Year (in $M)				Trailing Revenue This Year (in $M)				TTM Rev ($M) Last Year	TTM Rev ($M) This Year	YoY Rev G	TTM PS	1YPSG ??	Revenue Acceleration?	1YPEG (from earnings growth tab)	Candidate* Stock?	Comments/Notes/Corrections		Color Legend			
																									
NFLX	$157.16	0.09%	7/17/2017	$1,645	$1,740	$1,823	$1,958	$2,105	$2,290	$2,477	$2,636	$7,166	$9,508	33%	7,18	0.22		0.99	X						

Wish i could delete / Edit my posts to remove the paste nonsense :slight_smile:

heres a link to the 1YPEG Screen instead :slight_smile:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H_v6WOjFi81rM3TH9ZHS…

Hmm, if I told you I’m 30 years old would that change your perspective?

Or are these stocks considered core holdings vs sp500?

For your age I would defiantly call them core holdings for the next 20 years…
Along with the FB you already have I wouldn’t be afraid of giving them an
allocation of 75% and doing a Rip Van Winkle.

Maybe a bit of Apple, Microsoft and Disney.
And ISRG although the valuation is a bit stretched
courtesy of Goldman $achs, etc.

JT

If something were to set the S&P 500 off 25% soon,
I’d rather have these growth stalwarts over software
companies with stretched valuations and unknown moats…

2 Likes

and doing a Rip Van Winkle.

You do a better Rip Van Winkle with sector ETFs.

Denny Schlesinger

You do a better Rip Van Winkle with sector ETFs.

I’ll bet you add water to a primo scotch as well. :wink:

JT

2 Likes

I think nvda is well in line with these companies too!

I’ll bet you add water to a primo scotch as well. :wink:

Blended scotch yes. Single malt no.

The Captain

1 Like

I think nvda is well in line with these companies too!

Maybe but chip companies come and chip companies go.
Put a smidgen of that in the other 25% of the portfolio.
Along with…

V MA SQ
your ATVI
BOFI SBNY
SHOP
COST ?
BA

JT

I guess I’m pointing you toward proven growth with SWAN, Sleep Well At Night,
and a minimum desire to fiddle with it.

Careful of chip companies. Fairchild was about the first, Motorola was once the largest, companies with massive share and seemingly unstoppable momentum included Commodore, Everex, Wang, Apple (twice), IBM, Dell (twice), Gateway, you name it.

In technology, I want to concentrate on the moat. My recs for a 25 year growth group Goog, Msft, FB, AMZN all because they are enablers for other activity and have the throw weight to adapt to anything. They all seem to understand that they must continually leverage their size and market power to remake their future.

I like ATVI, but only hour by hour, because its world can change very quickly. NVDA not at all.

5 Likes

As has been suggested, to date ALL chip companies have ended up with profits plateauing. And frequently, plummeting. And sometimes, bankrupt. It appears to be the nature of the beast as competitors catch up and chips become commodities.

Does this mean they have no part in a portfolio?

I sure hope not because I’ve got a lot of NVDA in my own portfolio. :wink: The trick with these chip companies is to recognize the signs that the competition is catching up and that rocketing earnings will level off… and the likelihood that share prices may drop as PEs contract.

Are we there yet with NVDA?

Obviously, since I own a lot of it… I don’t think so. Although there are occasional rumblings that other companies are catching up. So, I continue to hold. For now. But ongoing vigilance is necessary to avoid unpleasant portfolio performance. Never consider chip companies to be “buy and forget”.

Of course… I say never consider companies to be “buy and forget” either. But chip companies are among the most fragile holdings.

IMO, one does best by being bold…

… but not stupid.

Good luck! There are plenty of folks here happy to share their thinking. It’s up to you to weigh those thoughts and decide.

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

7 Likes

Blended scotch yes. Single malt no.

Tho strictly speaking it should be the same water as where the distillery came from - e.g. River Spey.

That would be the ultimate razor and blade model - buy the whisky and buy the pure highland water to go with it!

Ant

1 Like

Bloomberg just reported that SoftBank Group Corp. has quietly amassed a $4 billion stake in Nvidia Corp. making it the fourth-largest shareholder in the graphics chipmaker, according to people familiar with the situation. A holding of 4.9 percent, just under the amount that would require a regulatory disclosure in the U.S., would be worth about $4 billion.

1 Like

Which is good / bad? :slight_smile: