No population growth projected for California

ZPG arrives in California. This will mean fewer reps in the House as US population is projected to grow by 9% by 2060. It may mean a need for tighter state finances.

Population projections by the California Department of Finance.

2023   39.0 million
2030   39.4
2040   40.1
2050   40.0
2060   39.5


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Sounds like you think CA is toast.

Lightly toasted if they don’t change their ways. The state is projecting large (circa $40 billion, IIRC) deficits every year for the next five years. Not having a printing press, what programs will they cut? What taxes will they raise?

If in 1970 someone had said that California would be losing people relative to Texas, the response would have been laughter. The Carolinas? Tennessee? C’mon!

But there it is. California has lost 1.2 million people in only three years. Florida gained 818,000 in the same period. Texas 656,000.

California has the highest number of business-impacting regulations of any state. Some may regard that as a plus, but CEOs regard the regulatory climate as quite important when deciding on business locations.

Quite obvious is the high cost of housing which impacts younger and lower-income residents disproportionately. Energy prices are the highest of any state (except the special case of Hawaii).

Lightly toasted.



The entire thing is predicated on tech sales. Forecasts for 5 years? By who? Enemies of progress?

Tech will be in a massive resurgence by the end of 2024. Heavy industry is entering a massive multi decade resurgence.

I would not worry about it. Your questions really have no bearing.

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Is the state LAO (Legislative Analyst’s Office an enemy of progress? Maybe. At any rate, it would be nice to share your optimism.

"State budget analysts are predicting a $68 billion deficit next year…It’s bad for the nonprofits, advocates and special interest groups…The hard-won minimum wages for health care workers, for example, could be delayed at Newsom’s insistence…the state will almost certainly need to make cuts on a scale few lawmakers serving today have seen…They also will be forced to consider cuts to education funding…

“But this year is just the beginning — the LAO predicts ongoing $30 billion annual deficits, even if lawmakers are able to wipe out this year’s $68 billion shortfall.”


Bob, the LAO has a directive to create efficiencies. This at times may marry up with the need to create perspectives for the public. CA is at little risk of cutting its standard of living for everyone. Meaning other red states like to cut the standard of living. Do not ask me why. But loaded up with bull people cut their own standard of living in red states.

In CA managing expectations means as a blue state CA can over achieve as the blue states are prone to do. Lower expectations are a good thing. LOL

What does the Lao do?

Role of the LAO

The office serves as “eyes and ears” for the Legislature to ensure that the executive branch is implementing legislative policy in a cost efficient and effective manner. The office carries out this legislative oversight function by reviewing and analyzing the operations and finances of state government.

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I wouldn’t really believe that number. Newsom will just let more people across the border, and the population could easily boom by 10 million people in a year, if you believe the people at the border recently.


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The Mexican government desperately needs us to change our immigration policies. The Mexicans have a major labor shortage.

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So do we, and we have a population growth problem. At least until the robots come.



Those saying cancel culture are our robots.

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Does this mean you see the LAO as an enemy of progress? Just curious.

Then the question becomes how many will end up in California? This year the state will offer full MediCal benefits to ‘undocumented’ immigrants so maybe they will go west. Not clear how California can afford to do that without cutting other state programs.

You are correct that the numbers of ‘encounters’ has been at a high rate. The last fiscal year saw 3.2 million (plus the getaways).


Not exactly games within games.

I look at the bottom line. I do not expect the public to be fully informed and then make the right decisions.

I expect some of the public to be fully informed and bring others along.

I am trying to bring you along. You keep reverting to lowering the American standard of living.

DB2 I assume the full 10 million will end up in California since Newsom is the Governor of California. :rofl: :rofl:

I am really pushing the limits of the fear mongering

Actually, I have very little impact on macroeconomic trends. :slightly_smiling_face:



Thanks to cancel culture. LOL