Nordstream 1 (and maybe 2) Pipeline leaking

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

The operator of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany has said its pipeline system under the Baltic Sea sustained “unprecedented” damage in one day, according to Reuters.

“The destruction that occurred on the same day simultaneously on three strings of the offshore gas pipelines of the Nord Stream system is unprecedented. It is not yet possible to estimate the timing of the restoration of the gas transport infrastructure,” Nord Stream AG said, Reuters reported.

In September, Russia indefinitely halted deliveries of gas to Europe through Nord Stream 1 due to an oil leak at one of its compressor stations.

The Swedish Maritime Authority told CNN Tuesday that three leaks were identified in pipelines for Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, near the Danish island of Bornholm.

The authority has warned vessels to maintain a distance of around 8 kilometers (5 miles) from the leaks and issued a warning for aircraft to keep a safety altitude of 1,000 meters (approximately 0.62 miles). A spokesperson said the first report of a leak was made Monday afternoon, with two more leaks identified in the evening.

The spokesperson said that they had not investigated the cause of the leaks and had no information about any contact between Nord Stream and the maritime authority, noting that their responsibility was to warn ships about the leak.

On Monday, Nord Stream AG said it was investigating the reasons behind a drop in pressure in the pipeline. German authorities also reported a drop in pressure in the Nord Stream 2, the pipeline between Russia and Germany that has been dormant after the German government blocked its opening following the Ukraine war.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday they were “extremely concerned” about the news. When asked if it could have been an act of sabotage, Peskov said: “At the moment, no possibility can be ruled out. There is some destruction of the pipe, and what caused it — we cannot exclude any possibilities before the results of the research appear.”

The Danish Defence Command has released video of what it said are gas leaks from Nord Stream in the Baltic Sea.

The video released by the authority shows bubbles and an area of disturbed sea.

It has also established prohibition zones around the Danish island of Bornholm, it said in a news release.

“Following the three gas leaks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, prohibition zones have been established around the leaks for the sake of the safety of ship and air traffic. Nord Stream 1 has two leaks northeast of Bornholm, Nord Stream 2 has one leak south of Dueodde. The leaks were discovered by the Danish Defence F-16 interceptor response unit," the authority said.
Denmark is sending two ships to an area in the Baltic Sea to make sure that no one enters the maritime zone affected by the leaks.

Jeff

2

Latest news:
Nord Stream AG, the operator of the pipelines, in safety documents published before any news emerged of three separate pipeline leaks in one day, had said that the probability of a pipeline failure or leakage is “as low as one damage event every 100,000 years”.

The operator also said that pipeline repairs were “not expected to be necessary during Nord Stream’s minimum operational lifespan of 50 years.”

The Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) said Tuesday that it detected two explosions on Monday near the area of the Nord Stream pipelines.

The first explosion was recorded at 2:03 a.m. local time in the early hours of Monday and the second one 17 hours later, at 7:04 p.m. on Monday evening, according to SNSN.

SNSN said that one of the underwater explosions resulted in a tremor of 2.3 magnitude.

According to SNSN, the last time a similar seismological event was registered in the area was in 2016. It added that this area is not usually used for defense exercises.

The German geological research centre, GFZ, told CNN that two tremors were registered at similar times at a seismic station on the Danish island of Bornholm, again close to the reported leaks on the pipelines.

Jeff

1 Like
3

It’s more than a little troubling. Interesting to wonder who did it.

e.g. Poland, USA, Ukraine, to stop any temptation of EU countries making concessions to turn back to Russian gas this winter?

e.g. Literally any country with a grudge against Russia or any powerful person with a grudge against Putin?

e.g. Putin, to avoid any risk of a successor offering ‘peace & gas’ in exchange for support overthrowing Putin? (seems less likely)

e.g. A middle eastern country? e.g. to raise gas/LNG prices even higher while having others more likely to take the blame?

Any other ideas?

3 Likes
4

Upon reflection this evening - I am going to go with ‘probably Russia’. If it was Russia, it would be a prime example of idiotic, self-destructive brinksmanship. In that sense it would be a perfect match with literally everything else they’ve done so far in this invasion.

1 Like
5

CNN says it’s probably sabotage.