Not surprised by two great weeks

The first couple weeks of the year, my portfolio is up 20%. Am I surprised? Not really. I’m pleased that AYX and CRWD (and many of our others) are doing what we expected they would. I’m pleased it’s happened sooner than I expected. I’m pleased that I took such large positions in them in December. But I’m not really shocked…just pleased.

I wrote in mid-Dec that most valuations had actually contracted in 2019. https://discussion.fool.com/ps-contraction-not-expansion-3436363… Why would I be surprised to see them start to expand a bit again?

It’s interesting that ESTC, one of the most contracted in 2019, hasn’t started expanding as much as most of the others so far in 2020. Since it was down so far, and still growing as faster or faster than most, I would have guessed ESTC’s valuation would expand faster than the others instead of slower. A good reminder that we have to own more than one company. We can’t know what the market will do and when.

Conversely, I didn’t expect the bounce for ZS and so I have missed out, as I sold all my shares in December. Oh well. Can’t win them all.

I think a lot of us tend to scratch our heads when the market sells so hard one month and then buys so hard the next, even though we know December is weird: https://discussion.fool.com/december-is-weird-34366738.aspx

I just wanted to remind everyone: this is the ride we’re on. Stocks go up higher and down lower than they rationally should, but that’s where we get some great opportunities.

Hope everyone is doing well in the new year.

Bear

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Bear…The first couple weeks of the year, my portfolio is up 20%.

Earlier this month as the board was going through year end portfolio reviews of a number of the board members, there was a thread in which a number of board members exposed themselves as subscribers to this board, but unable to muster the confidence and courage to maintain a highly concentrated portfolio (to me that is 12 companies or less). I was one and remain one of those board members.

It is at times like these that I am extremely jealous of your courage, conviction and most importantly, your returns. Being up 20% in the first two weeks of the year is envious indeed!

I too am invested heavily in most of the high quality, high growth and highly volatile companies discussed on this board (ZS, CRWD, DDOG, TTD, MDGB, COUP, OKTA, AYX, ESTC) but maintain positions in a total of 61 companies (for those keeping score, I have continued to reduce the size of my portfolio since my pledge earlier this month).

That being said and for comparison sake; my slightly more diversified and watered down portfolio is up only 9.68% YTD compared to Bear’s and most likely many other board members’ portfolios. I continue to work towards the winnowing down of my behemoth portfolio.

But hey; with 61 companies, you too could have had a 27.89% bump in your JMIA holdings today!!! I’ll take that as a small consolation prize!

Harley

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I have missed the ride waiting for funds to come in. However, I still see the valuation as attractive since everything was oversold last year.

since everything was oversold last year.

Last year or 2018? From the bottom on December 24, 2018 (2351.10) to yesterday (3316.81) the S&P 500 is up 41%.

Two year S&P 500 chart: https://softwaretimes.com/pics/spx-01-17-2020.gif

Denny Schlesinger

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