Nowhere to hide...

…or nowhere you’d rather be. Events and circumstances can quickly change one’s outlook and drive one’s behavior.

In real estate, the most important determinant of value is location, location, location. Few would dispute that the most prestigious place to live in America’s most beautiful coastal city is the “occasionally chic, hardly affordable, always elite Pacific Heights,” San Francisco’s most expensive neighborhood.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Heights,_San_Francisco…

However, property values in even the best neighborhoods and cities can be affected when residents don’t feel safe. The following story is instructive:

July 29, 2022 - Dees Stribling, Bisnow National (an online business news aggregator):

After Prologis CEO Hamid Moghadam was robbed at gunpoint in the upscale San Francisco neighborhood of Pacific Heights in June, the real estate executive had harsh words for the city, [announcing]… that the level of crime there is “absolutely unacceptable.”

I would say, right this second, San Francisco is probably the most dysfunctional city in America,” Moghadam said, according to The Real Deal, adding that if public safety doesn’t improve, it wouldn’t be hard for Prologis to relocate its headquarters from the city. [Emphasis added.]

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/industrial/after-armed-…

Prologis is often recognized as the world’s leading owner/landlord of industrial and warehouse properties. Its cash-generating assets are located in almost every major global city.

Mr. Moghadam would surely not want to impair his own San Francisco holdings by moving out because of fear. Especially not if the decision was based on a single encounter with gun-wielding assailants in a city with the strictest gun laws in the nation.

One may reasonably assume that Prologis will remain in San Francisco for cultural, entertainment, and client development reasons. Major commercial tenants from across the US, Asia, Australia, Canada, and Latin America are no doubt accustomed to being wined and dined in style among San Francisco’s elite.

However, policymakers in San Francisco and elsewhere should take note of the fact that lawlessness can easily spread from smash-and-grab luxury good heists to broad-based shoplifting with impunity. We all have heard stories of grocers, drug stores, and coffee shops that have shuttered locations in some formerly desirable urban areas due to crime.

Shinzo Abe was recently assassinated by a gunman in Japan - a nation where guns are extremely rare due to strict controls. The weapon used against Shinzo Abe appears to be handmade, suggesting that even absent legal commercial access to firearms, determined assailants can acquire and use weapons anywhere.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/shooting-…

Can anyone hope for a safer, less violent society when the world’s three most well-armed nations, Russia, China, and the US are overtly threatening one another with violence based on their intentionally provocative behavior?

There truly is nowhere to hide.

Perhaps the most practical solution to personal safety is not based on proximity or access to offensive or defensive weapons at all. Perhaps the most practical solution is to adjust one’s appearance and behavior to avoid being an attractive target for an assailant’s attack.

1 Like

Again, I’d classify this as a clickbait story bashing California. Of course, the guy who was robbed at gunpoint is going to say crime is “totally unacceptable” and the city where it happened is “the most dysfunctional.”

San Francisco is certainly not without problems; however, it has the 37th highest violent crime rate of America’s cities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b…

It isn’t great, but stories like the media almost never writes stories like this about Milwaukee. Not nearly as much of an audience.

9 Likes

I’ve spoken to plenty of people who won’t ride the NYC subway system because of the danger that someone could push them onto the tracks. I explain that in NYC a “one in a million” event happens eight times a day.

How many people died on NYC subway tracks?
Image result for how many nyc subway track accidents per year?
The authority reported 1,267 such intrusions last year, a 19 percent increase from 2020. Two hundred of the 2021 intrusions resulted in people being struck by a train and 68 deaths

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/29/nyregion/nyc-subway-train…

Jeff

1 Like

Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.

San Francisco is certainly not without problems; however, it has the 37th highest violent crime rate of America’s cities.

It isn’t great, but stories like the media almost never writes stories like this about Milwaukee. Not nearly as much of an audience.

My daughter (corporate banker) has spent the majority of 20 years working in San Francisco. She says there are some places you don’t go but other than that quite likes the place. She recently quit her job with BNS to accept an offer with a large US bank that specializes in her specialty … the new office is a block away from the old office … they expect her to show up at work 4 days a week … bummer as the former job often let her work at home 4 days a week. }};-D

Anymouse

Again, I’d classify this as a clickbait story bashing California…San Francisco is certainly not without problems; however, it has the 37th highest violent crime rate of America’s cities.

However, what counts is if the residents feel the city is in disorder. The LA Times (why would they be in the ‘bashing California’ camp?) article in the ‘Exodus’ thread begins with:

"After living in the Bay Area for nearly seven years, Hari Raghavan and his wife decided to leave for the East Coast late last year. They were both working remotely and wanted to leave California because of the high cost of living and urban crime. So they made a list of potential relocation cities before choosing Miami for its sunny weather and what they perceived was a better sense of safety…

“Kahn [a USC professor of economics] also pointed out that urban crime, a growing unhoused population, public school quality and overall quality of life are driving out residents.”

DB2

3 Likes

“My daughter (corporate banker) has spent the majority of 20 years working in San Francisco. She says there are some places you don’t go but other than that quite likes the place”

I was there for 1 whole week in July, lol, walked everywhere, day and night. Only used a rideshare once. Had zero issues. Didn’t even have any scenario where it felt like could be a bad situation
brewing. The homeless encountered were too weak and drugged or alcoholed out to be any issue.
It is uncomfortable mentally walking past someone who is laid out on a sidewalk, but it never felt like a physical risk.

Very much enjoyed SF, liked a day trip to Marin County even more. Real Estate prices are beyond
belief to a working class person such as myself, but other than that there was much to like about
SF.

4 Likes

it has the 37th highest violent crime rate of America’s cities.

But the 4th highest property crime rate.

1 Like

it has the 37th highest violent crime rate of America’s cities.

One’s view also depends upon the neighborhoods where they live/work. With very high real estate prices one may have to live in an iffy neighborhood. When one moves to a lower cost state one can afford to live in an area with lower crime, better schools, whatever’s seen as important.

DB2

Shinzo Abe was recently assassinated by a gunman in Japan - a nation where guns are extremely rare due to strict controls. The weapon used against Shinzo Abe appears to be handmade, suggesting that even absent legal commercial access to firearms, determined assailants can acquire and use weapons anywhere.

Nara, Japan - 1 homemade gun - 1 killed

Virginia Tech - automatic weapon - 32 killed

Newtown, CT - automatic weapon - 20 1st graders & 6 adults killed

Uvalde, TX - automatic weapon - 19 7-10 year olds & 2 teachers killed

Parkland, FL - semi-automatic weapon - 17 killed

Etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.

Alex, I’ll False Equivalents for 1 killed.

AW

30 Likes

San Francisco is certainly not without problems; however, it has the 37th highest violent crime rate of America’s cities.

I generally think that this is overblown.
But I am also curious as how the stats are collected to determine the 37th place.
The DA in SF was just recalled, and for good reasons IMO.
Was his lack of charging of crimes something that affected the numbers that determine 37th place?
I don’t know.
I haven’t been to SF since COVID, but in the few years just before I did notice a large increase in visible crimes in the “better” areas. Visible = addicts with needles on the sidewalks, filth (use your imagination), parked cars smashed, etc. Who knows what the bad areas were like…other than all the videos on the news that showed people (usually elderly) getting knocked to the ground by fun loving idiots.

Mike

But I am also curious as how the stats are collected to determine the 37th place.

37th comes from sorting this list on total violent crime:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b…

It is true that if you sort by all crime SF comes out 7th worst, which is bad. And, I’m sure if you pay huge prices for housing, you probably expect to be insulated from social problems.

But, I stand by my position that California bashing stories are a perennial favorite of the media.

2 Likes

Mike: But I am also curious as how the stats are collected to determine the 37th place.

SF: 37th comes from sorting this list on total violent crime:

My question was more about how the stats are collected that go into that list.
IOW, are consistent rules followed across cities or can a DA, for example, choose to not press charges and thus no crime was committed and counted.

Looking at the footnotes to that list it is instructive to read this:

The FBI web site recommends against using its data for ranking because these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.[4] The FBI web site also recommends against using its data to judge how effective law enforcement agencies are, since there are many factors that influence crime rates other than law enforcement

Mike

1 Like

"After living in the Bay Area for nearly seven years, Hari Raghavan and his wife decided to leave for the East Coast late last year. They were both working remotely and wanted to leave California because of the high cost of living and urban crime. So they made a list of potential relocation cities before choosing Miami for its sunny weather and what they perceived was a better sense of safety…

That’s pretty funny … is Miami safer than than the Bay Area???

7 Likes

They were both working remotely and wanted to leave California because of the high cost of living and urban crime.

That’s pretty funny … is Miami safer than than the Bay Area?

As with all cities, it depends upon your neighborhood. If Miami housing is less expensive than the Bay Area then they can afford to live in a better neighborhood.

DB2

1 Like

Miami Vice vs. Bay Watch?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WCKJ7KaIZY

vs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyKOgnaf0BU

The Captain
used to watch a lot of TV

San Jose, besides Oakland, has the highest crime rates in the BA and is still 40% lower than Miami

https://www.bestplaces.net/crime/?city1=50668000&city2=5…

And Fremont still less expensive than most parts of San Jose, host to the largest Indian Community has almost no crime when compared to Miami

https://www.bestplaces.net/crime/?city1=50626000&city2=5…

This story just doesn’t ring true…

3 Likes