Hi Saul,
Obviously, no one knows for sure, but I solidly expect any gains for our companies due to people working from home to be fairly short-term, except that this might speed up the introduction to new programs and platforms. But if the virus does happen to linger into and through this summer (in our hemisphere) then one would expect business to slow enough down worldwide, and that eventually a considerable number of employees would be laid off.
If you look at market charts during other “catastrophes” you will find that more often than one would expect, the market has risen in these times, often considerably so. This is not to say that the possibility of a pandemic isn’t very serious; it is indeed serious.
Specifically to your question: Yes, short-term, many SaaS companies will probably see (or likely already have seen) some level of a spike in business. But if you lengthen the time frame, and imagine the infections swirling around the globe for more than a few months, you will likely start to also imagine the decline in GDP’s globally which could easily reach the extent where even software and cloud companies could have a hard time reaching their goals, sandbagged or not. Yes, the products save money, but they aren’t free and it takes profits for the circle to complete.
Methinks we’re in rather new territory here, but past calamities do offer a little bit of an idea of how markets and business might react. The good news is that it’s hard to imagine a niche that could have the durability of the cloud and software companies that many of us own.
I think the best (and even the most profitable!) outcome for all concerned, would be for the virus to be contained and eventually eliminated, all rather quickly, and for governments to be mindful for the next epidemic to come along. Then for business to continue as it has been and kicking butt from the cloud.
I suspect that a year from now, one of two things will happen. Hopefully we’ll all be laughing at our “grave concerns” back in early 2020. It’s either that, or a lot of us will be … gone. And of course that isn’t good for business either, not to mention that at 67, I might end up in the wrong pile.
So I vote for Business as Usual, and say let’s take advantage in the market while others are distracted with their breathing masks. Unless we build a giant bunker, what other way is there to play it?
The time to be scared is when Raptor sells AYX below a 20% position. If that happens, forget the above and … RUN LIKE HELL!
Let’s talk stocks. I’m opening the books on NET and LVGO, NET first. Looking good so far.
Dan