<< If I had not sold AAPL more than 20 years ago, it would be up hundreds of times. Sometimes I imagine I still hold it. >>
About 12 years ago when the Apple iPad was first introduced, my friend
bragged about selling her AAPL shares with enough profie to purchase
a brand new iPad.
She no longer brags about selling AAPL 
-Rubic
We had this young man, now in his early 30’s, who was in my community who went to a school for gifted kids— the typical high IQ type. His 3rd grade class did some type of thing with the stock market and he loved Apple products so he put all his pretend money into Apple.
At every social setting his parents had to monitor his “buy Apple” speaches, he was over-the-top telling us all how stupid were were for not owning Apple. None of us even came close to buying Apple, we laughed of course.
So he now works for Google and he was back in town last year and I asked, “Austin, did you ever invest in Applle for real?” He looked at me replied, “Why do you ask that?” I said, “Because you used to rant about it continuously…don’t you remember?”
His reply, “Not really, I don’t remember.” I went over to his mom and dad and asked about it, asked if he was being honest that he didn’t remember. They said, “Yea…isn’t it unbelievable that he just barely remembers his years of Apple obsession.”
The problem I have with Tesla is their valuation relative to other car companies.
A couple of decades go,
Why is Amazon valued differently than Barnes and Nobles ?
Why is Netflix valued differently than Blockbluster ?
We were lucky enough to see the Gigafactory in Austin during the Gigafest.
The difference between the Fremont factory saw it in 2018, and the Austin factory is hard to describe in mathematical terms.
So, all I can say is that the improvements in basic manufacturing along with reduced human labor and more logical work flow are phenomenal.
Am starting Roth IRAs for many of my younger friends and have helped them buy their shares of TSLA online. No tax deductions for that kind of “charity”, but it is so much fun :).
…
IMHO: Listen to R… and others, but R has been on this board a long time and has always had useful things to say.
My take…
This is a Peter Lynch Fast Grower, not a Peter Lynch Stalwart company…
No wait a minute, it might actually be on the cusp of becoming a stalwart! It has little debt and loads of cash. Their new factories cost a fraction of the OEM factories.
WEB admired Lynch… his categories are very useful.
But that is just my humble opinion.
Sincerely,
jan
:^)
bigshan incorrectly stated: The waiting list to get a [Tesla] is over a year (it has been so for many years, not just in the past two)
This may or may not have been correct for some specific Tesla(s) at some point, but it’s not now for any. I just went to their site and did some custom builds and not one of the estimated delivery ranges extended out to a year. I’ve seen posts where other people did this some time ago with similar results.
Model 3 rear drive or dual motor long range both estimated delivery: Sept-Dec 2022.
Model 3 Performance: June-Aug 2022
Model Y long range estimated delivery Nov. 2022 - Feb 2023
Model Y Performance July-Sept 2022
Model S dual motor Oct 2022-Jan 2023
Model S Plaid inventory available now.
Tesla has been raising prices, so I expect that may have moderated the waitlists a bit.
This may or may not have been correct for some specific Tesla(s) at some point, but it’s not now for any. I just went to their site and did some custom builds and not one of the estimated delivery ranges extended out to a year. I’ve seen posts where other people did this some time ago with similar results.
Is it due to zip code / location?
I do for the cheapest Model Y
Order your Model Y
Est. Delivery: Feb 2023 - May 2023
Model Y Long Range Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Pearl White Paint
19" Gemini Wheels
All Black Premium Interior
Five Seat Interior
Autopilot
30-Day Premium Connectivity Trial
Vehicle Price $62,990
Just found that T… does not only lack a cheap car for Europe’s and other markets but in the meantime additionally has strong competition in it’s own narrow luxury segment.
My take after reading reviews of the new Genesis GV60 Premium: Far preferable (for me) to a Model 3 for the same price. But the real deal is the Genesis GV60 Sport Plus: So much more (and soooo much better looking inside) than a Model S for so much less.
Companies such as Toyota and VW are not incompetent. What do you think, is Tesla over valued or the other car companies a long term bargain? Or do you honestly feel Tesla represents half the value of the entire car industry?
For a long time when I was more in it, people would say about the smartphone market that Apple had 25% of the market share but nearly 100% share of the profits. Apple had figured out how to build something worth 25% more to consumers with the same basket of materials that the other companies built their smartphones out of. The only way the other companies could stay in the business was to sell for nearly no profit.
I think we may be in for quite a few years of that with Tesla and the other automakers.
R:)
So your BRK went up 15x in 25 years, his TSLA went up 15x in 3 years.
Does that really seem like the same thing to you?
Yogi Berra:
No one goes to that restaurant anymore because it is too crowded.
Said2:
T[esla] will quickly fall back even more for a very simple reason if they do not very soon offer a much cheaper car.
Yogi: the reason it is crowded is because MORE people are going there.
Said2: Tesla makes 50% more cars every year, raises their prices a few times a year, and STILL has a waiting list of the better part of a year to get a new car. They would have to be idiots to offer their insanely profitable factory space to a cheaper car right now. Is there a reason to think that they will not do this when they finally catch their supply up with their demand for their currently produced models? With the SEMI and the CYBERTRUCK ready to go if and when demand slackens, I suspect it will be a few more gigafactories before they can build more cars than they can sell.
90% of investing is half mental.
My take after reading reviews of the new Genesis GV60 Premium: Far preferable (for me) to a Model 3 for the same price. But the real deal is the Genesis GV60 Sport Plus: So much more (and soooo much better looking inside) than a Model S for so much less.
When you come to a fork in the road, take it!
I don’t need you to buy a Model 3 and I don’t need the people buying VW.ID4s to buy model 3s. Just the people who keep adding themselves to the waiting list will do OK for me.
Apple made almost all the profits in smartphones for years, selling only about 25% of all smartphones sold. If Tesla does something like that with cars, will its stock be as stupid to buy as Apple’s was all those years? I can live with that.
R:
90% of investing is half mental.
And 90% of investors are half mental : )
Thanks for the belly laugh, Jim!
Cheers!
Murph
So your BRK went up 15x in 25 years, his TSLA went up 15x in 3 years.
Does that really seem like the same thing to you?
No, of course it does not. Neither of them mean very much. It depends on the objectives of the individuals, the performances of the companies, the performances of the market investors and speculators, … .
12 May 2022 Chompin:
OK, here it is and if I am wrong I expect to be publicly restrained…and beaten:
Tesla, from its current stock price, is in the process of being cut in half before the downturn is over.
TSLA up ~$150 since you wrote that.
But I suspect the 3:1 stock split they just announced will render your prediction literally correct.
How did you knowZ
R:)
Chompin: … Tesla, from its current stock price, is in the process of being cut in half before the downturn is over
RaphlCramden: TSLA up ~$150 since you wrote that
I make no more predictions about T… (was too costly) but re “downturn” I have a question: Who says it’s over (and not just a break/bull trap)?
Wait, what!?
I thought it was, “dollar cost average into the Index, get rich slow”?
Why pretend to be an indexer?
Did you “buy much more” Tesla?
It’s down 50%, how does that compare to the index?
Asking for a friend.
I am dollar cost averaging TSLA. Increased my allocation quite a bit. I am very happy with the progress and the business fundamentals and sitting on 400%+ returns. Company is Profitable, Innovating and Growing. Tesla is just getting started and already miles ahead: Charging network, Batteries, EVs, Autonomous, Robotics, AI/ML. I work with AI/ML so know this space quite well.
I also bought quite a few Jan 2025 leaps. My time horizon is 2030+.
Great call by the old dealraker BTW!
TSLA down about 38% since his prediction…
Still selling for 49X earnings. 12.7X book. For those who care about such trivial details.
(And yes, I know, Tesla stock went up in the past so it must go up in the future, got it.
Also Mr. Musk has put shareholder money into bitcoin and dodgecoin so how can you lose?)
Ole dealraker, as is the norm, says: "Slow down; the story ain’t over…
…til it is over!"
Life is great…if you can stand it.
And E just sold yet another chunk of stock. Still grossly over-valued!