Yeah, even Musk is a seller, maybe he reads your posts!
From CNBC…
“CEO Elon Musk has sold about 22 million more shares of his electric vehicle business, which were worth around $3.6 billion. The transactions took place between Monday and Wednesday of this week.
Earlier this year, Musk told his millions of followers on social media that he had “no further TSLA sales planned” after April 28.”
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“At risk of stating obvious, beware of debt in turbulent macroeconomic conditions, especially when Fed keeps raising rates” This is the type of tweet that suggests one is about to file another Form 4 revealing additional sales of the shares underlying massive loans. Didn’t even want to wait for Jan. 1st to defer the tax bill.
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TSLA down to $137/share = $411 pre split. Getting close to some of the values discussed earlier in this thread from May.
To me, it finally seems in a reasonable valuation range for a high growth company with the potential to grow earnings quickly. So the current valuation is less of an issue than it used to be. Still not “cheap” but justifiable if it can grow earnings. Some of the excessive fanbase support has kind of come out of the valuation, which is nice.
Now the question is no longer about pure valuation, but whether the underlying earnings growth is still sustainable. Some of the folks who would, in the past, have been TSLA buyers no longer want to buy TSLA and competitive EV offerings (which in the past seemed not really credible) finally seem to be maturing into viable alternatives. So 2 out of 3 bear case storylines that Ralph mentioned way back are at least getting some traction even if not at the extremes.
This could be an interesting point to really analyze TSLA as a potential buy. In that past, it seemed to me like a bit of a futile exercise because the analysis couldn’t really justify the valuation without faith that TSLA could take over many more sectors of the economy than just cars. You had to value the real options (e.g., the real world call options) bundled into the company. I had no way to do that well. But now, I think you could actually try to analyze the prospects for its businesses realistically and see if the valuation is justifiable.
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Again…the story isn’t over. Yep, ole dealraker says the story ain’t over yet.
Elon? He’s just Elon, nothing more and nothing less.
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What are you trying to say in this post? I am not sure what this means.
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Elon and his folks are a product of an inflated stock price, nothing more and nothing less. The little boy enjoys fireworks in a rich kids manner, that’s called rocket ships, and such whatnot. Oh yea, there’ll be a few parabolic moves in the symbol TSLA but the game ends and we move on. Obssessions and obsessors move on from one thing to another genrerally, but there will be a few who get stuck on the Elon and they’ll spend a lifetime pretending.
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OK, my last post. I began with a silly post and I’m done with it. I had absolutely no idea or concern as to Tesla’s price, it was simply that Tesla bulls dominated the Berkshire board and it was at least to some of us annoying. So I annoyed too.
None of us have a snowball’s chance in hades of predicting Tesla’s future. Toss the dice and live with it, and him, and let life pass while you watch. It won’t be boring!
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Speak for yourself. I have confidence in Tesla doing very very well.
div, that’s you and Ron Baron together. The sky’s the limit.
You’ve proved yourself repeatedly as a genius here, I’ll not argue with that. I’m just at times confused about how you’ve gotten so superior to me. But I’m all praise…all the time.
I should have invested with you along the way but I tragically thought wrong!
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Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!
The hurdle is low. Just kidding. Take a victory lap on Tesla. You deserve it.
With Tesla, I have my convictions and a long time horizon: 2030.
I am increasing my allocation and getting ready to swing big.
This board is becoming more like a betting place, not a place for discussions with facts and reasoning.
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That is because all the folks who talk about facts and reasoning are over on the other board. You should join there for that type of discussion. This board is just a place for people who want to tout their belief about the future without current valuation analysis, only references to how things have gone in the past, speculation on whether S&P500, TSLA or BRK will win in the future, and how solving humanity’s problems will make for unequal returns.
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I did some days ago. There are still more people posting on this board than the other one. It’s interesting to see which one will emerge as winner.
div I suspect when all is done that Ron Baron will have a net loss on Tesla. Now it really isn’t about Tesla, it is simply that with all these raging successes most pile on after much of the success is long passed priced it and things are crazy.
So my next prediction is simply that: When all is done Ron Baron, Mr. Tes believer in overdrive, will have a net loss on the “name” or whatnot.
Seen this too many times. And I’m not saying that Tesla isn’t or wont’ be a car company that exists for many years.
The Saul’s board, one after another participant is bailing (we go nuts in crowds…and get sane one by one), and without a doubt Saul will have destroyed multiple times the value he personally claims to have from “valuation is against the board rules” wild speculation.
I’m looking past Tesla, SAAS stocks, and Bitcoin…I wanna see the next parabolic mania early. I won’t participate but I do enjoy watching! The big three though are past their prime.
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Speaking of the Saul board, not a peep in three days. The quietude over there is both a sign of the catastrophe that is mindless momentum investing masquerading as growth investing, and a sign of how effectively the brothers Grimm have “improved “ the boards to death.
Time to migrate to shrewdom and enjoy the foolish boards as they used to be:
http://www.digitalscores.com/MB?command=listBoards
Heck, even Mungofitch has returned.
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I don’t care about what Ron Baron says or does. I care about what Elon says.
I believe Tesla’s business is a much better today than a couple of years ago. It will be a much bigger company 3,5,10 from now.
It is easy to say “be greedy when others are fearful”, “low price is a good”, “long term”
but most investors are short term and toggle between panic and euphoria.
By 2030 where will Tesla be? Energy, EVs, Autonomy, Robotaxi, Optimus, Super Chargers, Batteries.
I am accumulating 2025 leaps. Hoping shares go lower and stay lower.
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Speaking of the Saul board, not a peep in three days. The quietude over there…
… I think is simply the result of now having to “Request” the allowance to post instead of as before everyone being able to do so.
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div as is always the case it takes a few years but inevitably I become aware that many who play this momentum stock/business hero thing are not experienced and thus subject to getting just that. You’ve got some insight coming, I just hope you end up with a profit on Tesla…but my guess is that you won’t.
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If Saul was interested in pure momentum investing, he would have switched to oil and energy stocks long ago. Instead, he picks stocks based on annual sales growth , preferably 30% or higher, and preferably where that growth is more predictable. That’s why he likes SaaS companies. Don’t forget that Salesforce, a SaaS company, had extreme price fluctuations in its early years, but is now a member of the Dow.
Saul has a 30-year track record of delivering 20%+ annualized returns. He’s had multi-year returns that easily beat Peter Lynch’s and Buffett’s returns in comparable periods. Every legendary investor has down years. Buffett has been down more than 50% twice - during 1998-99 and during 2008-2009. Munger used to run his own fund in the 1970’s, but he closed it down after losing more than 50% in the '73-'74 bear market. People who followed Munger and purchased BABA early last year were losing 50% on that investment last October.
The readers of this board have different goals from the readers at Saul’s. Here, people are mostly retired and interested in capital preservation. At Saul’s board, people are largely working professionals in their wealth-building years who are investing money they don’t need for at least 5 to 10 years or more.
Incidentally, Saul actually lays out his criteria for picking stocks at How I pick a company to invest in Please read it. You won’t find the word “momentum” anywhere in it.
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