On Growth & Momentum, Effort and return, Conviction and ETFs

It was eye opening for me today to consider that the Nasdaq is still up over 30% this year even with a negative August. For all the in-and-out trading on growth momentum, the potential for losses disregarded as Wash sales, and for all the time invested…

Seems to me those successful around here are the ones who had big, outsized gains in a specific window while running a concentrated portfolio when they recognized that the rest of the world including WS insiders weren’t really laser focused yet on understanding the true impact that explosive growth, recurring revenue and high margins could have on perceived value.

Perhaps during these lulls between innovative investing ‘a-ha! moments’ and prior to the next liquidity cycle, it sure is easier to own either companies you’re content to own for a decade with a very high bar for divesting or low-cost ETFs.

All tongue-in-cheek. Sort of. Not really. I might be selling all my shares in $BILL, $AXON, $NVDA, $TSLA, $TTD, $DDOG, $IOT, $AEHR and dumping it into QQQ. :grinning:


TSLA vs. QQQ, 5 year chart

Don’t dump winners, avoid losers.

Denny Schlesinger


You might be interested in Ms. Wood’s ARKK, up over 43% YTD. I’m not in it, but the ETF is outperforming my portfolio by a long shot.


Of course ARKK is at 32% of where it was on Jan 1, 2021 (more than two years eight months ago), so not exactly a category killer.


Cathie Wood always says give me 5 years, well ARKK is down 9.4% over the last 5 years. Compare that to many on this board!


For those wondering about the long term results of investing this way, the following comes right from my end of the year summary at the end of last year.

2017 – up         84.2%
2018 – up         71.4%
2019 – up         28.4%
2020 – up        233.3%
2021 – up         39.6%
2022 – down       68.4%    

Cumulative – up  496.0% 

And Kathy Wood’s ARKK was only down 9.4% in the last five years.

Granted that my portfolio being up 496% was for the last six years. If we cut out 2017 to make it the last five full years, it was “only” up 223%.

And if we add in the 26.6% it was up this year as of last Friday, it’s up 309% in the last 5 full years plus 8 months of this year.

[For the calculation, starting with $100, at the end of last year being up 223%, I had $323 total. $323 gaining 26.6% gives you $409, or up $309.]




Yes, that was my point. This board crushes it! Cathie Wood is all over CNBC and other outlets and hailed as a great investor by some, yet her returns really aren’t very good. Multiple times a week I see an article that goes something like “this is what Cathie Wood is buying” or “this is what Cathie Wood is selling.” etc. ARKK is up 113% since inception in 2014, almost 9 years, which means it is losing to the S&P 500. Ouch, not exactly a Peter Lynch here.


wow! That comment kicked up some dust. I wasn’t making a recommendation to buy ARKK. I don’t hold an ARKK position (or any other ARK* shares either). It was just an observation about YTD performance which happens to be pretty good. That’s all. Nothing more.