One of these things is not like the other

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

Consumer Sentiment Falls to Lowest Level in Years

Consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level in years - #2 by steve203

US Loses AAA Rating

U.S. loses AAA Rating - #15 by captainccs

S&P Closing In On 6,000

S&P 500 closing in on 6,000 - #2 by buynholdisdead

15 Likes
2

I’m hoping we get another shot at the pull back.

I do feel like “we” are trying our best on that.

It’s early days, day 115s or so, lotsa time.

However, eventually the courts could squash executive authority on tariffs and eliminate that “plan.”

3

Dear Goofy,

You are only dealing in facts.

You know nothing about “strategic uncertainty”.

2 Likes
4

I was looking for a retest of the early 2009 low. Never happened. I left a pile on the table before I got back in around August of that year. In November of 16, I was expecting the sort of chaos we have seen the last few months. Never happened. I left another stack on the table. Now, I take another nibble of VOO each week, and call it good.

Steve

2 Likes
5

I’m ok either way. Only a bigger pullback really interests me.

If market just wants to go up, well, thats worked for 15 years.

I only consider 2008-2009 to be the last real painful declines.

Covid was a flash. Same for last 2 months, a blip so far.

Edit: I forgot 2022, S&P just touched -20%. Nadaq 100 did better and declined more than 30%.

This is all index I am discussing, single names is whole different story.

6

2009 was a once-in-a-lifetime anomaly, a total lockup of the US economy.

There is a road across town, chock full of used car dealers - not the corporate, hand-me-down new car dealers’ lots, but the curbstoners, auto auction, “FREE CREDIT - NO OFFER REFUSED” guys, and it runs for miles. In 2009 that stretch of road was nothing but empty asphalt parking lots, even some of the shanty-trailer/offices had been repossessed.

We do not want to see that again. But when the reality of a nice, normal recession comes round there will be plenty of bones to pick over, and even some quality names will go on sale as they usually do at such times. Another 6 -10 months, I’d say.

7

Unless we change the tax structure and some of the lax laws that is the new normal every so many years.