There are many who are looking at Europe for investing, I stay away from it, because it is a big mess. Europe, in their misguided renewal energy policy, they basically subjugated their energy sovereignty to Russia. Europe has centuries of conflict with Russia to know they are not their reliable partner, yet here we are. Europe’s negative interest experiment and now trying to raise interest rate is going to create massive upheaval in their bond market. To being with their banks are weak. The mark-to-market on their bond holding that carry negative interest is going to seriously challenge their capital. This is Europe we are talking, so they may very well rewrite laws that excludes EU banks. But before that happens they are going to go through some serious financial crisis and that is going to take down their stock market. ECB just acknowledged this yesterday when they raised interest rates and simultaneously started a new QE program, to be activated in crisis. A central banks is starting a program anticipating crisis.
Stay away from Europe or at least wait for the crisis to hit.
Europe is using Russian gas to fill the gap while it expands renewables.
Renewables are great, but there is base load, that has to have a stable supply. Even seemingly smart people who argue for renewables in the name of science seems to have a comprehension problem and refuse the reality.
We will get there, but today we are not there. Europe’s dependence on Russia is emboldening Russia is a simple geo-political reality. Of course Europe and US will not acknowledge their contributions to this war. It is not absolving Putin, but there are other players share some blame.
While these Caucasian nations playing war games, the rest of the world, specially, poor nations, developing nations, who have no stakes here, are paying significant price. Of course the bleeding hearts of West don’t have any tears left for those unfortunate nations and its citizens.
Europe is using Russian gas to fill the gap while it expands renewables. It is a major economy and is likely to recover. But a falling knife until the energy problem is resolved. Watch for a bottom.
As I live in Europe, I’m just waiting for a bottom in the gas supply. (the euro too, but a different thread)
I have two places. I’ve already replaced the gas boiler in one with an electric one because of the war.
This past Friday I was getting quotes on a high temp heat pump for the other one.
There are some very cool “four pipe” ones that simultaneously produce water at 60C for the taps and at 7C for the air conditioning.
Since they work by moving heat from a hot living room to a kitchen tap, the efficiency is quite astounding during the periods you need both.
Expensive, but (a) no gas bills after that, and (b) maybe there won’t be any gas.
There are some very cool “four pipe” ones that simultaneously produce water at 60C for the taps and at 7C for the air conditioning. Since they work by moving heat from a hot living room to a kitchen tap, the efficiency is quite astounding during the periods you need both.
This sounds great, I’ve not heard of a system that does both at the same time before but it makes a lot of sense. Do you have a make/model that I could look up? I wonder if they’re available in the US yet.
I’ve put a few heat-pump water heaters into my rentals, which drastically cut the electricity used when replacing an electric heat pump. They do also produce cool air when operating, but it’s not designed to be functional as air conditioning rather as just a side effect that may be useful if your utility room or garage is hot in the summer, or less than useful if it’s chilling air within the living space in the winter. Mine have all gone into unheated basements or crawlspaces so far, so no effect either way, though I appreciate the minor bit of dehumidification they provide down there.
Stay away from Europe or at least wait for the crisis to hit.
As Jim said there is a price for everything. In case of Europe that’s the Euro which pays the price for the ECB’s policy to save the heavily indebted countries (mainly Italy) with their interest and bond buying policy, effectively financing their debts and therefore those countries — which Btw is illegal.
If I were living in the US and had too much strong $ I would be interested because I think all that is already priced in the Euro. Interested mainly in German companies in case the Euro breaks apart. Unfortunately the few I had a look at (Bayer, Siemens, VW, Lufthansa plus the Spanish Santander) I found not exactly convincing.
Btw: Several of my German neighbors recently invested in enough solar cells + storage capacity to be electricity and heating wise self-sufficient
If I were living in the US and had too much strong $ I would be interested because I think all that is already priced in the Euro.
No. If you think USD will eventually weak, then invest in commodities. Don’t trade one currency for another currency. Frankly, I consider Euro should be lot less valuable. European countries have (artificially) managed keep the value of their currency high. But the currency can be broken with couple of countries going into real crisis. OF course one can argue, euro survived Greece. I am talking about couple of countries electing leaders who want to print, just like US did during COVID.
I don’t think Euro can withstand that. Euro is a fancy notion, experiment. Separate legal entities sharing a single legal tender is “interesting”.
P.S.: To avoid misunderstandings re my “in case the Euro breaks apart”: It won’t. The strong countries will continue to grumbling and complaining pay for the weak ones, pay the price for peace.
the Euro which pays the price for the ECB’s policy to save the heavily indebted countries (mainly Italy)
That was true at one time. In more recent years, though, Italy’s debt situation is not unlike that of most of the rest of Europe. The more immediate problem is the rising potential for an authoritarian regime to take power in Italy.
PS: DW and I were considering Tuscany or Veneto as a possible refuge should a certain political party regain control of the US government in 2024. May need to rethink that.
is sounds great, I’ve not heard of a system that does both at the same time before but it makes a lot of sense. Do you have a make/model that I could look up? I wonder if they’re available in the US yet.
They’re available.
The problem is that they tend to be aimed at commercial sites, so there aren’t many small ones.
There is very little that is available at residential scale.
The problem is that the places needing both hot and cold at the same time are generally hotels, supermarkets, data centres and so forth.
The few that are available are from brands that (some say) don’t have 100% reputations for reliability.
Nobody wants something that requires annual maintenance.
It’s kind of like SSDs 10 years ago: They exist, but aimed mainly at the business customers.
Maybe we have to give it time.
But, a random example, the Hidros LZTi “4 pipe” systems, and several larger models. Made in Italy.
For example, I’m looking into the LZT P4 NN 452.
Another company, Enerblue, has some products. LG has some interesting ones, Therma V and so forth, but not (as far as I can see) simultaneous heat and cooling.
The brand I want is Daikin, sort of the Rolls Royce of HVAC, but I’m not sure they have what I want yet.
I clipped a dozen brochures and gave them to my local contractor, he is going to research and propose something.
But it looks like that, given the current range of products that are available, appropriately sized, and reliable,
I might have to settle for a high-temp heat pump that produces hot and very hot but not cold.
Still, it would cover tap (high temp) hot water, radiator (high temp) hot water, and underfloor heat (lower temp) hot water, with no gas line.
were considering Tuscany or Veneto as a possible refuge … May need to rethink that
Provence instead?
A long-time favorite of mine. Or a new discovery? Portugal? Been there 3x this year. Lisbon is the most peaceful Metropolis(?) I ever experienced, not noisy, friendly, no stress at all, even super-relaxed motorists, having all the time in the world. The same goes for the rest of Portugal, Algarve with Lagos etc. Caused apparently by the Portuguese mentality. That plus the weather resulting in many Expats everywhere.
Berkshire owners with too many A’s can buy fantastic mansions with sea view, neighboring world-renowned golf courses. B owners still get nice houses in areas most wouldn’t complain about. And all of that quite far away from where the trouble is. Mhm, sounding like a realtor (of which Portugal has masses, as it’s very open to foreigners, actively attracting them; easier to get a 5 year visa and then a passport than at any other decent European place).
The more immediate problem is the rising potential for an authoritarian regime to take power in Italy.
It’s an unfortunate thought, but there are quite a few plausible ways to change the last word in that sentence.
The tendency of the UK to shoot itself in the economic foot is remarkable, but heck, now they’re looking safer than some other notionally civilized places.
Perhaps it’s better to be invested in a place with a knack of muddling through than a place that thinks it’s a good idea to live in interesting times.
A long-time favorite of mine. Or a new discovery? Portugal? Been there 3x this year. Lisbon is the most peaceful Metropolis(?) I ever experienced, not noisy, friendly, no stress at all, even super-relaxed motorists, having all the time in the world.
Great minds think alike, said2 my friend. We have not been to Portugal for several years but loved it when we visited. We were finally able to return to our spot in Provence this year and had a wonderful stay, got to know all our neighbors better and prices look pretty good relative to the US. In spite of that, we have been talking about Portugal quite a bit due to the easy visa requirements, and the fact that we just like it there.
We need to sit down in the Var with a pichet of Rose’ and compare notes sometime!
Or a new discovery? Portugal? Been there 3x this year.
Actually, we had a trip all lined up for Portugal this past May–even emailed with Denny (captainccs here on TMF) about possible places to stay. But nearly everything was booked, and Covid rates were skyrocketing there, as well. So we ended up in Paris instead … and caught Covid on the flight home as the penalty for removing our masks for 15 minutes to eat! (All good now.)
DW and I were considering Tuscany or Veneto as a possible refuge should a certain political party regain control of the US government in 2024. May need to rethink that.
Remember that governments may welcome rich tourists and grant a tourist visa, but are reluctant to grant immigration visas.
As Catherine Austin Fitts has said, always have enough physical gold to bribe the border guard.
Renewables are great, but there is base load, that has to have a stable supply. Even seemingly smart people who argue for renewables in the name of science seems to have a comprehension problem and refuse the reality.
Diversification of sources helps. You hope the wind does not stop blowing everywhere at once.
Energy storage technologies are the usual solution. Pumped water storage is traditional. Batteries are being used some places. People talk about lifting a heavy elevator. Or driving an electric train up a steep grade.
There are also proposals to compress air in underground chambers.
Many ideas are out there. Our main problem is inadequate investment. Resulting in less capacity than required.
Great minds think alike, said2 my friend
Right! And the 2nd time now you are saying that, after we found a few years ago that we both are attracted to Southern France (Cotignac, Entrevaux etc.)
We were finally able to return to our spot in Provence this year… got to know all our neighbors better
“Our spot”? Does that mean you bought? Or holidaying and renting the same place as years ago?
We need to sit down in the Var with a pichet of Rose’ and compare notes sometime!
Absolutely!!!
We didn’t get hear overnight and expecting the solutions to be developed overnight is unrealistic. When you force a solution beyond a level, it will have its own undesired consequences. While Europe and USA declared economic sanctions, it didn’t stop Europe from continuing to get energy from Russia, or food supplies. Then who is affected?
Poor nations are affected. The nations who relied on Russian, Ukraine wheat are affected.
They’re available. The problem is that they tend to be aimed at commercial sites, so there aren’t many small ones. There is very little that is available at residential scale. The problem is that the places needing both hot and cold at the same time are generally hotels, supermarkets, data centres and so forth.
Here in the southern US, AC is widespread, and of course everyone still needs hot water in the summer when the AC is cranking all the time. It would be a sweet solution, as you say, to take the room heat and dump it into the water heater tank instead of the air outside.
Thanks for the idea. I’ll keep an eye out for them coming to the residential market here. The heat pump water heaters I’ve put in have done well. The first two were GEs, but they unfortunately discontinued theirs, which was the most affordable one available. The latest was a Rheem, quite a bit more pricey but it should still pay back in reduced electric bills within 5 years or so, and sports a 10 year warranty.
