OT: EV enthusiasm.

I see that LG Energy, the world’s second largest EV battery maker and supplier for the Muskmobile, has gone public.

The offering was a tad oversubscribed…the number of bids worked out to US$9.65 trillion. With a T.

Now, the EV market may become massive, but it’s hard not to have the sneaking suspicion that volume battery making won’t be the high-margin end of it.
In the same way that it’s better to own Apple than to own Hon Hai?

They are trading now, market cap a mere $100bn or so.
I must be getting old…that used to be a big number.

Jim
(not long this one)

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They are trading now, market cap a mere $100bn or so.
I must be getting old…that used to be a big number.

Yes. Remember this?

“A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money” – attributed to Everett Dirksen (1896-1969)

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https://dirksencenter.org/research-collections/everett-m-dir…

Did Dirksen ever say, " A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money"? (or anything very close to that?)

Perhaps not. Based on an exhaustive search of the paper and audio records of The Dirksen Congressional Center, staffers there have found no evidence that Dirksen ever uttered the phrase popularly attributed to him.

It’s still a good line. Maybe they should just run with it.

Rob

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History is rich with innovation and huge market caps. It would be interesting to see what percentage of market cap the 250 auto makers were in the early 1900’s, then the 44 or so remaining by the late 1920’s.

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Did Dirksen ever say, " A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money"? (or anything very close to that?)

Perhaps not. Based on an exhaustive search of the paper and audio records of The Dirksen Congressional Center, staffers there have found no evidence that Dirksen ever uttered the phrase popularly attributed to him.

It’s still a good line. Maybe they should just run with it.

One person said he met Dirkson at an airport (or on a plane, I disremember which) and Dirkson said he never said that, but he liked it so much he never denied it. Of course that person may have been making it up. Who knows.

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“History is rich with innovation and huge market caps. It would be interesting to see what percentage of market cap the 250 auto makers were in the early 1900’s, then the 44 or so remaining by the late 1920’s.”
Recall, at last year’s virtual annual meeting, Mr. Buffett displayed a sheet of paper taken from a published list of automobile companies that were adjudicated bankrupt in one year (early 30’s), and his list covered only auto manufacturers whose names began with the letter M.
(He may have been cautioning shareholders to guard against enthusiasm, over investment in electric cars?)

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cap that was obviously a completely crazy reply. You are specifying one business in an industry while the post was about the industry overall. The industry isn’t collapsing whatsoever, it is expanding.

A more modern analogy would be Amazon V. Retail Businesses or Apple V. Phone Makers or Google V. Map Makers. The physical world is collapsing onto digital networks and ICE/EV makers will be no exception.

Amazon, Apple and EV makers are not in the physical world? Am I lost in a digital meta-verse, a butterfly dreaming it’s a man - I mean a Matrix agent?

And I continue to believe that Tesla, the obsession today, will at some point not be the obsession whatsoever. cap, and others, will be on a value investing board chanting mightedly about some security selling for 100 times earnings with a hero CEO with the oppositional characteristics that are so enticing and attractive to many.

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As I have written here previously, I am a shareholder of NIO. I bought the stock a $2.50 and at one point it quickly became a 20 bagger. What did I think? Well, I thought the stock was worth somewhere between $5 and $50 depending on earnings that won’t come for decades.

We value Tesla on decades out earnings today. Elon, the most stable guy on the planet leads the charge.

EV entities will dominate the world’s economy and of course the stock market for the forseeable future. Bullcrap.

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WEB often has cautioned about looking in the rear view mirror instead of looking forward.

IIRC he used a Wayne Gretzgi (spelling error, sorry) about always skating to where the puck will be, not where it has been.

Looking forward is harder, but surely better?

Sincerely,

jan

:^)

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The big three in Detroit may not make it.

The Chinese EV car companies are really strong.

VW has troubles ahead. Stelantis is in a hurtlocker.

IMHO…

We value Tesla on decades out earnings today.

Of course you base this on absolutely no knowledge. In fact, Tesla is undervalued based on earnings anticipated if it just continues to do what it has been doing for the next two or three years in vehicle sales only.

Tesla has been growing vehicle deliveries exponentially (really, over 50% per year) for the past ten years. All the while growing margins and free cash flow as well. What they’ve done is pretty much impossible. And yet, they say they will continue at the same pace, and there seems to be nothing to stop them from doing so, at least not for another seven or eight years. See this nice chart as an eye opener: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4045651/.

Meanwhile, this completely ignores other aspects of their business, like insurance, energy, robotics, and software enhancements (like autonomy). Any earnings from those and other things will be accretive.

So, really, all you are doing with your disbelief is saying you know nothing about Tesla. You were ignorant and wrong a couple of years back, and you continue to be ignorant and wrong. Not all that helpful if you are trying to be a good investor. Possibly you should read earnings reports rather than whatever your current sources of misinformation happen to be. You can find Tesla’s at (https://ir.tesla.com).

-IGU-
(owner of Teslas and TSLA)

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