OT - Market

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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A few key data points. Please, no responses, yet I wanted to post these given the worst S&P December ever.

Interest Rates. The average Fed Funds rate since 1954 has been 4.82%. This market went crazy last week w Powell’s 25bps push to 2.5%…with the possibility of going to 3.00%. Source of the 4.82% data point ---- https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c….

Unemployment is at 3.7% yet the average since 1950 is 5.79%. https://www.macrotrends.net/1316/us-national-unemployment-ra….

Inflation is 2.24% w no signs of it getting higher yet the average since 1950 is 3.53%. https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/historical-inflation-rate-b…

Fear and Greed Index at 2. Not re-posting that link as I have originally posted it some months ago and know that Saul has also spoken to it recently.

Forward PE down below 14.52 ---- below the 25 year mean. http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/2011/12/16/09414959ae.htm

CNBC is literally all negative. First four/cover stories right now are all political/Trump related.

Anyway, on interest rates, unemployment, inflation, current state of US economy (forward PE in particular), what we’re seeing doesn’t make sense…to me anyway.

I continue to be very long our growth stocks as I believe the are all long-term secular winners, even if for some reason the US economy does go south. My top 10 continue to be AMZN, TTD, ZS, BA (one that I know is asset heavy but I believe still has a long runway (no pun intended), ABMD, MELI, AYX, TWLO, MDB, BRKB (a bit of conservatism at play by me there).

As always, best to all. And please, no responses to this as I’m off topic, yet felt this was a relevant post given the carnage and general growth mindset to this board. Feel free to reply to me off-board as you like.

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If you know and acknowledge that it is OT and if you don’t want responses, why do you post at all?

BTW, if I want Market Noise I will turn on the TV set I haven’t had in 25 years.

Denny Schlesinger

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Denny or if you really want noise you can go to the NPI board.

Robert

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Denny and Robert, let’s drop it. We don’t need arguments here. This is a place for civil discussions.
Thanks
Saul

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Sorry, Denny, but I have no idea what this is all about but it sounds like a “He said…”, “No, he said…” exchange. I hope it’s over.
Saul

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“Anyway, on interest rates, unemployment, inflation, current state of US economy (forward PE in particular), what we’re seeing doesn’t make sense…to me anyway.”

But there’s also herd behavior, interest rate increases combined with high debt, general political uncertainty, anticiated lower profitability of many high-profile companies (e.g., FAAAAANG).

And when in doubt, some people just sell and then don’t have to think about it any more.

Personally, I’m wishing I held more Alteryx (and Mongo! Twilio! anything with a weird name that deals with data!) and less Micron (even the name says “too small”!). :slight_smile:

Is there anything with a weird name that deals with data that is not doing well?

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And when in doubt, some people just sell and then don’t have to think about it any more.

This behavior is rooted in reality. A simple example, during a bank run the first in line get their money, the last don’t. The economy is about managing scarce resources – get yours while you can.

You have to know (or believe) something the herd ignores to be a contrarian and you have to be right to be successful.

Denny Schlesinger

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