Because of the cold water off California Hillary will weaken rapidly. Most likely it will be in the tropical storm category by the time it hits California.
That, and the forecast track has it making landfall in Mexico - and interacting with the Baja California landmass as far as 600 miles south of the California border.
Still, as a longtime Floridian, our California friends should not take this lightly. If it stays on the current track, Baja California should weaken it considerably before US landfall - but if it follows the more westerly portion of the forecast range, it might spend more time over water and hit with higher intensity.
As a resident of Southern California, I very much appreciate this explanation of the cat scale.
I’m also very aware of the facts of the storm and it’s predicted track. I am not taking this lightly, nor am I getting my panties in a wad. The most likely outcome for us is the strange combination of winds comparable to a Santa Ana wind event combined with a bunch of rain. There is an outside chance the storm center could stay just off shore, which would bring stronger winds - potentially up into the tropical storm range. But our relatively cold water off the So Cal cost kills off tropical storms pretty quickly - which is why they are so rare here. Remains of storms happen from time to time, but they’re usually just a bit of rain with little added wind by the time they get to us.
Then there’s a low pressure system off shore and a high pressure system inland. That combination will push the storm through our area quite quickly, putting an upper limit on the rainfall totals. We’ll still get more than enough for some significant flooding, though.
As to my personal preparations - I spent a little time this morning touching up my aging roof. Then I’ll do a quick sweep of my massive 1/8 acre land holdings for things that might get caught in the wind. (Definitely consigning my ancient and thoroughly ripped patio umbrella to the trash. It should have gone years ago.)
I usually do a bit of grocery shopping on Friday afternoons - beat the weekend crowds. So I’ll break with tradition and make sure I’ve got a couple gallons of water (I can’t stand the expense of bottled water, but when you need it, you need it) and check my usual supply of canned goods.
Aside from that, my only other concern is my son at work. He’s scheduled to work the closing shift at the park on Sunday night - just when the rain and winds are expected to arrive in our area. We’ll see if they decide to close the park early or just cancel his shift.
And we’ll have to keep an eye on the expected arrival time and path of the storm.
I hope the winds and rain are not damaging and everyone goes well that was a big nothing. Here in IN we know that thunderstorms can and do spawn tornados. Our most damaging weather event was a severe thunderstorm that dumped so much rain to the north of us it generated 90 mph downdraft winds. Those winds tore through a 15 acre hollow on our property and destroyed over 60 trees and severely damaged 30-40 more. We had to have that area logged to make it safe for us and our dogs to go into. Wind can be incredible destructive. Stay safe.
Where I am in central Mexico the skies are cloudy with the outmost eastern moisture spirals of Hilary. It is lovely, but odd.