Putin could LOSE his Ukraine war: Russian forces are ‘decimated’ says top UK general as invaders resort to shelling evacuating civilians and killing fleeing families
Vladimir Putin 's ‘decimated’ forces could lose the war in Ukraine, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin has said
His comments represent the most optimistic assessment yet of how the current conflict may end
Heavy gunfire and missiles are being shot at Ukrainian civilians in the city of Irpin in northern Ukraine
City came under attack amid catastrophic invasion that has reduced cities across the country to rubble
Comes as ceasefire to allow evacuation of Mariupol is scuppered after just minutes due to shelling
First ceasefire on Saturday lasted just 45 minutes before routes were bombed - leaving refugees stranded
I will only be happy if Putin LOSES his life. HE has already lost any slight moral aura he may have once had (see:Tucker), I hope he has lost the confidence of the Duma, andI can only hope he loses everything he has ever valued, and soon.
Putin sent about 150,000 troops to Ukraine, believing that the country would fall immediately. Russia boasts one of the largest armies on the planet – with its military count prior to invading Ukraine standing at approximately 900,000 active personnel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS) Military Balance 2022 report.
Putin has declared that he plans to take over Ukraine. He will not stop until he succeeds. The only thing that would stop him from throwing more troops into the fight (regardless of casualties, in the traditional Russian way) would be an attack from China…which won’t happen.
Piece I read last night, essentially, said the Ukrainians are already fighting a guerilla war: small units with man-portable weapons ambushing Russian units. The Ukrainians admit that, in open country, they can’t do so well, but in a city, with lots of hiding places, they can chop up the Russians pretty easily. The article about Russia trying to recruit Syrian mercs said that the plan for the Syrians is using them to dig the Ukrainians out of cities, deadly room to room, fighting.
The population of Syria is 17.5M. The number of potential Syrian mercs still does not compare favorably with the number of potential Ukrainian guerillas.
The population of Syria is 17.5M. The number of potential Syrian mercs still does not compare favorably with the number of potential Ukrainian guerillas.
Not to mention, the Ukrainians have the home field advantage. But we need to get them arms. Now!
I’m also starting to question the Russian’s much vaunted military. I imagine that military equipment, not to mention nuclear weapons, take a LOT of ongoing maintenance and repairs. I wonder if Putin and his fellow grifters have siphoned off a bit too much from the military budget.
There’s got to be a bunch of FSB (aka KGB) operatives thinking, “Hey, I can do a better job than this.”
No wonder Bad Vlad sits 60 feet away from everyone else.
Putin sent about 150,000 troops to Ukraine, believing that the country would fall immediately. Russia boasts one of the largest armies on the planet – with its military count prior to invading Ukraine standing at approximately 900,000 active personnel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS) Military Balance 2022 report.
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Numbers do not speak to quality, training, and spirit of the troops or the quality and maintenance of their weapons. Russia sent its best troops and weapons to Ukraine and have shown to be dismal except for shelling and bombing civilians.
I think for years the Russian generals, FSB, oligarchs and other elites have been pocketing large portions of the Russian defense budget and giving Putin his share. russians are inflating the numbers of high quality personnel and weapons.
I’m also starting to question the Russian’s much vaunted military. I imagine that military equipment, not to mention nuclear weapons, take a LOT of ongoing maintenance and repairs. I wonder if Putin and his fellow grifters have siphoned off a bit too much from the military budget.
According this surprisingly detailed blog post from 2016, the author points out Russians don’t have even remotely enough trucks to supply a prolonged offensive.
What appears may have happened is the Russians tried to seize Kyiv and other major cities quickly without the need for re-supply. That didn’t happen, and the offensive is pretty much stalled because they simply can’t adequately supply their army.
How do you expect to equip a superpower military with an Italian sized GDP? Most governments have to get into debt to get into wars. Freedom bonds? If Putin thought he was in for a stroll in the park he got a surprise.
How do you say in Russian, “When in a hole, stop digging?”
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According this surprisingly detailed blog post from 2016, the author points out Russians don’t have even remotely enough trucks to supply a prolonged offensive.
Russia boasts one of the largest armies on the planet – with its military count prior to invading Ukraine standing at approximately 900,000 active personnel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS) Military Balance 2022 report.
It can’t even properly supply the ones that are currently in country. I’m not sure how many of that headcount are productively deployable in Ukraine. 150k of these 900k are navy, for example. And many remaining “active personnel” are unwilling conscripts.
Ukraine, on the other hand, will mobilize its reserves and then some. I expect that by the end of the month, assuming that the West provides sufficient materiel, the number of Ukrainian soldiers under arms will outnumber the Russian forces in country by multiples. And conscripts are MUCH more useful in defense than in offense.
The cadre-and-reserve units of the Russian Armed Forces are maintained at a low readiness with a limited number of professional staff and conscripts, with the expectation that they would be staffed with reservists in the event of mobilization.[2] The Russians have already used many cadre-and-reserve units in Ukraine, and they have not performed well against the Ukrainians, with some units suffering heavy losses. Russia does not likely have a large reserve of highly skilled contract units remaining, although there are probably some uncommitted forces.
What you’re seeing right now in the Ukraine is the bulk of Russian quality combat power. Substantially increasing their numbers will give rapidly diminishing returns and comes with enormous political costs and risks. I don’t think Putin can afford to go to a “total war” footing over this.
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…The Russians have already used many cadre-and-reserve units in Ukraine, and they have not performed well against the Ukrainians, with some units suffering heavy losses. Russia does not likely have a large reserve of highly skilled contract units remaining, although there are probably some uncommitted forces.
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What you’re seeing right now in the Ukraine is the bulk of Russian quality combat power. Substantially increasing their numbers will give rapidly diminishing returns and comes with enormous political costs and risks. I don’t think Putin can afford to go to a “total war” footing over this.
Couldn’t agree more … but will add that the worst form of warfare even for professional soldiers is attacking dug in enemy troops in an “urban” environment. The defender has major advantages and your tanks and APCs are vulnerable to ambush from all sides and above. Tremendous losses are the expected outcome. Even the sewer systems become involved in “rattenkrieg”.
Rattenkrieg was the term used by German soldiers during the battle for Stalingrad to describe the type of vicious, close quarters battle they experienced there while fighting a determined force of Russian soldiers and partisans street by bloody street.
