OT: Saved, I too need stimulation

The effects of aging to me simply means that there’s more friction in all you do, that’s both physical and mental friction. You do less knowing you need to do something or else you quickly disolve.

So I sold my Lowe’s stock and went all in on an index energy thing, it has worked and probably worked quite well even with the tax outcome. So far that is.

But I saved this post and while I know full well it is inappropriate to disparage others I just could not help but be a tad annoyed at the arroance of the poster. The stocks of this forum rotate dramatically of course (check back to 2014 and follow) but essentially they are “possible profits a long time in the future” and such. Literally hundreds of likes, and portolios down about 60% and in my view still way out there in the future and not at all adjusted for any inflation.

The post: https://discussion.fool.com/my-portfolio-at-the-end-of-oct-2021-…

But it also comes back here to Berkshire. It seems to me that over time Berkshire, the stock, tends to briefly initially ratchet up relative to the market in times of duress but then fall from grace quite dramatically too along with other stuff.

So anyway, my question to the board…because I need something to discuss and think about, and please remember that I do nothing significant with my portfolio so there’s no big bias motivation here:

Capital is likely to panic out of many things including SAAS and even Berk given inflation. If that’s your thinking I ask simply: Where’s it going to go? My guess initially is that homes continue to be the focus in the short run; crypto too. But neither seems sustainable. And will rates rise or will be just deal with ever higher unstoppable inflation? Will we have 15% 30 year treasuries again?

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I have no idea where the market or rates are going of course, but I did look at the current prices of his portfolio and they are all back to his 2021 prices, and many positions have fallen way below that level.

Wonder if he took any money off the table

Capital is likely to panic out of many things including SAAS and even Berk given inflation. If that’s your thinking I ask simply: Where’s it going to go?

My opinion is capital will snap back to innovative, high margin, high growth companies.

The fluff ones who are “swimming naked” will be wiped out but cream will rise. (The Googles will separate from “Yahoos and AOLs”)

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Wonder if he took any money off the table

He churns his portfolio all the time.

I think long term inflation is the highest risk, caused by gradual de-dollarization in the world. When it happens, not only the US can’t export more dollars to the world, existing dollars in the world will flow back to the US, causing value depression and inflation. Look at this chart for historical pound/dollar exchange rate: http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist.htm

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“Wonder if he took any money off the table”

He churns his portfolio all the time.

He also stays fully invested in the market at all times, from what I understand.

I posted this on another board that was discussing how Saul deletes posts that question valuations and that go against his way of seeing things, as if they are silly old-fashioned ideas that no serious investor would consider.

I don’t mean this to be a game of pile-on, but I believe it’s relevant to the point made by Chompin. Perhaps, ‘hypocritical’ is too strong a word, but there’s definitely something not fairly cut-off.

<<I find it hypocritical that Saul deletes “off topic” posts that discuss valuations and performance but allows posts that thank him for helping others understand his way of investing. He talks about caring about the longterm vs. short-term but when he recovers even the slightest percentage he makes sure to post about it, even when it’s two days since his monthly performance report. I’m sure he doesn’t post to let people know when his portfolio loses another 2.3% two days after his monthly report.

For someone so confident in his investing approach, he sure gets defensive in a hurry when people ask legitimate questions about how to know when it’s time to buy or sell if valuations don’t matter. Why does he feel such a need to knock other types of investing strategies? If his way is superior, shouldn’t his numbers be all the confirmation he needs?

Saul is smart enough to do well, but his less-focused followers are in for a world of hurt. Late to the party can be costly.

Everyone looks like a genius when the market is going up, up, up…>>

SD

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Weehaa! Just got home and what a day makes! Best I stop my morning rants!

For someone so confident in his investing approach, he sure gets defensive in a hurry when people ask legitimate questions about how to know when it’s time to buy or sell if valuations don’t matter.

This is because value investors view valuation through the prism of “earnings” and try to lecture them (repeatedly).

Saul and team have much superior long term records and don’t care about this view.

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Hey Smurf,

I’ve had number of posts yanked on the Saul board and I agree that if you’re not singing the same tune as Saul, your posts get yanked. I see the cheerleading going on over there and cannot help but be reminded of 1999, 2000, 2001…

Then you know what happened… whoops.
'38Packard

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Best I stop my morning rants!

Please rant, and I would appreciate if you could do it everyday in the morning. Today is a good day for my portfolio. In fact afterhours is the cherry on top with Amzn moving up $200 and CRWD moving up $22.

On Saul’s board I’ve never seen a post yanked that conformed to the Monday morning rules. If you’ve actually read the rules value investing and market timing are clearly in the "out’ category. As Saul has mentioned, the board isn’t a value board. If you want to value invest go find a value board.

The older I get the more I’m for moderated boards. Unmoderated boards if popular usually become useless sewers.

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Try contradicting “on topic” with what Saul has to say, or point a math error or factual error… Just saying.

Saul and team have much superior long term records and don’t care about this view.

they can claim whatever they want…it’s not like anyone audits their actual results.

p.s. ALL investing is value investing.

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Y’all sound like boys in the playground gossiping about so and so and how he’s gotten too tall for his britches and you going to drag him in the mud with everyone you meet. Geezus, is anyone forcing you to invest that way, much less read it?

I’d much rather gossip about the boys at the playground thinking they are above it all.

This is the BRK board not the guttersnipe board.

Lucky Dog

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ALL investing is value investing.

They know. And lately they focus more on valueing their companies. They just use different definitions and measurements of value. See the current CRWD thread where Crowdstrike is seen as cheap when EV/Sales is below 30 or 25.

Saul and team have much superior long term records and don’t care about this view.

they can claim whatever they want…it’s not like anyone audits their actual results.

I audited about a year of Saul’s returns. I found my estimates of what he was making were within a percent or so of what he was claiming.

R:

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“Wonder if he took any money off the table”

He churns his portfolio all the time.

He also stays fully invested in the market at all times, from what I understand.

Saul lives off his portfolio so in fact he is regularly selling stock and removing the money. However he does not trade in and out of cash as part of his investing behavior, all the money not removed for spending is invested in stock at all times.

As to what he reports, they are “IRR” (Internal Rate of Return) type reports. This essentially tracks the growth in the portfolio as if no money were ever added or removed from the portfolio, it was just constantly reinvested. And in these reports, he never list a column for cash, his IRR like reports are on a fully invested portfolio.

R:

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Controling the narrative seems the NEW NEW THING and Saul zeros in on that trend about as intensely as anyone I’ve followed. Believe! You must! All while stock selections will change violently when results disappoint the self-proclaimed master.

If you follow and believe? Eat your Wheaties because you’ll need to be in ready position for change and lots of it. Mr. Market is like Federer, he serves with lots of various speeds and spins. With Saul you must perform and you must proclaim!

His peak October 2021 was presenting like 300% returns. I too like to proclaim, but it isn’t beat the market or anything of the sort. Live long and hold; you’ll get a few 100 baggers doing that. You are also guaranteed to do well.

But the lottery, at least Saul’s, is for the macho ego crowd. You must believe!

Morning rant; next subject.

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One of my concerns when it comes to investing like Saul where you have to be extremely vigilant in monitoring ups and downs of individual stocks is how bad things could go if I was – g*d forbid – knocked out of commission for a significant amount of time?

You need to get in and out of these stocks quickly, otherwise, you could suffer significant losses when they fall out of favor or their numbers turn downward. Whereas with BRK, things roll on…

I’m just not someone who wants to keep THAT close an eye on my holdings. I’m happy letting things ride.

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