My guess is that the small car will be without a steering wheel and FSD fully functional. (my view, not Tesla’s official position). It is several years away but I have high conviction that it will be very successful. Ride sharing will be a big revenue stream. Maybe TSLA should acquire UBER.
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Wow, that’s some guess. If Musk is unwilling to make this projection, and he’s made some doozies, why do you feel confident in yours?
Musk has hinted at this a few times in past several years about his vision including indirectly referencing it in the last conference call.
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Thanks for the links. My guess will put it on the long end of several years. Others may have different, shorter definitions of “several.”
FSD is very good now but not perfect. I use it daily.
Having said that, FSD data and training infrastructure and data is growing exponentially every month.This means the rate of improvement is fast and getting faster. This is a under appreciated by the market.
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There’s not even a small chance that a car being introduced next year or the year after (2024 or 2025) will not have a steering wheel. Not even an infinitesimal chance.
(I drive with the latest beta version of FSD everyday.)
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There is no official word from Tesla on the date for the product launch. Not sure where you got your dates from.
This seems vastly unlikely to me. There are times, few perhaps but still times, when FSD or any variant simply isn’t going to cut it.
I have parked on lawns at the County Fairgrounds, and unmarked, sometimes unpaved parking lots at theme parks. Driven off the end of my driveway and into my back yard to load an old water heater and drive it away. How does “FSD” do any of that? How do I launch my boat, when the launch ramp is at the edge of a field of sand and there are no markings of any kind to lead me there?
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Waymo and Cruise are already operating driverless cars in Phoenix and SF areas. Tesla’s AI is much better (arguably) and improving rapidly and has a lot lot more data and backend infra (dojo) to process it to train the neural nets. The scenarios you mention is just more data to the computer.
Cars without steering / driverless are going to be a slow progression from regulators approval. A combination of limited speeds, sparsely populated areas, off peak hours, well marked roads. They are coming.
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No, the scenarios I mention will not be “more data to the computer.” Nobody drives to my back yard except me. I need a steering wheel. If a car is offered without a steering wheel, I expect wholesale public rejection.
That’s not to belittle FSD, it will be a wonderful thing, but there are a few times when it won’t be anything.
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Let’s do the easy one first.
For the water heater, my Optimus will have already disconnected the old water heater and set it out so that when the drone drops off the new water heater, it’ll just pick up the old water heater and haul it off. Optimus will then connect the new water heater.
For the grassy unmarked parking areas, boat ramps and such, when I drive up, if Black sky, or Planet Labs have not yet e-mapped the area, then my drone will disengage, fly and photograph the area. My Matterport app will produce a 3D e-map of the area, which will download to my Tesla, which will then guide any parking, boat launch and other associated efforts. If I’m in my Cybertruck, I’ll skip any boat ramps, and just drive into or out of the water.
The e-map produced with my resources, will be uploaded, and I’ll get royalties for its use.
For other areas, the Tesla parking bots will guide my Tesla to the appropriate spot.
Does that help?
ralph
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Now that’s a future I could get behind.
Step changes are rare, but they do happen. AI is a step change and Tesla is leader.
I have no idea when the next product launch is. But I do know, with 99.9999% certainty, that if it is introduced in 2024 or 2025 (or 2026) that it WILL HAVE a steering wheel.
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Cybertruck was introduced in 2019. Production starts in 2023 end.
The new model is not yet introduced. Your timeline is unrealistic.
Lord almighty. The next vehicle introduced by Tesla will have a steering wheel. No matter what year it is introduced. This I believe to be true with 99.9999% certainty.
I’m talking about steering wheels, not schedules.
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Both, your statements above.
In my opinion, FSD is a pivotal to the small / cheap car.
Here is Model 3 cost today (in MA)
Why is that?
The manual controls (steering wheel, pedals) cost very little.
The hardware and software capable of full self driving will cost a lot.
Remember when Apple decided to get rid of the button ?
All Tesla cars today already come with the hardware and software for FSD. Margins are very high for FSD and ride sharing will be a revenue stream as well.
I don’t think this is correct. We already know that HW2 can’t do it, Tesla told us so and, if possible, will upgrade you to HW3 if you are willing to pay for it. I drive with HW3 on a regular basis, and it appears to me that it isn’t powerful enough for true self driving (“no steering wheel”). And HW4 was just released a few weeks ago, we shall see if it can handle true self driving someday, but I still have strong doubts.
Don’t get me wrong. What Tesla has done with their self-driving software in the most recent version is nothing short of incredible. It amazes me every time I use it. But, nevertheless, it cannot handle all scenarios, and until it can, the steering wheel, and the driver will remain in place.
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