With the cost of sending satellites into space declining, an ever-increasing amount of space debris is floating up there in orbit. I don’t know if it is confirmed that this is the cause of the problem described below, but the subject is something that will need to be addressed at some point.
“Three Chinese astronauts are temporarily stranded in space after their return capsule was struck by suspected orbital debris, China’s human spaceflight agency said on Wednesday.”
And:
“The Shenzhou-20 crewed spacecraft is suspected to have been struck by a small piece of orbital debris, and assessment of the impact and associated risks is currently under way.
“To ensure the safety and health of the astronauts and the success of the mission, it has been decided that the Shenzhou-20 return mission, originally scheduled for 5 November, will be postponed,” the space agency announced.
It would be ironic if the capsule was struck by a piece from that anti-satellite test. If it was struck by some other of the thousands of pieces of space debris up there, then that is just bad luck. The wiki article says the anti-satellite test was at 865 km altitude. China’s Tiangong space station orbits somewhat below that, at around 390 km. That doesn’t mean the space capsule was not struck by a piece from the test, but it seems less likely.
Recent update: The Shenzhou-20 astronauts returned to Earth yesterday, but they had to come back on the Shenzhou-21 spacecraft. This leaves the Shenzhou-21 astronauts in space with no safe way to return.
Evidently, the plan is to send up an unmanned spacecraft, for the Shenzhou-21 crew to return on. No published plan yet on what to do with the Shenzhou-20 spacecraft with the cracked window.
It is a huge problem, and one that I think is going to bite hard in the coming years.
I think the Kessler Syndrome is inevitable unless we change our ways.
The ISS has had to dodge debris on several occasions. If one day they aren’t able to dodge enough, and it is destroyed, that will almost certainly result in sufficient debris to trap us on the ground for decades. Which means we won’t be able to launch new weather or communications satellites, much less spy satellites, or interplanetary probes.
