OT: The US Intelligence Report - 2024 Annual Threat Assessment

A new American intelligence assessment released on Monday raised doubts about whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel could stay in power, as the C.I.A. director said a hostage deal was the most practical way to halt, at least temporarily, the war in Gaza.

The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment expressed concerns about Israel’s vision for the end of the war and said that Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition “may be in jeopardy.”

The report predicted that Israel would struggle to achieve its goal of “destroying Hamas.”

Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength and surprise Israeli forces,” the report said.

Tensions between President Biden and Mr. Netanyahu have flared in recent days over Israel’s planned military operations in Rafah in southern Gaza. But the intelligence report, prepared over months, was written before the most recent tensions.

In the annual report, the intelligence agencies concluded that “Israel will face mounting international pressure because of the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.”

The war in Gaza is “posing a challenge” to America’s Arab partners because of growing public sentiment against both Israel and the United States caused by “the death and destruction in Gaza.” Those nations see the United States as the power broker that can end the conflict before it spreads.

The report says what many U.S. officials have said in recent months: that Iran did not orchestrate or have foreknowledge of the Oct. 7 attacks.

Both Iran and Israel are trying to calibrate their actions against each other and avoid a direct conflict, the report said. But the intelligence agencies say they believe that Iran will continue to arm and aid proxy forces that threaten the United States even after the Gaza war is over.

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Except Saudi Arabia wants Hamas dead more than the Israelis do.

What is said is different than what is wanted.

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According to Wikipedia, Saudi Arabia’s official policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been supportive of the Palestinian Arabs. The Saudis have provided financial support to the Palestinians over the decades.

However, a 2023 poll found that most Saudis do not support Hamas. Only 16% of Saudis say that Hamas should stop calling for the destruction of Israel and accept a permanent two-state solution.

In February 2024, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia is pushing other Arab states to take a common position on how to end Israel’s war on Hamas. In October 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted an Arab League-Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit that pushed for a ceasefire, increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, and support for an independent Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia is pushing for key Arab states to take a common position on how to end Israel’s war on Hamas as fears grow over its attacks on the refugee haven of Rafah — while increasing calls for an independent Palestinian state.

A lot of next to nothing.

Hamas can surrender and the war would be over. Yes, a lot of Hamas members would be rounded up. But with genuine actions to work out a second state, they would be released.

Moreover, Netanyahu would face elections sooner and be out.

There is one thing the Muslim Brotherhood is very violent. If that did not end things get tricky. The longer this goes on the less of a threat of future violence including against ordinary Gazans.

I’d be taking a surrender as enough is enough.

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