OT: Breaking news?

The evidence, described by more than a dozen current and former intelligence and security officials from four Western and Middle Eastern countries, reveals an intention by Hamas planners to strike a blow of historic proportions, in the expectation that their actions would compel an overwhelming Israeli response. Several officials who had not previously spoken about the matter said the intelligence about Hamas’s motivations has become stronger in recent days…

Hamas officials have said repeatedly that they did expect — and welcomed — an extensive Israeli retaliation. Spokesman Ali Barakeh, reached by phone in Lebanon as the Israeli ground campaign was beginning, said Hamas had prepared itself for Israeli bombs and believed it could also repel an IDF ground assault from defensive positions linked by a latticework of tunnels…

Since the start of the ground incursion, other Hamas leaders have publicly exulted about what they perceive to be a strategic victory over Israel. Hamad declared in the Lebanese interview that Hamas was prepared to carry out the same kind of attack against Israel “again and again". "There will be a second, a third, a fourth” attack, Hamad said…



So far everything has happened as anticipated by the Hamas plan.

Iran might be in this mostly to harass Israel and make life difficult for them.

For Hamas what is the end game? They probably hope to stoke public opinion. And maybe induce other Arab nations to join in the attack on Israel. Otherwise its news headlines and harassment of Israel. Attracts world attention. Does it result in new concessions? Or improved peace terms?

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Looks like Hamas played Israel like a fiddle.

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Only if they’re able to survive the current reprisals.

If Israel is able to substantially eliminate their ability to function as an effective organization, the end result may be to have set back Hamas’ main goal (the destruction of Israel). If Israel is able to show that this kind of attack results in essentially the destruction of the perpetrator, then it is less likely that whatever group takes up Hamas’ mantle be able to repeat a 10/7 event.

If Israel is pushed back by international opinion, then Hamas will indeed have won.
They will have demonstrated that one can launch an attack that kills any number of Israelis, and that Israel will never be able to successfully counterattack. That violence works. That human shields work. It’s hard to overstate how valuable that would be to Hamas as both a recruiting tool and as a pitch to outside sponsors (like Iran) that providing them resources is a good “investment” in their regional interests.


I think Hamas made three miscalculations.
~ They underestimated the intensity of Israeli reaction
~ They thought they could win on the ground (“believed it could also repel an IDF ground assault from defensive positions linked by a latticework of tunnels…”)
~ There was no follow-up/support attack in the north from Hezbollah with their 100K rockets



I’m certain Hamas made more than three. However, they got their main prize: A big reaction from Israel. Now the Palestinian cause is back in everyone’s attention. It will be harder to Israel to continue to normal relations with its Arab neighbors. China seems to be using this as an opportunity to sniff around the neighborhood which is bad for the US. This good news for Hamas’ backer and regional trouble maker, Iran. There seems to be some, albeit pretty limited pushback, from the US citizenry.

To be clear, I don’t think any of this will ultimately help the Palestinians.


Or. maybe Iran’s big weapons customer, Russia. Want to cut off the flow of western weapons to Ukraine? Give the western media something else to natter about, and USain pols, something else to support. Putin has already seen some US support for Ukraine peeled off by the “America first” crowd. Now, peel off another slice of Ukraine support, by giving another faction a higher priority war to support.



Interesting. Over the weekend, there was an emergency meeting of the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation held in Riyadh. The Saudi ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, joined with the Abraham Accord states to defeat all five anti-Israel propositions put forth. Anti-Iran sentiments still run deep.



Good find. The article mentions my point:

The war has apparently slowed, but not derailed, efforts to normalize relations between Jerusalem and Riyadh.’

Hamas wants to make that process harder and they are succeeding according to the article.

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That was my first thought, Putin encouraged Iran to kick the Middle East hornet’s nest so the US would pull back from Ukraine.


I find this hard to believe.

Hamas knew full well that if they killed thousands of Israelis, Israel would react.

They also knew they were vastly outnumbered by Isreal. If all the military age Gaznians are in Hamas, they are out numbered three to one. And if as some say only 10% of Gaznians participate that ratio rises to thirty to one.

Plus they are clearly outgunned by the Israelis. Isreal is fully armed–probably with nuclear weapons. Hamas has mostly small arms easily smuggled. Their rockets are the top of the line.

We fully expected mines, booby traps and powerful IEDs (a la Afghanistan). So far no indication of any of those.

Hamas was clearly playing for news headlines and praying for support from other Arab nations.

They are sacrificing their soldiers for headlines.


More to the point, Hamas is sacrificing ordinary citizens, knowing that Israel will be somewhat indiscriminate in their retaliation. That makes the surviving citizens more likely to buy into the elimination of Israel, which is the stated goal of Hamas.

If the leadership of Israel could get away from their “eye for an eye” mindset - as advocated by one well known Israelite a couple thousand years ago - there might be a chance for much less fighting in the region.

Until then, it’s going to be one war after another.



Israel has long needed an excuse to react.

I am not saying this was purposely ignored until it went off. I am saying Israel knows what to do with this.

Israel won’t listen to outside pressure. Netanyahu gave fuel to the hospital yesterday yet the world was reporting no fuel as if Jews were horrible people. Hamas refused the fuel. Then the lights at the hospital went on and yet CNN still reported the fuel had run out with video of the hospital all light up with light bulbs in side the building.

Jews were said of 130 years ago by the pope to drink the blood of young boys. Why have faith that the world knows best? Most of the world is mess-ups blaming the next guy or their mothers.

The problem on the dictators’ side was Iran. Iran does not have the forward military capacity to make anything happen. Iran fudged its way into talks with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Hoothies, and even our allies who are sworn enemies of Iran. Then nada.

The wild card we do not know as non-intelligence folks is where Iran is in making nuclear weapons. Do they have one or not?

Maybe not. It’s said that when two Jews meet they have three opinions. The Hamas massacre has united Israelis at a time when it was close to civil war.

United we stand, divided we fall. --Aesop

A house divided against itself cannot stand. --Abraham Lincoln

The Captain


And their civilians…


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I mean…not necessarily.

One very likely scenario is that they never thought they would be able to kill so many people and take so many hostages. That they suffered a “catastrophic success.” They might have planned to be pushed back by Israeli forces much more quickly than actually happened.

But even so, Hamas’ tactical goal has never been to defeat the IDF (as currently constituted) in a conventional battle. It’s to make Israelis feel unsafe. It’s not complicated - they are literally stereotypical “terrorists,” in that their method of achieving their end goal is to instill enough terror in Israeli citizens that enough of them give up the Israeli project so that the state might be toppled.

That means making them afraid of being killed or kidnapped. It means making sure that Arab nations remain hostile to Israel - or at least don’t normalize relationships. And it means making sure that there is never peace between the Palestinians and Israelis - because peace is the end of their project.

The headlines are a bonus - that’s what might end up keeping Israel from destroying most of their resources. But the attacks themselves were a benefit in and of themselves. Because terror.


Religious wackoism, from Moloch cults down through some supposed Xtians cheerleading the suicides of bullied maybe-gay children, (almost)*** always involves “leaders” inciting/ordering brutal idolatrous sacrifices on their altars of self-glorifying self-righteous madness.

Hamas is an epitome. And of course that sort of insanity is contagious and, for instance, we see murderous echoes in some of the so-called “settlers’” murderous land covetous attacks on the West Bank.

Hamas’ leadership welcomes all the slaughter, including of the instant “martyrs in heaven” within their own ranks, even including themselves; except, there are almost certainly Hamas leaders, who for the good of their cause, are carefully planning on surviving so their mighty cause will live on…

david fb

***For me the crux message of the story of Abraham with Isaac on Horeb is

  1. Rarity within religious history
  1. NOT his willingness to sacrifice his son, but his ability to actually listen to the angel yelling STOP!

If the hatred remains the potential for more attacks–perhaps under some other name–continues.

Peace requires that all parties agree to mutual respect.


Another way to look at it is that wars continue until enough people have died so that one side says no mas. For example, in the Civil War after the summer of 1863 with the fall of Vicksburg and the defeat at Gettysburg it was clear that the Confederacy could not win. However, the fighting went on for almost two more years because not enough southerners had died to convince themselves.



True - but “hatred” can’t commit a specific act of atrocity like 10/7. Only an organization of people - with access to weapons and other resources - can actually commit that type of atrocity. Israel intends to destroy that organization. And since Hamas will never agree to peace (much less mutual respect), peace also requires that the organization be destroyed.