Whee! $480k.
P/B at a hair under 1.52
It has been this high only 5.6% of the time since the start of 2009.
Sure, value has risen since the last quarterly statements were prepared, but that’s always true to some extent over time.
I look at the daily ratio of price to “max to date published book per share”.
I certainly wouldn’t call it overvalued, but let’s say I wouldn’t yell at someone deciding to raise a little cash : )
I am, though mainly because I have some plans for the cash, not because I dislike Berkshire.
I certainly wouldn’t call it overvalued, but let’s say I wouldn’t yell at someone deciding to raise a little cash : ) I am, though mainly because I have some plans for the cash, not because I dislike Berkshire.
Jim, I suspect I speak for many here when I say I look forward to hearing what those plans are.
Wnen times are good I try to “bottle-the-feeling” for future use and then stare at this chart to remind myself that the future will contain some -30% to -50% rapid declines, (Charlie guarantees it!)
If you stand back & squint at the chart , you can see Jim’s ~10% + inflation!
I am not quarreling with anyone who wants to sell some or sell calls against your position. I have a tax lot from 12/31/2012 that is still behind the S&PLTN Total Return index but 1%/year.
If one believes that Berkshire can match or slightly beat the market, as I do, there is still room. May take time, but I’m sticking.
It is encouraging to see the gap between price and IV close every now and again…if it never did I would begin to wonder.
Other than some furious buying and selling in the Spring of 2020 in an effort to harvest some losses, it’s been a long time since we sold any Berkshire. Don’t anticipate needing to sell any until 2026 at the earliest, so we will sit tight and watch the cash machine work.
We were able to fund our Roths quickly enough that we bought $14,000 worth at 300/B. But the funds availability on our HSAs that we just funded is slow as molasses…so I might let the cash sit until a pullback.
I’m always fascinated by the psychology of markets…
I’m finding it interesting to read the boards atm given the price and book value has crept up. Especially the number of posters saying they’re buying and the improved sentiment vs periods of undervaluation when the board was subdued.
How different it is now compared to the “pandemic panic” over a year ago!.
I’m always fascinated by the psychology of markets… …the improved sentiment vs periods of undervaluation when the board was subdued How different it is now compared to the “pandemic panic” over a year ago!.
I am fully with you re psychology is fascinating, only that I am more fascinated by the psychology of groups and individuals than markets, especially by the contrast between subjective biased sight along ones view of the world versus reality as it is.
For example have a look at your own psychology: You say “board was subdued” and “How different…now”.
Facts: Many threads then about options and option strategies, something which was absolutely not the norm for this board before. Many posters here like myself apparently for the first time ever interested in options.
I was the only one openly uttering interest in profiting from a ridiculously overvalued T… (I hope I learned my lesson) but apart from me all others were interested in something else: In profiting from a ridiculously undervalued Berkshire.
Is that “subdued”? Regarding the time, as you say “over a year ago”: I bought my very first Berkshire calls ever in August last year, the next batch in October last year — and that is exactly what according to those option threads many here did.
Subdued? If not only many here then bought Berkshire shares but even quite a number of us often conservative Berkshire cult followers were continuing or even as total newbies starting to “bet” on Berkshire with options to use to the max what they saw as a great opportunity?
An interesting psychological experiment would be whether you will still find your opinion confirmed should you now, with this additional information, look at those busy option threads then, or whether you might become unsure or even change your opinion
I never use options and don’t consider myself a trader.
I was drip feeding buys (brk) in at the 170-190’s at the time, (I’ve held since 2012) I remember it being a very hard time psychologically with discussion about BRK dropping 50% from c220 down to 110. Pretty much all in at that point then it recovered and here we are today.
I’ve begun trimming at 290-310 but still have a large allocation. c50%
Funnily enough history repeats and I’m facing the same with Alibaba (started buying in at c220 and recent purchases at 115-120). My intrinsic value estimate for 2030 is $600+ per share, however.
I see BRK as my money tree and have trimmed off a few branches to plant and grow new trees, those being Alibaba, Tencent & Prosus, Baidu, Meta which I’ll hold for 10 years plus going forward as well as maintaining my BRK position.
I feel much better having diversified away from an overvalued US market and a rarely fairly valued BRK, Although perfectly happy to hold for an estimated 8-10% per annum for BRK from here for the next 10 years.
These new investments are on the back of indepth research into the companies themselves but also listening to Munger, Pabrai and Dalio.
It’ll take a few years to play out. I’m watching the with great interest atm 22/23. Esp US and China.
Me: Partner with (partly very heavy) gardening as hobby. Hedge trimmer, pruning saw with long handles and great gearing for really thick branches were all well received presents (and saved lazy me from having to work in the garden myself instead on my motorbikes).
Hey, what should I do when she always complains about her old saw?
