Btw/
There is a reason for a report like this that produces such world changing results. That reason is that a company like Uber is so far in debt, so far into its investors, that its valuation just to break even these days has to exceed, dang I forget the exact figure, but something like $50 or $70 billion, despite losing $1 billion a year or more.
Uber will continually need to get more and more from its investors, or from public investors if they ever IPO.
The only way they can do this, is to build a future scenario where an Uber like company, with its fleet of autonomous vehicles, can rule the world in an enormous fashion. Because frankly, if Uber goes public at $70 billion and needs to dilute by a $1 billion or more per year, with a decade or more until profitability, the expected returns from this valuation are not so great.
So you create a public perception that Uber (and the industry as a whole, but Uber as the leader in this industry) is the second company from the transition of the horse to the automobile.
Don’t believe me that this sort of study actually happens and is paid for investors and companies themselves? They are all the time.
The key is looking at the report, and then tossing out the hype. I know full well how disruptive the cloud is, autonomous driving is, etc. Autonomous driving may disrupt 25% or more of the jobs in this country, and around the world. How many of our jobs require a driver? A crappola load of them do.
I certainly would (and do use such services). But they do not fill my entire need and never will. As for example, today, I just decided to take my hounds out for a stroll around a randomly picked mall. No big 45 minute walk. Yesterday, however, I took my hounds out for a walk in the deep woods. 4 or 5 hours the car stood parked in a rural lot. And that car had to be there when we got back, with an air conditioner that worked perfectly (as the dogs were steaming), and the car would not be returned in pristine condition. Muddy dogs, drooling dogs as they cooled off, shedding dogs, and I guarantee you I was at least mildly perspiring (as we humans do - wonderful evolutionary advancement that we inherited the dogs cannot keep up with).
That is a car, that will be out all day, will be sweated in, drooled in, shedded in, driven through dirt and mud, and all I need to do is pay a few dollars for it? I rather doubt it.
TaaS is already an enormous business and it will continue to grow. But like laundry as a service it has its place, and its place is not removing laundry machines from our homes (yeah, I dry clean, still have my own machines).
This report is way over the top, and makes every positive connection possible. Sounds like a George Gilder report from the internet bubble.
Battery cars are upon us, and if the incumbents would get out of the way and actually really try to bring them to market, we would have lots of them (not happening, companies like GM are tanking their battery cars even as they portray otherwise, like the VOLT, sold less than 10,000 - they are losing money on battery cars). BMW is doing a little bit better. Ford doesn’t even care. Tesla cannot produce enough to make a material dent.
Conclusion: internal combustion engine will be the dominant automobile technology for far longer than you can imagine, but battery will eventually make some sort of dent. 2020 20 million cars expected to be sold in the U.S., 1% of that is 200,000. By 2020 battery cars may have a 2-3% market penetration, and almost all of that will be Tesla.
Despite this, things like autonomous driving will be upon us! I look forward to it.
Tinker