Pelosi and $CRWD earnings

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
1

$CRWD reports after market close tomorrow. Whisper numbers expect top line revenue to come in at 839.06 (+6.75% qoq and +31.6% yoy) and bottom line at $0.87. I’m expecting $CRWD to have a modest beat, but likely that it will still illustrate yoy growth continues to decline (35.3% yoy last earnings), law of large numbers, something something.

I also expect $CRWD to follow the cybersecurity trend of weak guidance for FY25 we’ve seen this earnings season.

I think $CRWD drops tomorrow 6-10% AH. And that, I believe, sets up an opportunity.

Against the backdrop of Nancy Pelosi purchasing $1M of calls in $PANW on Feb 12th (many think she is essentially front-running the next revision of the National Cyber Incident Response Plan), I think once the dust settles on this round of earnings $CRWD, $ZS, $PANW are set up for a run upward, surely to be juiced if the rate cut cycle begins, and punctuated by FY25 results beating soft guidance.

So go ahead, Mr. Market, drop $CRWD tomorrow despite a good earnings report.

Game On.

3 Likes
2

Win some you lose some. ;). Up 16% AH.

3 Likes
3

Yep. Amazing. I just sold my position AH at $361. Not the tippy top, but man, that sure felt good. I still think there’s something to the NCI response plan that has Pelosi excited, so I’ll look to get back in at a lower price.
Edit: PTSD kicked in, there’s no Wash Sale worries on a gain lol

4

Why is the wash sale rule of concern for stock you sold at a gain?

1 Like
5
You're right Habit of thinking that way with all the losses since Nov '21
6

So let me get this straight.
You post a bold prediction that CRWD is going to go down AH by about 10%, presenting a buying opportunity. Ok I got that.

Then you come on and say you sold your shares around 360ish AH, which means you’re a trader, not an investor. Which if you’re a trader who’s looking for a fall AH, you wouldn’t have held shares into the report.

Se3 how there’s a bit of a disconnect?

4 Likes
7

Wash sale rule doesn’t apply to gains, only losses

8

The only investors that AREN’T traders, are the investors without a risk management plan. That’s why so many on Saul’s etc. got wrecked in the SaaS recession.

It was pretty clear that CRWD had an exaggerated response after hours (whether it was exuberance at Kurtz’ verbiage, a true and proportional response/interpretation to the data, or short sellers purchasing shares to offset their position that they wouldn’t be able to close out of until the morning).

I’m not sure if building a new position around technical price movements (including starting to layer in this morning) makes me a trader or an investor. But labels aside, it’s what I’m doing on this one, YMMV.

2 Likes
9
3 Likes
10

There’s volatility, then there’s the whip saw of post-earnings price movements on S.
It is literally gambling to hold this security through earnings.

3 Likes