Pfizer Shareholders Very Excited

Not this:

Biden Administration Plans for New Booster Campaign Soon After Labor Day
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/23/us/politics/covid-booster…

A top F.D.A. regulator cited compelling data for redesigned coronavirus vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna.

But this:

Americans may soon have to pay for COVID vaccines themselves rather than getting them for free
https://fortune.com/2022/08/19/free-covid-19-vaccines-may-be…

The U.S. government is planning to stop paying for COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, and shift the bill onto the health care industry and eventually the consumer—possibly making it one of the first countries to end the practice of giving out coronavirus vaccines for free.

The Department of Health and Human Services will hold a planning session on Aug. 30, the Wall Street Journal reported, to bring together representatives from the health care industry as well as state health departments, to discuss the commercialization of COVID-19 treatments.

Pfizer executives have been promising shareholders that they’ll be “makin’ it rain” once we return to the normal level of price gouging on drugs.

intercst

6 Likes

I’m excited? Oh, ok.

Steve

1 Like

The government has been paying for vaccines even if they are free to the population. Pfizer wasn’t giving them away for free.

When people have to pay, fewer people will be vaccinated. That’s basic price elasticity. That will reduce Pfizer’s sales, not increase them.

Of course, more people will get sick. It’s penny-wise, dollar-foolish for the government to stop paying for vaccines. The government should pay for vaccines for all contagious diseases since it’s cheaper to vaccinate one than to treat a sick population.

I had two Shingrix vaccines this year. Each shot cost about $200 which was not covered by Medicare (though I think it may be covered by some insurance, including ACA). How many adults will pay out of pocket?

Wendy

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How many adults will pay out of pocket?

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MOST of us who don’t like being ill!

sunray

former in-patient :wink:

1 Like

WendyBG writes,

The government has been paying for vaccines even if they are free to the population. Pfizer wasn’t giving them away for free.

When people have to pay, fewer people will be vaccinated. That’s basic price elasticity. That will reduce Pfizer’s sales, not increase them.

Exactly!

Pfizer was selling the COVID vaccine to the Gov’t at $20/dose in a multi-hundred-million dose bulk discount. It will be $80 to $100/dose, piecemeal to private insurers.

Pfizer also has the larger COVID infection rate built into their revenue stream after the Gov’t stops making COVID treatment free. It will cost you $500 plus for the 3-day course of Paxlovid.

When the next wave of COVID infection blooms, how many people do you think will need to die before the Gov’t starts to make everything free again to quell the epidemic?

The last couple of years has revealed that the American people have a very high tolerance for preventable COVID death. Pfizer is uniquely positioned to profit from the ignorance and innumeracy.

intercst

3 Likes

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Not this:

The U.S. government is planning to stop paying for COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, and shift the bill onto the health care industry and eventually the consumer—possibly making it one of the first countries to end the practice of giving out coronavirus vaccines for free.

Clearly wouldn’t work for us? }};-@

Our Health Care system is still swamped playing catch up for all the non-urgent stuff that didn’t get done when they were swamped by COVID.

I recently did a Pulmonary Function test that was inconclusive as to whether I do or don’t have Asthma. Still waiting to hear from the Cataract doctor. All travel waits while I clean these things up.

Meanwhile we are expecting a booster with an addition Omicron ingredient (12 million doses) in Oct.

Tim

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I suspect what they are looking at is likely the .33% fatality of our population (about 1 million) garnered by COVID and the assumption that 95% of our population has either been “fully” vaccinated or been infected by COVID.

That’s all fine and dandy if the assumption is that the vaccination course is durable and that future variants will be as benign as the current Omicron B4/B5. That’s two long-shop assumptions, both of which have to be true if we are going to avoid national resurgence of the plague. Of course, we may have decided as a society that, say a 1% future fatality rate per annum is acceptable, but I suspect that political spin only goes so far if grandma has to get attached to a ventilator.

On a personal basis, I expect that we will be taking a couple of boosters per year into the future until this disease abates, it’s proved that additional shots don’t provide additional protection or the bug finally catches up and croaks me. All things being equal, once we get our B4/B5 kicker next month, I figure I’ll give it a couple of masked weeks to percolate and then, in the absence of new variant, might drop using the masks except for indoor in crowded places. We’ll see.

Jeff

2 Likes

It’s not just the shareholders that are excited. The employees are also excited.

PSU

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/20/omicron-specific-booster-sho…
a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesperson tells CNBC Make It. It’s unlikely to matter whether you’ve received any other booster doses or not before, the spokesperson says — but if you’re unvaccinated, you won’t be eligible for the updated formula until you complete a primary series with the existing Covid vaccines.

Oh yes, let’s punish any anti-vaxxer that has come around. Make them take an Covid vaccine taken has been proven ineffective against the Omicron variant. Gotta use up that old vaccine.
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2022/06/17/covid-19-…

1 Like

I’m curious to see how the transition to private pay goes for Pfizer, and more so, Moderna, as I’m a shareholder of that one. Moderna is close to a pure play on the ongoing profitability of the advanced MRNA Covid vaccines. As of now consensus estimates are that Moderna’s profitability is going to take a big hit in 2023, falling from a projected $26.4/share in 2022 to only $7.9 in 2023.

I personally think Covid will continue to be a big problem in 2023 and Moderna will make a lot more money than projected that year. Trailing twelve month’s earnings are $32.8 (diluted) for a remarkably low trailing PE of 4.3.

The stock has an interesting combination of value and speculation. Highly volatile, it spiked up to $197 after it blew away earnings estimates on their most recent quarter, but has since fallen back to $142, which seems like a good price to me, not much higher than my average price of purchase.

They do have an interesting pipeline of other vaccines and drugs coming along, so the income stream should diversify at some point, but there’s part of the speculative aspect, along with what course Covid will take in coming years.

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According to CNBC:“Pfizer’s “bivalent” shot, which targets both the original Covid strain and omicron’s BA.5 subvariant, is expected to be authorized first.”

That is likely to change:https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/moderna-sues-pfize…
Moderna is taking Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech to court, claiming the rival drugmakers copied its technology in developing their COVID-19 vaccine.

I think Pfizer will be barred from dispensing its vaccine until the law suit is settle. Or the lawsuit may be tossed out but providing enough time for Moderna to have its vaccine ready to be dispensed.

I think Pfizer will be barred from dispensing its vaccine until the law suit is settle. Or the lawsuit may be tossed out but providing enough time for Moderna to have its vaccine ready to be dispensed.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Pfizer license the vax from BioNTech? If so, worst case scenario would be PFE gives up the profits it made, but the real infringement liability is on BioNTech?

Of course, it could all be about the stock price. Remember how managements of both Moderna and Pfizer were touting their vax and preliminary trial data was “leaked” just in time to benefit insider stock sales?

Moderna executives hiked their stock sales after announcing positive vaccine trial

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel more than tripled the number of his company shares to be sold through an executive stock plan that was changed just days after the biotech in May announced positive early results for its coronavirus vaccine.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moderna-executives-increased-st…

Steve

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Pfizer license the vax from BioNTech?

It seems to be a joint venture between the two:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer–BioNTech_COVID-19_vacci…
The Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (INN: tozinameran), sold under the brand name Comirnaty,[2][23] is an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine developed by the German biotechnology company BioNTech. For its development, BioNTech collaborated with American company Pfizer to carry out clinical trials, logistics, and manufacturing.[34][35]

Of course, it could all be about the stock price.

Ain’t it always? How else to justified CEO pay raises.

I think Pfizer will be barred from dispensing its vaccine until the law suit is settle.

From a NY Times article on the subject: “Moderna said it was not seeking to remove Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccines from the market, and was not asking for an injunction to prevent their future sale, given the need for access to coronavirus vaccines.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/business/moderna-covid-va…

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“Moderna said it was not seeking to remove Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccines from the market, and was not asking for an injunction to prevent their future sale, given the need for access to coronavirus vaccines.”

I’m sure Moderna would be perfectly happy with Billions and Billions of dollars from Pfizer and BioNTech, so that, while the other companies are making and selling the vax, Moderna pockets all the loot.

Steve