“Everybody” here seems to be “bargain hunting” right now, buying GOOG(L), KMX, FB, Dis… I too did this for a while - and sold most again, realizing that I lack conviction that the carnage is over and thinking it could become much worse. So I decided to stay on the sidelines (at least until everything gets MUCH cheaper) and to completely leave that bargain hunting to my money manager: Warren Buffett.
I am curious whether really “everybody” is bargain hunting right now or whether this impression is deceiving, caused by the “hunters” very actively posting about what they see as bargains, with the “non-hunters” naturally being silent.
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It’s done. Bear over. I am going “all in”.
I don’t care about the market. I am going “All in” too, but because of cheap businesses.
I put some cash to work and wait with the rest what happens.
No really screaming buys. If X or Y gets a bit cheaper then …
This might be just the beginning of what is long overdue. So Rule #1 dominates right n
I’ve shuffled some money around fairly recently to add Google and Upstart to my port. I’m pretty much fully invested. I’m not trying to time/value getting in and out of the market this time after a terrible result doing that in 2020, instead, I’ve just tried to buy and hold stocks that I thought were reasonably priced and valued and if they go down with the market, so be it. Losses have been fairly limited so far due to my mostly value oriented portfolio: down about 7% now.
I’ve pushed MRNA repeatedly as a great buy at these levels. Not as great as the low 120s it traded at briefly last week (I was traveling away from easy internet access, so sorry no table pounding then!), but with Covid levels rising fast again, outlook for strong ongoing profits from their Covid vaccine look good. Longer term it’s more uncertain, so I can understand lots of people putting it in the ‘too hard’ pile.
Trailing twelve month PE is 4.9. New Covid variants like BA.2 easily infect those who’ve had prior infections or vaccine shots more than a few months ago, so a booster is highly recommended.
2022 earnings projections so far include $0 from the US. Either the US government will come up with more money for boosters, or Moderna will sell them on the private market like regular drugs, for a much higher price than the government gets (though they’ll probably sell way less that way).
Right now, the only feeling I have is regret, regret for not selling aggressively, talked about it at length, played with buying some puts, etc. What I should have done is outright sell. I have sold some, but apparently not enough, couple of my super heavy positions took a big hit.
Some of the round trips are going to haunt me forever. Doing better than market in a downmarket is not a solace, unless you are a money manager. It freaking hurts.
Right now, the only feeling I have is regret, regret for not selling aggressively, talked about it at length, played with buying some puts, etc. What I should have done is outright sell.
I am in your “regret” camp, King.
I bought BRK/SPY/ARKK/SaaS Puts a few weeks ago, in line with what I expect (worse to come). Then I let all that “Minor Bottom” talk influence me to against my conviction turn around 180 degrees: I sold those Puts with a little profit, and instead bought Calls: PYPL/KMX/FB/GOOGL, the usual suspects.
Luckily a post “I have enough, so I don’t need to now hastily …” made me realize that my actions are contrary to my thinking/feeling of the worst maybe still to come. Luckily I could sell most for ±0.
All that buying and selling made me realize a few things:
The last 2 years I made profit after profit with mostly DLTR/WFC/UNITED/BRK Calls - but in that environment every dart-throwing ape would have done the same.
The last 6 months I made small profits with nearly day trading SaaS stocks, calls as well as puts. But in that nervous environment it was obvious that when MNDY, CRWD or NET did rise one day +10% it would fall back the next day so that money was made by buying a put and selling it tomorrow — and the other way around.
Over the last 1-2 years my portfolio and net worth did rise as steep as never before. But this is exclusively thanks to my extreme Berkshire position - not because of my gambling. And this extremely steep rise causes since quite a while a very biased feeling: It’s great - but too extreme to be sustainable! There must be a counter reaction. “It” (read: Berkshire) MUST go down before it will be again where it is now. Seems to be correct so far.
Realizations: I am a shitty investor, having no idea and no conviction, rather a gambler than an investor. I am ruled by greed and fear. Fear of losing out and even more fear of losing BIG money.
Conclusions: Nothing more important for me than Rule #1! Gambling is highly entertaining but I should never ever dare to let it become larger than my limit of max. 10% (usually 4-5%). If the environment gets worse and I can’t resist to invest most of my cash I should do it in a very simple way: By handing it over to somebody who then feels “like an oversexed man in a harem” again.
P.S.: You may find this post far too long and boring, but I am writing it mostly for myself as writing is my way to process and clarify things.