Poll: sell

If you have a fossil fuel investment(s) do you selling into the chaos?

  • No way
  • Way

0 voters

I sold 99% of my fossil fuel stocks back in 1986 and split the proceeds between drugs and tech. Smooth sailing ever since.

intercst

3 Likes

I sold my XOM last week, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not sure if that was a good idea, but I anticipated volatility due to XOM’s large investment in Russia.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=xom…

Wendy

2 Likes

Prolly not sell today. BUT Russia’s aggression has just pushed the evolution of green conversion forward about a decade. ALL of Europe was already transforming away from fossil fuels. Now they are going to accelerate that changeover because NATIONAL SECURITY.

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Russia’s aggression has just pushed the evolution of green conversion forward about a decade.

Maybe. It’s also likely that more coal will be burned. For example, we read:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Germany-Goes-For-…
In a major change, of course, Germany - which had argued until a few months ago that it is looking at the purely commercial benefits it would gain from Nord Stream 2 - is now not only putting the project on ice, but it is also supporting the construction of two terminals to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) and is not leaving any energy source - not even coal or nuclear - off the table…

Germany will build two LNG import facilities, at Brunsbuettel and Wilhelmshaven, the chancellor said…Apart from two LNG terminals, Germany plans to boost the volumes of its natural gas storage and will purchase more gas on the global market in consultation with the EU…

Extending the operation of the remaining nuclear power plants or phasing out coal later than 2030 are options currently under discussion, the minister said.

DB2

I sold my XOM last week, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not sure if that was a good idea, but I anticipated volatility due to XOM’s large investment in Russia.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=xom……

Wendy

Fossil fuels, world wide, from natgas to oil to coal are not going away for a very, very, very long time.

When one looks at their bang for the buck, or that should be bang for the BTU (BTU = energy, which is what does the work) for the buck, they have no equal.

Hydro, when available, well pays for itself. And is quite “renewable”.

“Free” green wind energy and “free” green solar energy? Bang for the BTU? Not even close. Not even.

(Nuclear competes, but it has its own special considerations.)

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Prolly not sell today. BUT Russia’s aggression has just pushed the evolution of green conversion forward about a decade. ALL of Europe was already transforming away from fossil fuels. Now they are going to accelerate that changeover because NATIONAL SECURITY.

According to this report, the Germans intend to step it up by a decade and a half:

The traffic light coalition is really stepping up the pace when it comes to expanding renewable energies. “With many measures, we will achieve a 100 percent power supply with renewable energies as early as 2035,” wrote Oliver Krischer, Parliamentary State Secretary in the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate on Sunday evening on Twitter. “This not only benefits climate protection, but also makes us independent of Putin’s gas, oil and coal.”

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/oekostrom-regieru…

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Syke,

Nice find

Russia’s aggression has just pushed the evolution of green conversion forward about a decade.

Worrying about the Green revolution at this time is like worrying about your mascara running while the Titanic is sinking.

The Captain

7 Likes

Russia’s aggression has just pushed the evolution of green conversion forward about a decade.

Worrying about the Green revolution at this time is like worrying about your mascara running while the Titanic is sinking.

The Captain

Well Captain you should interperate that as a macro investment statement. Not worry. Check the board title.
Tim

3 Likes

Well Captain you should interperate that as a macro investment statement. Not worry. Check the board title.
Tim

OK. “Macro Economic Trends and Risks” not “Macro Investment Trends and Risks.” Although related they are not the same.

There was an interesting banter about recharging EV tanks. You can bet your bottom dollar that war machines will continue to burn oxidizing fuels for a very long time. On the other hand local solar panels will be harder to disrupt than giant utility plants. Think of it as armies living off the land instead of relying on thousand mile logistic supply lines.

Based on the above, which stocks should we buy?

The last time I invested based on “economics” was during the last rare earth brouhaha. Lost a pretty penny.

The Captain

1 Like

If you have a fossil fuel investment(s) do you selling into the chaos?
No way 92% (23 Votes )

I’m keep’n what I’ve got.

Desert (CVX, XOM, T, BNS, BKH, ED, ATGFF, NI, NWN, TRP, WRE, WGL, WTR, XEL, DUK, SO, KO & O) Dave

1 Like

I was not asking about selling right this moment.

I was more putting the question into this rise.

I was more putting the question into this rise.

Could you explain?

DB2

If you have a fossil fuel investment(s) do you selling into the chaos?

I think most of the people here have learned that trying to guess which sector will rise or fall on world events is a really difficult way to invest. That said…

I don’t have a stake in this particular bet, but I’ve been thinking about it.

There is a conflict between short term geopolitical and economic realities vs. longer term energy and environmental goals.

The short term geopolitical and economic reality is that the USA should produce as much oil & gas as possible–because the more oil we bring to market, the lower the price, and the less money Putin has to fund his war.

Longer term, geopolitics and environmental goals are more aligned. Ultimately, you want to reduce demand for oil & gas. Oil & gas won’t go away, but reducing demand by 20% is better than simply increasing production. As different sectors (transportation, energy production, etc…) become less dependent on oil & gas, that demand destruction should be permanent. For example, EV’s will likely cross the “tipping point” and (over several decades) displace a growing % of the oil currently used in the transportation sector. Once EV’s are the norm, demand in the transport sector is never coming back.

However, the steps to take to make that happen will be measured in decades; whereas, pumping more oil & gas could happen within 6 months.

Where to invest based on this observation? If I knew, I probably wouldn’t be writing opinions on this board for free…

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If you have a fossil fuel investment(s) do you selling into the chaos?

…

For example, EV’s will likely cross the “tipping point” and (over several decades) displace a growing % of the oil currently used in the transportation sector. Once EV’s are the norm, demand in the transport sector is never coming back.

However, the steps to take to make that happen will be measured in decades; whereas, pumping more oil & gas could happen within 6 months.

Deserves a thousand recs, people who think change will be measured in weeks of months rather than decades should put their money in a savings account.

Anymouse <I DON’T KNOW HOW TO ACT MY AGE, I’VE NEVER BEEN THIS OLD BEFORE>

2 Likes

Could you explain?

DB2

Selling high means taking advantage of a premium in the marketplace.

I get many solid investors see the supply/demand equation as longer term. Paying taxes on capital gains as premature.

I would not be so certain that demand will be long term as great for fossil fuels. But I would be certain there is a crazy rising premium right now.

However, the steps to take to make that happen will be measured in decades; whereas, pumping more oil & gas could happen within 6 months.

This is the thing…to separate out from our US political ban on conversation…Germany’s government is changing her spending patterns dramatically. Really the major economies are not far behind.

Supply side agendas were about private investment and barring public investment. That is getting flipped on its head in the US.

You generic any of us, only get so many shots at a premium. Even if Russia’s fossils are turned off for years the premiums we see right now disappear shortly.

Where to invest based on this observation? If I knew, I probably wouldn’t be writing opinions on this board for free…

If you have a solid investment plan there is reason to make major changes. “Blowing in the wind” is not a good investing strategy.

The Captain

3 Likes

I sold my XOM last week, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not sure if that was a good idea, but I anticipated volatility due to XOM’s large investment in Russia.

5-Day Change +3.40(+4.42%) Everything I own is green today (I don’t and won’t own XOM because US dividends are not recognized by the IRS as retirement savings when held in Canadian TFSA accounts).

Tim

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-mobil-begins-r…

March 2, 2022 10:42 AM AST

Exxon to exit Russia, leaving $4 bln in assets

By Sabrina Valle

HOUSTON, March 2 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) on Tuesday said it would exit Russia oil and gas operations that it has valued at more than $4 billion and halt new investment as a result of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The decision will see Exxon pull out of managing large oil and gas production facilities on Sakhalin Island in Russia’s Far East, and puts the fate of a proposed multi-billion dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility there in doubt.

2 Likes