On Friday both NU and PLTR were released from the portfolio. Funds were rolled over into ZS, ELF and AXON.
Updated semi-occasional, Player Over/Under Performance On IBD Stress Test Ratings:
CRWD: Acc from C+ to B
ZS: RSI from 37 to 39;
IOT: Acc from B+ to A-
AXON: RSI from 90 to 87; Acc from D+ to E (E?)
ELF: RSI from 91 to 87; Acc from C+ to C
CELH: RSI from 94 to 96; Acc from B+ to A-
MNDY: RSI from 59 to 87; Acc from D+ to B
SMCI: Acc from C+ to B-
Note: For what its worth, the IBD data should be filed under āGood to Knowā but not necessarily actionable, dependent upon additional research, deeper performance
factors and individual stock Horoscope potentialities.
Now that all that is cleaned up/cleared up let this weeks stock games begin.
All the Best,
BDH Investing
9 Likes
I have a good position in Elf that I have held for awhile. It has always done well at earnings but it is acting like it is all over. This earnings will be interesting, hopefully they hit it out of the park but if they donāt I will probably let it go. You might look at Duol Champ. I think they are getting punished unfairly.
Andy
3 Likes
FWIW Iāve become a fan of Stockcharts.comās SCTR ranking (technical rank), similar to IBDās RS. They apply it to stocks, industries and sectors, as well as having full RSI numbers available in charts (of course).
2 Likes
I can see below oneās currently OUT OF FAVOUR by market without solid reason(had concerns or small earnings isues). may be better entries here for short term 10% upside trade after nvdia results.
SHOP - TODAY UPGRADE
ELF - Today results
ZS
SNOW - Today results
AXON
DDOG
GLBE - YESTERDAY UPGRADE BUT NO LOVE 
AFFRM
SPT - even bad news not pulldown much 30 looks solid support
ENPH - today news expands into europe
3 Likes
Morning Andy:
Confused a bit by your comment: ELF āis acting like it is all overā. Are you drawing that conclusion simply by its recent price movement - or something more revealing? Please elaborate if you care to.
1 Like
Hi FlyingC:
I used to check out Stockcharts before making an purchases but eventually realized that I had no idea how to arrive at their conclusions on my own; so, I just fly by the seat of my pants now. Probably a bad idea.
Well put together VENUMADI. SNOWās valuation remains in nose bleed territory dependent upon if they can reignite the engines. As far as I can tell - ZS is either a diamond in the rough or something similar to fools gold. Seems like something of a slam dunk to me but when I check out some of the price tags lately its seems to me that some companies just got a haircut. reset, or were simply smacked around to get to what investors (The Big Guys) think is fair market value. In that regard the resulting reaction would be small adds to test the stability of a new foundation - or something like that.
3 Likes
Hi Champ, Sorry about that. I am just talking about the technicals. The Financials look great and that is why I am still holding it. Look at this chart of Elf. It is down past the 21 ema, the 50 dma and sitting almost on the 200 dma. It has been living below the 50 dma for awhile now. I am hoping this report shoves it back over the 50 dma but if it breaks the 200 on the down side I am getting out.
Andy
2 Likes
Thanks for the update.
It looks to me like after that last great report - they outran their coverage/blockers and exuberance got a little puffy which means that the plummet they are experiencing is simply restoring a natural habitat of sorts of where the stock ought to be.
Expectations are for around $292M (at the high end) which represents about 57% Y/Y growth or so. Tack on another 30M revenue for their typical Beat and growth is sitting right at 71%.
Here is an Earnings Preview from SA:
The question for me is whether their growth cycle is still robust enough to Beat Revenue by $30M - and even if they do will it be enough to satisfy investors that the game is still on?
For me personally its just like my sense of dread when getting on a plane. I typically think up all sorts of things that can go wrong while sitting on the tarmac. But after take off it always seems too late to worry about anything. While I am pretty sure ELF will Beat expectations to some degree or other - its too late to worry about it and I am just along for the ride. Weāll see.
All the Best,
BDH Investing
5 Likes
Elf Did great on Sales and earnings Champ . I didnāt like their OM margins going down to 5 percent though, they spent a lot on SG&A. They have a lot of inventory on the books now, almost double from last year but everything else looked fine. Who can complain about growth of 71 percent though. But they guided for 22 percent growth next year. Sounds like a complete sand bag. Itās holding the 200 day after coming back in after hours. We will see what tomorrow does. Take it easy.
Andy
2 Likes
The guidance - sandbagged or not - is more of a black diamond run than I would like: definitely on the fence here.
2 Likes
Looks like a bunch of someoneās must have read the Conference call on Elf 
Q4 marked our 21st consecutive quarter of both net sales growth and market share gains, putting e.l.f. Beauty in a rarified group of high-growth companies. We are one of only five public consumer companies out of 274 that has grown for 21 straight quarters and average at least 20% sales growth per quarter.
Andy
2 Likes
Thanks for the update Andy.
Side note: Almost sold today after the pop but decided to wait a day or so.
While a lot of folks are providing opinions that the sandbagged guidance is nothing to worry about - and perhaps it isnāt: Stillā¦Just like there are lies and then there are Hecky Darn lies - there is sandbagging and then there is hyper sandbagging. Personally I am trying to decide if I can get comfortable with the company. Dunno.
2 Likes
I am feeling the same way Champ. They said in the conference call that they guided to 20 percent growth last year and then updated as they went along. They also said next quarter should be as good as this quarter but they donāt guide for quarters so canāt give a number. Itās crazy but everything pointed to a really strong quarter this quarter so I am holding to see how this goes.
Andy
1 Like
Looking back, ELF has trounced its intiial guide 3 years straight:
FY22 10% ā 23%
FY23 12% ā 48%
FY24 24% ā 77% (~67% w/o Naturium)
The problem is the math for that skim becomes tougher and tougher as they pass $1B. Iām also not crazy about having to build in large beats to keep the growth thesis intact. If ELF truly wants to go quarter to quarter like the CFO says, Iād prefer theyād just issue quarterly guides like TTD. That would make more sense.
Regardless, this was a great quarter, and I donāt plan on doing anything with our position until the actual numbers tell us otherwise.
8 Likes
