FoolishJeff Feb2024 Portfolio Update

2024 - 28.3% YTD
2023 - 41%
2022 - (-65%)
2021 – 21%
2020 - 140% (found Saul’s board in the summer of 2020)
2019 - 51%

Portfolio Breakdown

CELH - 16.1% (13.2%)
ELF - 13.9% (12.8%)
NVDA - 13.1% (11.8%)
TMDX - 10.4% (6.5%)
AXON - 10.3% (9.7%)
MNDY - 7.2% (7.6%)
IOT - 6.2% (7.6%)
CRWD - 5.1% (5.6%)
SMCI - 4.8% (12.1%)
ZSCALER - 4.5% (5.0%)
ONON - 3.1% (NEW)
Cash - 5.3%

Watchlist - ASPN, FOUR, UBER, NU

YTD performance:

CELH - 38%
ELF - 49%
NVDA - 64%
TMDX - 6%
AXON - 22%
MNDY - 25%
IOT - 10%
CRWD - 31%
SMCI - 203%
ONON - 31%

Summary: The last few weeks have been kind to my Portfolio. I’m hopeful the Fed will cut rates in June, which could be a nice boost to growth stocks. PCE data didn’t look too bad today. My biggest mistake this year wasn’t buying SMCI earlier. I’m also looking to cut some of my over-valued stocks such as IOT, CRWD, ZS - unless they can show blowout earnings. I feel these stocks have limited upside, ie priced for perfection. Most SaaS or SaaS adjacent stocks don’t look very attractive to me. Once AI hits the software space down the road, I’m hopeful we’ll see some more attractive growth and risk/reward again.

The Portfolio

CELH - 16.1%
As expected, Celsius just murdered it. I haven’t had a chance to dig into the secondary metrics, but it looks like they are firing on all cylinders. Over a dozen US cities with over a 15-market share! Wow does that bode well! I will probably trim a little in the coming weeks, I don’t really like a position over 15%.

ELF - 13.9%
I have been trimming a bit, it has gotten pretty pricey, but I haven’t lost any conviction. Elf is a Monster that just keeps on getting better and better.

NVDA - 13.1%
Someday there will an inventory correction, but I don’t see it anytime soon as they are still supply constrained. I love the fact they are starting to sell more software.

TMDX - 10.4%
Great report. I have added a lot to it the past few days but still pretty new to this company. They have a super wide MOAT and I like the execution and high revenue growth. We could see 60-80% growth this year with a steady diet of beat and raises. Last year they beat their initial guidance by 70%.

AXON - 10.3%
Great Earnings. Love that they keep expanding their TAM. Another wide MOAT here with tons of opportunity to expand margins and international presence. FY guidance was solid and I expect the usual beat and raises throughout.

MNDY - 7.6%
Solid company and i’s happy with a mid-sized position.

IOT - 6.2%
I have done some more trimming recently. I like the business but a Forward PS of 17 and only growing around 40% is high to me. Hopefully they can justify the price next earnings call.

SMCI - 4.8%
I chopped this from 12%ish to 4.8%. I have always felt that this is a risky stock to own. The server space is low-margin, high competition, and close to being a commodity. However, SMCI executes better and faster than the rest and we are talking about a 2 trillion-dollar-ish buildout so I’m holding on hoping they can continue to grab a nice piece of the pie.

CRWD - 5.1% and ZSCALER - 4.5%
They might not make the cut unless they can really crush earnings. So expensive and growth slowing. CRWD has a forward PS of 22. However, I love the FCF margin expansion potential and AI tailwinds.

ONON - 3.1%
I didn’t want to like ON running but over the past few months’ things keep popping up that made me take a second look. I bought my first part recently, the Cloudmonster, and they are the most comfortable shoes I’ve ever worn. I also like the styling, leadership, and margins. Their gross margins are around 60%, which is higher than LULU at 57%, and way higher than Nike or Adidas in the mid 40’s. Also, they do a lot of their business as DTC, which is obviously the best model margin and consumer experience-wise. Roger Federer is also an investor, and they have a Federer line of shoes. I spent a good amount of time researching TikTok comments recently and the majority looked very positive. Also, the winner of the French Open, Boston Marathan, and the American record holder in the men’s mile all are sponsored by On so I like their progress in this area. They are growing triple digits in China but it is only 8% of their revenue so Asia could be a big part of the growth story. My biggest worry is apparel, it’s only 5% of revenue, but there is hope as it accounts for 20% of revenue at some stores already. They only have 26 stores worldwide but plan to open 20-25 a year to help create more brand awareness. In Portland, Oregon, not many people seem to know them yet, but they just opened a 3,500 sq foot store last weekend and their NA HQ is also here because we are a huge hub for footwear and apparel talent.