Post war Russia

What will the Russian economy look like after the war? The Russian economy pre-war was about the size of Italy’s and will be a lot smaller now. An economically weak Russia could be a bigger threat than a prosperous Russia:

Putin is finished. The Ukrainians have him on the ropes with a stunning victory in their sights

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/putin-finished-ukrainians-him-rope…

Might China take advantage of a weak Russia. I’ve spoken to people in China about the territories ‘seized’ by Russia and it still irritates:

From the map above, all of Russia’s Far East Provinces including Sakhalin were formed out of Outer Manchuria, which Russia took in a series of unequal treaties when China was at its weakest. These are the only unequal treaties to have territorial impact to this day, as all other unequal treaties imposed by Western Powers have generally either expired or been revoked by the Communist Government. Though China has officially renounced claims to these lands, in the hearts of the people, government and military, these lands still belong to China. On Chinese maps, place names in the Russia Far East are still referred to their original Chinese names instead of the Russian names. For example, ‘Haishenwei’ is used instead of Vladivostok, and Kuye Dao, instead of Sakhalin Island on Chinese maps.

https://knowledgechina.blogspot.com/2010/03/chinas-territori…

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What will the Russian economy look like after the war?

Even if Russia loses and Putin is removed; I expect US economic warfare to continue. Just as our sanction/tariff warfare continues on China, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Afghanistan, N Korea & other countries that don’t come to mind this instance.
N Korea sanctions begun in 1950.
Iran sanctions begun 1979.
Cuba sanctions begun 1960.
Hm raises the question:Just how effective are sanctions are in modifying change?

An asides to this conversation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/10/world/europe/russia-ukrai…
As Russians Retreat, Putin Is Criticized by Hawks Who Trumpeted His War
Perhaps a Putin replacement will be worse than Putin. There support for the Ukraine War within Russia.
https://time.com/6208238/why-russian-support-for-the-war-in-…
Like China, Iraq, Iran methinks the US doesn’t fully understand the character/behavior/culture of other nations very well.IMO That was a significant factor in the failure of US regime change wars in the Middle East & Afghanistan. We’ll see how this plays out in this conflict.

Might China take advantage of a weak Russia.

The siren song of controlling Eurasia and its resources has played in the heads of China, Russia (and Japan) for centuries.

I don’t see that song dimming anytime soon.

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Hm raises the question:Just how effective are sanctions are in modifying change?

That depends on how widespread the sanctions are.

The primary beneficiary of the US’ anti-Castro sanctions was Fidel Castro. He was handed a ready-made propaganda excuse for the failings of his socialist system, namely the US sanctions, even though those sanctions made no real difference because nobody else participated in them. Cuba traded unimpeded with pretty much the entire rest of the world. Heck, most of the cars in Cuba during his reign were American cars, shipped through other countries (and frequently arriving in Cuba already older than the average car on US roads).

Quite possibly the most destructive sanction by a single nation on the entire planet is the US’s import restrictions on sugar and subsidies for sugar-cane-substitutes - and they damage the US more than the sugar exporters.

On the other hand, the current sanctions on Russia enjoy widespread support. Certain critical ones are supported by almost everyone who could be the origin point of violations. (That still leaves the option of intermediaries allowing sanctioned goods to pass through.) The US on its own could not stop the flow of money into and out of, merely slow it down a bit and increase the cost a bit; the US plus Europe plus Japan plus et cetera can have a much greater impact; most of the nations most capable of bypassing those sanctions are competitors to Russia on major exports (namely oil).

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On the other hand, the current sanctions on Russia enjoy widespread support.

Yes in the Western developed world. China & India & Latin America have not signed onto the sanctions.

Trade relation fluctuates:https://www.ndtv.com/business/indias-trade-with-russia-grew-…
India’s Trade With Russia Grew 45%, Imports By 58% Between 2020-21 And 2021-22
During April-February period of 2021-22, the trade value went up by 45.79 per cent to $11.869 billion.

I expect it is much higher now that India has increased its importation of Russian oil.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/from-…

What will the Russian economy look like after the war?

If they still have one…

The Captain

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