Sanctions on more Russian banks, restrictions on exports to Russia, half of Russian high tech imports blocked.
Russia not cut off from SWIFT. Said there was opposition in Europe to a SWIFT cutoff. Said European payments for Russian gas and oil will not be blocked.
Of course, Fox Noise was howling about the cost to USians of pushing back on Putin.
Steve
Of course, Fox Noise was howling about the cost to USians of pushing back on Putin.
What’s its problem?
Just kiddin’
Pete
Russia not cut off from SWIFT
That really needs to be the next step - and it will certainly hurt - but a hell of a lot less than boots on the ground would.
special forces to infiltrate and take out high-level government official (including Putin if possible).
Are we serious or not?
Certainly not seriously insane enough to attempt murder on their head of state.
This is not a reason to risk nuclear war.
Putin, 69 and living in intensified Covid isolation for over a year, really might be more than just a little crackers
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/putin-russian-…
…surrounded by an ever-shrinking coterie of fearful obedient courtiers. He appears increasingly uncoupled from the contemporary…
Macron said…he was “more rigid, more isolated” and was off on an ‘ideological and security drift.’
Interesting.
david fb
Better to confiscate all Russian assets in our purview, cancel and deny all exports and imports to Russia, special forces to infiltrate and take out high-level government official (including Putin if possible).
Are we serious or not?
There is not one U.S. Government employee that cannot be compromised. (Unless he is on life support or lost in the wilderness.
An espionage attack can be met with an espionage attack. This does not include vulnerabilities in the commercial sector.
If Biden launches an espionage attack, I will hold a lot of physical cash.
Cheers
Qazulight
Russia not cut off from SWIFT
That really needs to be the next step - and it will certainly hurt - but a hell of a lot less than boots on the ground would.
The SWIFT system is a one trick pony. At least Russia and China and I suspect more than one EU state have built mechanisms to by pass SWIFT. If a SWIFT cutoff happens and does not hold, all future unilateral USA sanctions are without any bite.
Worse, a failure of SWIFT sanctions could collapse the entire U. S. Dollar reserve currency banking system.
Cheers
Qazulight
"special forces to infiltrate and take out high-level government official (including Putin if possible).
Are we serious or not?
Certainly not seriously insane enough to attempt murder on their head of state.
This is not a reason to risk nuclear war."
Putin has already announced that he is willing to use nukes first! So I would say nothing should be off the table.
But then, I’m old and lived a good life!
JimA
… special forces to infiltrate and take out high-level government official (including Putin if possible).
Are we serious or not?
Good luck with that one. Unless you can buy one of his security guys who is willing to die for the money. US guys would stand out like sore thumbs. His palace is not exactly a jungle.
… special forces to infiltrate and take out high-level government official (including Putin if possible).
Are we serious or not?
Good luck with that one. Unless you can buy one of his security guys who is willing to die for the money. US guys would stand out like sore thumbs. His palace is not exactly a jungle.
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A Ukrainian, Finn, Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian or Pole would not stand out in Russia. They speak Russian fluently and easily look Russian.
Jaak
Worse, a failure of SWIFT sanctions could collapse the entire U. S. Dollar reserve currency banking system.
Qaz,
How so?
If you are going say China holds are our debt, China’s holdings of US treasuries are a minor small percentage of the total. Even though people go around saying otherwise.
Worse, a failure of SWIFT sanctions could collapse the entire U. S. Dollar reserve currency banking system.
Qaz,
How so?
If you are going say China holds are our debt, China’s holdings of US treasuries are a minor small percentage of the total. Even though people go around saying otherwise.
It has nothing to do with debt. It is all about the clearing house. Think about if you were going to buy a ship full of widgets from Vietnam. This is a considerable amount of money and time. You put the order in, some guy in Vietnam has to start spending money to build the widgets, some guy in Greece has to start spending money to position a ship to load the widgets, a contract in your hometown has to be leased to receive the widgets. All of this has to be based on letters of credit which gets cleared cleared in the SWIFT system.
The U.S. controls who gets to be part if this system. If you are in Vietnam and are excluded from SWIFT you cannot sell Widgets. Now there are now large enough economies that can be part of an alternate SWIFT system that whomever is kicked out of the SWIFT system can make choices about where the best profitability in the future lays.
I don’t know the competitiveness of the alternate SWIFT system, but I will point out that by some measures China’s economy is larger than that of the USA and growing (on average Covid has really messed up the data) faster than the USA, so there is a logical reason to shift from USA dominated banking to Chinese dominated banking.
There is one consideration, the USA still controls the high seas and has demonstrated a complete disregard for international laws, so to by pass SWIFT sanctions could still result in your ship full of Widgets being taken by the USA.
Cheers
Qazulight
Qaz,
The NYT had a pretty good write up on why not to exclude Russia from the SWIFT. First it is only a messaging system. Russian can turn to the older messaging systems. Second if countries move off of the system it does two things, erodes the dollar as the reserve currency and stops the US from monitoring terrorists moving money.
It would not destroy the dollar as the reserve currency. It would give more room to other currencies.
It would not destroy the dollar as the reserve currency. It would give more room to other currencies.
Correct!
but. . .
There is a risk, actually more like an eventually that the dollar will lose reserve currency status and it will probably lose that status from some random trigger.
If you look at the GDP vs PPP of the USA and China, you will see that the only reason that the USA has the highest GDP in the world is the reserve status of the US Dollar. At some point the GDP of China may pass the GDP of the USA. (China is facing a huge demographic headwind long term and short term a leverage driven economic recession or depression, so the inevitability of China largest GDP is in question.) If there is a general perception that the Chinese led trading block is more lucrative than a USA led trading block, then the hegonomy of the USA along with the strength of the dollar will wain. Forcing people into another trading block accelerates this.
Cheers
Qazulight
I agree that the US dollar will be used less as a reserve currency as other options become available. US sanctions (that require the US dollar reserve status) will accelerate this, and sanctions seem to be overused in US foreign policy recently. But stopping the old Soviet mindset in Russia is a generational challenge, and so it might be worth using the reserve currency power while we’ve got it.
A widely-used reserve currency needs to be stable and easily exchanged. The Chinese renmimbi is not freely exchangeable, and investor confidence in Chinese institutions is relatively low. Bitcoin is not stable. Some new digital currency might become a reserve currency, but stability requires some backing. (The US dollar is backed by the US economy, and the Euro by the EU economy.)
— link ----
“the dollar comprised 60 percent of globally disclosed official foreign reserves in 2021. This share has declined from 71 percent of reserves in 2000, but still far surpassed all other currencies including the euro (21 percent), Japanese yen (6 percent), British pound (5 percent), and the Chinese renminbi (2 percent)… There are significant roadblocks to more widespread use of the Chinese renminbi. Importantly, the renminbi is not freely exchangeable, the Chinese capital account is not open, and investor confidence in Chinese institutions, including the rule of law, is relatively low… the rapid growth of digital currencies, both private sector and official, could reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-…