Won’t affect ability of Russia to sell oil
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/politics/biden-ukraine-russia…
Jeff
5 Likes
CNN
Snippet:
Removing Russia from SWIFT would damage Russia but also big economies in Europe and impact energy exports to the continent.
It would make international financial transactions more difficult, delivering a shock to Russian companies and their foreign customers – particularly buyers of oil and gas exports denominated in US dollars.
Jeff that is what the article is saying. Is there a major way around that?SWIFT policy is mostly decided by the Europeans, HQ in Belgium.
SWIFT is really only a message center for transfers of money.
Old fashioned phone, wire etc still exist.
It has become apparent to most of the world that defeating Putin to his death is an absolute. Ukraine is just one war we will see otherwise. Eventually we will have to fight. Putin needs to die at some point. That is his de facto goal.
3 Likes
Won’t affect ability of Russia to sell oil
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Removing Russia from SWIFT would damage Russia but also big economies in Europe and impact energy exports to the continent.
It would make international financial transactions more difficult, delivering a shock to Russian companies and their foreign customers – particularly buyers of oil and gas exports denominated in US dollars.
Jaak
It would make international financial transactions more difficult, delivering a shock to Russian companies and their foreign customers – particularly buyers of oil and gas exports denominated in US dollars.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2022/02/24/russia-is…
Feb 24, 2022,04:44pm EST|36,999 views
Russia Is United States’ Top Source Of Imported Gasoline
Ken Roberts Contributor
Policy
Two decades analyzing U.S. trade data by port, country, export, import
1 Like
It depends how you look at statistics:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/02/23/gas-prices-r…
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of 2020, Russia contributed about 7% of gross petroleum imports to the U.S. Kloza said the U.S. gets about 3% of its oil from Russia.
Prices will rise, but not the show-stopper that it could be in Germany and Italy.
Jeff
1 Like
It depends how you look at statistics:
Absolutely! While western Canada exports huge quantities of oil, Eastern Canada imports oil from whatever tankers happen to show up at the huge refinery farm near Levi Quebec.
Gasoline consumed in Nova Scotia is primarily imported from refineries in the U.S. East Coast and Europe. Mar 17, 2021
Efforts to build a pipeline from Alberta to the East coast are blocked by Quebec politics. Anyone recall this little fubar? https://g.co/kgs/a5nxoT
Tim
2 Likes
Won’t affect ability of Russia to sell oil
But it may hasten the development of an alternative to Swift with or among China, North Korea, Cambodia, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Cuba, Libya, Colombia, Nicaragua, Argentina, South Africa, or any other countries that at one time or another have found themselves in the crosshairs of the US, the EU, Israel, Britain, or other rich countries, their bankers, and/or the IMF.
It also may benefit Bitcoin.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m glad to see Putin being punished. However, I think that US energy independence, a Mediterranean alternative oil pipeline to Europe, and relaxing sanctions against Iran (along with NATO missile placement diplomacy) could be a more durable restraint against Russian aggression. Detente and continual engagement with autocrats can sustain a modicum of peaceful equilibrium without placing the US Dollar’s reserve status (and Swift itself) at risk of replacement or demise.
Or not.
My opinions on such matters can change on a dime. I just want world peace, low prices, and easy living. War, threats, and hasty decisionmaking (rapid retaliation) make me uneasy.
I much prefer well thought out maneuvering, long term planning, and providing multiple alternative options as a means to best maintain a safe, affordable, and relatively comfortable way of life - at my home level and at the national level, too.
Putin’s adventures (and ongoing price inflation) have cost me some real money.
1 Like
The west can afford the higher cost of fossil fuels.
Russia can not afford to give up a chunk of the sales. Politically this sets up oligarchs against Putin. That is a must.
Other suppliers will set up.
Notably on the side Iran and the US may come to a quiet agreement. That could open up NG reserves to the EU. Now is the best time for quiet diplomacy.
2 Likes
Russia Is United States’ Top Source Of Imported Gasoline
==============================================================
Correction:
Russia Was United States’ Top Source Of Imported Gasoline
Jaak
German government has communicated its apprehension over ‚hitting the wrong targets‘ if Russia as a whole were disconnected from SWIFT.
The green foreign minister’s example was the ‚granddaughter who would no longer be able to wire funds to her poor grandmother living in Russia‘. I am not making this up.
The cynic in me suspects that banks orchestrating energy, resources, and other trade might be spared, along with banks channeling interest payments on Russian debt back to their EU creditor banks.
Meanwhile, Putin is getting his nukes ready. Glad we get our priorities right.
2 Likes
SB,
The world changes in 24 hours.
I get the feeling German “apprehensions” are behind her.
There is a massive cost in all of this. We can pay it all now or pay it all many times over while the bill escalates.
There is only one way out of this.
3 Likes
Prices will rise, but not the show-stopper that it could be in Germany and Italy.
In the USA, federal gasoline tax is $0.18-0.24/gal.
In Europe, gasoline tax is $2+/gal.
So the governments of Europe (and the EU, with minimum gas tax of $1.55) can “control” their gasoline prices a lot easier than the USA can.
So the governments of Europe (and the EU, with minimum gas tax of $1.55) can “control” their gasoline prices a lot easier than the USA can.
Mark,
That is what is what I call A to B logic.
Economic logic the Europeans use less gasoline per capita than we do because it costs more at the pump. The Europeans collectively are controlling how much they spend on gasoline better than the US is. Those countries have been doing all along.
If the EU countries take the taxes down the general public will by gas guzzlers. We see that in the US every time the price recedes from a high.
If the EU countries take the taxes down the general public will by gas guzzlers. We see that in the US every time the price recedes from a high.
That wasn’t what I said or implied.
The only point is - if gasoline worldwide suddenly jumps $2/gal, if the USA wants to alleviate consumer plight, they can easily only drop it by $0.18 or so, but if the Europeans want to alleviate their consumer plight, they can easily drop it by $1 or more.
The point is NOT to reduce gasoline taxes long-term to encourage more use of the stuff. In fact, it should be the opposite, gasoline taxes should slowly (like annually) be increased (in all countries) over the next 15-20 years to make it even more expensive compared to using electricity.
That wasn’t what I said or implied.
Mark,
I am pointing out how econ actually works. What you said or implied has nothing to do with the reality of policy. Governments make decisions differently than you imagine.
As far the price of gasoline goes we can afford the hikes in price. None of us need to worry at all about Germany not being able to afford to source energy.
We can not afford Putin getting it in his head that we are pushovers.
Separately but as a point of interest in this discussion the market is down again. This now is related to FED policy. The war in Ukraine is no longer a market shock.