Russia has won

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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We are all subject to the propaganda which is pouring out from various government statements and media hype.

One of the challenges that the US has when goes to war is that it never seems to have a clear objective of what constitutes winning.

I pointed out some time ago, the initial Russian thrust was meant to cause the Ukraine government to bolt and run. Their “sitting duck” column was, in fact, very well defended and accomplished its goal of cutting off Kyev from the south.

Once Russian forces had started consolidation of the east and , with Ukraine’s offensive capability softened up, the blocking column could then be withdrawn and redeployed in the pi east.

LA simple look at the map will lshow that Russia has succeeded in creating a buffer zone in the east as well as protect the Crimea peninsula.

The unfortunate Ukrainians under siege in the steel plant will likely have an Alamo/Masada moment and provide the heroes that governments need.

This phase of the war is over and Russian military objectives have been met with what I would presume is an acceptable level of loss to its leaders.

Jeff

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This phase of the war is over and Russian military objectives have been met with what I would presume is an acceptable level of loss to its leaders.

Jeff,

I think it is more happenstance that Russia is where it is in the Ukraine. I think Russia keeps messing up. I think you are giving them credit for a well thought out intricate plan. I seriously doubt Russia thought that far at all.

Note the number of Russian intelligence officers that have been purged? If everything was going according to plan they’d be heroes. Hasn’t worked out that way.

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This is another one of those I can not stand all the winning situations when it is all a bloody failure.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-purges-150-fsb-agen…

The Times

snippet

A “Stalinist” mass purge of Russian secret intelligence is under way after more than 100 agents were removed from their jobs and the head of the department responsible for Ukraine was sent to prison.

In a sign of President Putin’s fury over the failures of the invasion, about 150 Federal Security Bureau (FSB) officers have been dismissed, including some who have been arrested.

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This phase of the war is over and Russian military objectives have been met with what I would presume is an acceptable level of loss to its leaders.

Jeff

The following article suggests Kyiv was never an objective but an offensive to tie down Ukrainian armed forces so Eastern Ukraine could be consolidated into Russia. Quite a different viewpoint from what we have been hearing from MSM outlets.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/a-recap-of-the-war-in-…
The Russians intend to conquer and permanently annex all the south and east of Ukraine. This is why their strategy on the battlefield has dramatically shifted: Now they are carrying out a slow, methodical grinding down and destruction of the AFU.

And in the end, this will be the map that will remain—a bitter image of Ukraine’s future. Russia will pour billions into their newly acquired territory. It will prosper and flourish. But the rump-state of Ukraine will be left poor, destroyed, forgotten.

A tragedy.
Eastern Ukraine is where the ethnic Russians are concentrated. That might be the key to a Russian “success”.
Of course, we have no knowledge of what the Russian objective of the war was. All theories are based on supposition.

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tj,

“The following article suggests Kyiv was never an objective”

That was not an article. It was a blog called/titled “Moon Of Alabama”. The subtitle is “Where Barflies Get Together”.

C’mon…we have idiots supporting Putin in this country.

I do not think military analysis by a potential clan member counts.

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We are back to the old assumption. It is a major human instinct.

“Man in charge must be brilliant without question”. BS!!!

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This phase of the war is over and Russian military objectives have been met with what I would presume is an acceptable level of loss to its leaders.

There’s lesson of war that everyone seems to forget so we have to keep learning it over and over again.

It’s easy to take land.

Holding on to it, not so much.

AW

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Jeff,

Let me offer a different point of view.

In 2014, the US overthrew the elected gov’t and began training and arming Neo-Nazi militias and abetted their attacks on Eastern Ukraine and the killing of at least 14,000 civilians. Russia protested. But the US, France, UK failed to honor the Minsk agreement. Finally, Putin had had enough and launched the “Special Military Operation”, which is still far from achieving its objectives, mainly, the protection of Russian-favoring citizens, protection of Russia’s access to the Black Sea, and the demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine. I applaud those objectives, and I’m confident they will be achieved. But Putin’s campaign is still far from achieving those objectives, as the US and most of the Euro nations continue to pour weapons into Ukraine.

Meanwhile, however, some larger things are happening. As a countermove to sanctions imposed by the US and some of its allies (only 30 the world’s 195 countries have followed the US’s lead), Russia has linked the ruble to gold and and a commodities basket. China and India are also moving in that direction. That’s the war that Putin is definitely winning, namely, Dedollarization, which will have a huge impact on the US. As the non-aligned countries of the world move away from using the $US dollar in trade, our dear Fed/Treasury cartel won’t be able to print so freely, and we won’t be able to buy imported goods so cheaply. Can’t happen? Won’t happen? Even the US’s staunch, Mideast ally, Israel, is reducing the amount of $US dollars it holds in it currency account and replacing them with rubles and yuan. The most likely effect of global dedollarization is a sustained depression for us. That’s the “economics” of the “macro”. Meanwhile, as the least dirty shirt in the laundry basket of fiat currencies, the $US dollar is rallying, and I’m long. But --long term-- the $US dollar is a short.

When the ruble crashed on Feb 24, I knew the sell-down was overdone and scrambled to find a forex dealer who would sell me rubles. (Not a one. That market had been shut done and still remains closed to investing.) Next, I looked for ways to buy Russian stocks. Only a few trade as ADRs, and I bought some. (Since then, they had been blocked from trading.) Lastly, there were some ETFs whose investing objectives were Russian stocks, and I bought 'em. (They have since been locked from trading.) But there’s a backdoor, the Central and Eastern Europe Fund, CEE, which is still trading and which I got into sub-$8 and is now trading higher.

There’s lots more that could be said. E.g., how the disruptions in Ukraine will affect the price of food and energy and what might be the investing implications. But this post is already long enough.

Arindam

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In 2014, the US overthrew the elected gov’t and began training and arming Neo-Nazi militias and abetted their attacks on Eastern Ukraine and the killing of at least 14,000 civilians.

Arindam,

Please document this. I am very sure you can not do so with a legitimate source.

The “overthrew” never happened. It was an election.

The “training” never happened.

The US “arming Neo Nazi militias” never happened.

The killing of 14,000 civilians may have happened, but attribution to the US and the west is just wrong. If anything Russia stoked the violence in eastern Ukraine non stop and many of those deaths are among ethnic Ukrainians making the statement shameful.

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This phase of the war is over and Russian military objectives have been met with what I would presume is an acceptable level of loss to its leaders.

Jeff

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You are totally out of sync with analysis of military experts around the world. Russia has suffered great loses soldiers and equipment. The mighty Russian army with 120 thousand soldiers could not crack open Ukraine. Their only success has been aerial bombardment of cities. In the process the Russians have 30 thousand casualties, scores of aircraft destroyed, hundreds of tank/trucks destroyed, their flagship in the Black Sea destroyed, and they have become the laughing stock of the world.

So yes Russia has carved out a small portion of the Southern coast and small gains in Donbass. But after 70 days of attacks, the mighty Russia military has been weakened and will suffer more losses.

You are routing for the wrong side.

Jaak

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Airindam writes:

In 2014, the US overthrew the elected gov’t and began training and arming Neo-Nazi militias and abetted their attacks on Eastern Ukraine and the killing of at least 14,000 civilians.

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Airindam falls for the Russian propaganda. He is talking about the Azov Battalion (not militias) which was essentially the only fighting force Ukraine had in 2014 when the Russian were invading Eastern Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Zelensky refutes Russian propaganda claim that Azov Regiment is ‘neo-Nazi’

https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-refutes-russian-propaganda-c…

The Azov Battalion is a small part of the overall Ukrainian military and it has no political power.

Jaak

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I’ve been following the war pretty closely, and I don’t think the Russians are anywhere close to winning. As our own DesertDave is fond of pointing out, war isn’t over until both sides say it is or one side can’t fight anymore. After seeing the horrors of Bucha and elsewhere the Ukrainians aren’t likely to cede anything.

The Russian army got mauled trying to capture Kyiv. In the first day of the war, the vaunted Russian VDV (basically the equivalent of the 101st Airborne) air dropped into Hostomel airport and was able to capture the air field but was never able to fully secure it. In addition, the Russians were never able to link up with ground forces and eventually the Russian units were encircled and nearly destroyed as they tried to retreat.

The UK Ministry of Defense estimates 25% of Russia’s tactical battalion groups have been rendered combat ineffective. You can put your own error bars around that assessment, but clearly the Russia military is hugely degraded. And note this comment:

“Some of Russia’s most elite units, including the VDV Airborne Forces, have suffered the highest levels of attrition. It will probably take years for Russia to reconstitute these forces.”

That can’t be good for Russia.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-ukraine-battle-…

Last month, Russia announced it was concentrating its forces in the east in order to capture the Donbas region. Presumably pushing down from the north and up from the south to encircle Ukrainian defenders. Since then Russia has used its advantage in troops and firepower to make some small advances, using huge amounts of artillery and rocket fire to soften up the defenses. But emphasis on small advances and there have been some successful Ukrainian counter attacks as well. An encirclement no longer seems possible at this rate.

At the same time, huge amounts of artillery is arriving from the West, and just as importantly, counter-battery radar, along with lots of other sophisticated weapons. I don’t think Russia’s artillery advantage will last for too much longer. And as we’ve seen, the Russian troops themselves aren’t very good. There is plenty of potential for this to end badly for Russia.

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This phase of the war is over and Russian military objectives have been met with what I would presume is an acceptable level of loss to its leaders.

At the same time…

US says Russia’s progress in Donbas has been “minimal at best”
www.axios.com/russia-donbas-offensive-ukraine-failures-c244e…
The Pentagon assesses that Russia’s progress in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region has been “minimal at best,” with Russian forces continuing to suffer from “poor” command and control, low morale and recurring logistical problems, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Monday…

The U.S. official described the Russians’ operations in the Donbas as “very cautious, very tepid, very uneven,” attributing some of the failures to “a risk and casualty aversion” that has persisted in both the air and on the ground. “They’ll move in [to an area], declare victory and then withdraw their troops, only to let the Ukrainians take it back,” the official said…

In addition to problems in the Donbas, Russian forces have been pushed 25 miles east of Kharkiv — Ukraine’s second-largest city — over the last 24-48 hours, the official said.

DB2

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X-Post in answer to several METARites in this thread. I am cross-posting since another one of my posts, showing Israeli fighters inside Ukraine, was removed recently, and you know, Israelis might lean to one religion while the Chechens I talk about here in my new answer might lean to another. And of course what Lanrov said last night highly affected Israel’s leaders today.

https://discussion.fool.com/russia-has-not-won-in-donbas-as-meta…

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Syke, you are paying attention and are well-informed. I added a bit more about Day 3 at Hostomel and the infamous Chechen Kadyrov battalion of paratroopers who met the same fate as the VDV paratroopers on Day 1.

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“They’ll move in [to an area], declare victory and then withdraw their troops, only to let the Ukrainians take it back,” the official said…

Sounds like Nam: shoo Charlie off a hill, taking casualties all the way, then head back to base, and Charlie resumes his position on the hill.

Steve

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Finally, Putin had had enough and launched the “Special Military Operation”, which is still far from achieving its objectives … the demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine.

That bit there is a load of baloney. De-Nazification is just Russian propaganda. And why should a country be rendered unable to defend itself? Self-defense is the ultimate reason for any military.

Regarding economic sanctions - it is true that about 30 countries have imposed sanctions. But those countries represent almost 60% of world GDP. (Roughly 50 Trillion USD out of a world total of 85 Trillion USD.) And they completely dwarf Russia’s GDP of less than 2 Trillion USD. That there are many more countries who don’t impose economic sanctions is irrelevant. The function of the sanctions is to impose economic pain on Russia for their invasion. Those sanctions are doing their job.

–Peter

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Things are certainly interesting now. The Ukrainian play book to date has been to let the Russian forces advance, and then destroy the supply line behind them. Now that the Russian forces are operating in Ukrainian territory that is adjacent to Russia, this strategy will require Ukrainian forces to operate on Russian soil. We have already heard about a few big fuel depots inside Russia going up in flames.

The job for the Ukrainians is certainly much more difficult now, and easier for the Russians. The texture of the war is certainly changing, and I don’t think we are anywhere near the end.

It is interesting that some people are buying into the Russian propaganda. Given the Ukrainian president is Jewish, the nazi comments appear quite foolish.
Alan

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It is interesting that some people are buying into the Russian propaganda. Given the Ukrainian president is Jewish, the nazi comments appear quite foolish.

The single best thing the Russian military could do to reduce Nazi-like activity in Ukraine is to pack up and go home.

After all, what the Russian government itself says their military intends to do in Ukraine is kill a bunch of people simply on the basis of the Russians’ assertion that those people hold certain beliefs… kind of like what the Nazis in Germany circa 1940 did to alleged Jews and to alleged supporters of other forms of socialism, among others.

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With no navy, Ukraine just sank two more Russian warships.

The Russians Are Losing The Naval War Off Ukraine—To An Enemy With No Warships

On Monday, a TB-2 armed drone apparently belonging to the Ukrainian sea service struck two Russian patrol boats with laser-guided missiles, heavily damaging if not destroying both boats.

Add the two 55-foot, gun-armed Raptor-class vessels to the growing list of Russian boats and ships the Ukrainians have sunk or so heavily damaged that they’re no longer relevant to the current conflict.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/02/the-russian…

If that’s what winning looks like, I really hate to see defeat!

The Captain

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