July was unpleasant. I made a few small moves, including two new positions, during the month. I’ll outline those below my current portfolio but first wanted to zoom out.
I truly seems like we live in a meme-like market. There are a few potential factors here that I want to be aware of so I don’t over-react or get caught up in it.
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First, I’ve been reading that a lot of the crypto traders have entered the retail trading (definitely not investing, but trading) market, contributing to not only the price action but the noise.
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Speaking of noise, I believe the algorithmic bubbles that most of us live in, are creating panics out of rumors, speculation, or nothing. And for the investing world is it’s usually X, the worst of the worst for fear mongering.
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Third, you have Kospi which is driven by leveraged ETFs so it’s been swinging wildly, and for some reason, the US market is thinking this is indicative of…company fundamentals? But when you’re caught up in your fear bubble, sense goes out the window.
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Fourth, I believe you have powerful entities manipulating the market temporarily and taking advantage
The question is how the Saul method holds up when it seems like the whole world (of finance and generally) has lost complete control of their senses, and actual financial reports, contracts, material news are dismissed vs. the BS. I think it will hold up, but I think it will be more violent in negative and positive directions.
Throughout the terrible month, I was preaching that the bounce would be just as crazy once hyperscalers and our companies give everyone a dose of reality. So far so good.
My year looks like this:
JAN: -7.02%
FEB: -14.81%
MAR: +1.57%
APR: +27.11%
MAY: +54.54%
JUN: +7.81%
JUL: -16.09%
YTD: +33.12%
My portfolio looked like this as of July 31st:
DECISIONS:
TRIMMED:
NVDA:
I felt that the opportunity cost of this investment vs. some of my other companies just continues to be too heavy. Regardless of how great the numbers are, they are simply too big to appreciate in a major way. I already have a 401k. So I trimmed to reallocate. I’ll probably continue trimming.
SOLD:
SIMO & SEI:
Even though I think the AI sell-off in July was completely unfounded, I decided even during the huge few months beforehand that I need to diversify further in terms of the AI industry. So I sold out of my two smallest/lowest confidence positions so I could reinvest.
ADDS:
IREN:
After they raised their ARR guidance, I added a decent amount. It’s been beaten down a lot, like many others.
ASTS:
Has also been beaten down alongside SpaceX, and then got hammered due to a public offering. but they have had a positive developments, including new launches and reports that commercial service will be moving forward in Japan and Canada. It seems like all systems go, so I’m just hoping it shows up in the financials.
NEW:
LQDA:
Liquidia is a biotech company making drugs for rare cardiopulmonary diseases. Since their signature product YUTREVIA launched last year they have been on a tear. Revenue went from $9M → $54M → $92M → $133M. Turned Net Income positive two quarters ago then produced $53M last quarter. Hopefully I didn’t miss the ride completely.
NUVB:
Nuvation Bio is another biotech but for small cell lung cancer. They launched IBTROZI and have been on a similar trajectory as LQDA: Revenue went from $5 → 13 → 42 → 83M. They just had their first profitable quarter, at $5M. Both of these are small positions, but I might increase substantially if their numbers continue to climb.