A shorter review this month since I just did my Feb review a couple weeks ago.
Most of March looked pretty good due to outperformance by two of my bigger positions, NBIS and ETON. But last week’s crazy sell off took my portfolio down about 16% in the span of 4 days. Still, growth bounced back early this week to register my first positive month since September.
My conviction in most of my companies hasn’t wavered, and I didn’t make any moves after my February review. April was the month we bounced after last year’s cocktail of geopolitical chaos and fear wore off. Will it be the same this year?
Selected comments below the table.
My year looks like this:
JAN: -7.02%
FEB: -14.81%
MAR: +1.57%
YTD: -20.95%
My portfolio looks like this:
APP:
APP:
APP has lost all momentum, and a couple positive news stories didn’t move the needle at all. I’m curious if the TTD Audit scandal might send more business their way, and what will come of the Stagwell partnership. Earnings coming up in about a month.
NBIS:
Announced the plans to build a new factory in Finland with 310MW and Europe has no love for American Big Tech.
ETON:
Carried my portfolio this month with a 45% gain, and is now in the upper tier of my portfolio. Their strong pipeline and ambitious approach to taking on new drugs is compelling to me, especially given a news-driven market.
MU:
The memory fear was high this month. Despite this clearly not being a normal memory cycle, the market can be pretty obtuse. Or maybe I’m obtuse? The Google TurboQuant compression is more concerning, and yet Gemini just told me that production-ready integration across infrastructure is likely 12-24 months out. Analysts aren’t flinching. Neither am I.
IREN:
The longer they go with no news, the more concerned I become.
46 Likes
Thanks for your information and nice call on ETON.
I have owned ETON successfully twice in the past, but am out now.
With growth down last quarter, past guidance down for next quarter growth and supporting posture with analysts’ growth projections down for next quarter, what metrics are your basis for holding over the past two months?
Gray
3 Likes
@Graydrake I really only make significant moves during earnings, so that’s a big reason why I held, but I also added to them pre-earnings.
I actually was disappointed in the decline in revenue, but the DESMODA and HEMANGEOL news that came along with earnings makes me think that their projections for 38% FY growth are sandbagged.
But I didn’t add to them after earnings, they’ve just grown to a sizable position. If they show another significant decline in YoY growth in the current quarter, I’ll likely trim them.
But in general, their business model is appealing to me as it introduces the constant possibility of jumps in revenue as they acquire new drugs.
3 Likes
Thank you for your response. I have been only following the Saul Process for about 18 months - up 40.9% -in 25 and down 13.6% in 26 thru March. The first half was more heavily based on company data and when no guidance was reported on conference call optimism. In the second half of this time, I have rarely continued to hold positions when analyst next quarter forecasts are below my minimum quarterly growth of 9%. Statistically, that seems to have reduced my return some in up months, but has reduced drawdown in down markets.
I am heavily reliant on a continually developing Database of 150 hypergrowth tickers updated weekly, that uses personal weighting of multiple ticker metrics whose sum trigger the final investigation before entry. While my process uses most of Saul’s principles for decision making, the database spreadsheet structure has been judged as an unacceptable tool for use here, The Database has delivered entry and exit timing differences from many here, but my holdings are very similar to the composite holdings of those reporting monthly. My end of March Portfolio and return are shown below.
| MAR |
|
|
|
SYM |
WT |
| 1 |
ALAB |
4.2% |
| 2 |
APP |
2.4% |
| 3 |
AVGO |
4.7% |
| 4 |
CDE |
6.2% |
| 5 |
CLS |
6.1% |
| 6 |
CNVS |
2.9% |
| 7 |
CORZ |
5.8% |
| 8 |
CRDO |
2.1% |
| 9 |
CRWV |
7.3% |
| 10 |
DUOT |
4.8% |
| 11 |
ELVA |
4.8% |
| 12 |
EVLV |
3.6% |
| 13 |
FENC |
3.8% |
| 14 |
IREN |
5.2% |
| 15 |
KURA |
4.1% |
| 16 |
LIFE |
1.4% |
| 17 |
MU |
7.6% |
| 18 |
NBIS |
8.1% |
| 19 |
NVDA |
5.8% |
| 20 |
PANW |
5% |
| 21 |
CASH |
4% |
|
|
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ANN |
|
-13.6% |
| M0 |
|
-11.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
26 BEST 1/15 - +9,1% |
Gray
14 Likes
