Putin Bucks West

Feb 21, 4:30pm

Putin recognises Ukraine rebel regions, sends troops on what Moscow calls peacekeeping mission

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/kremlin-says-no-concr…

MOSCOW, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent on Monday and ordered the Russian army to launch what Moscow called a peacekeeping operation in the area, upping the ante in a crisis the West fears could unleash a major war.

Is Putin afraid of US/EU sanctions?

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ralph

Is Putin afraid of US/EU sanctions?

Suspect that Putin did not expect the amount of pushback he received from a united NATO.

Would love to know what Macron said to Putin last week. The line on him has been that he is a tool of the “JCs”. iirc, it was a series of policy changes that Macron announced shortly after taking office that provoked the “yellow vest” demonstrations.

Suspect the negotiations between Putin and Macron were about how much of Ukraine Putin needed to save face, vs how large a slice the west could tolerate, without imposing sanctions, so the rope sellers would not be hurt.

As posted in the other thread, the news is now reporting Russian troops moving into the two provinces, to “protect them from Ukrainian aggression”.

Evening news was in hysterics, proclaiming this the first wave of the invasion. Stock market futures down 1.5-2%.

My expectation is Putin will make declarations that this is the last of his territorial demands, and he will have the army stand down, for three years, in anticipation of a more pliable POTUS that is more willing to sell out the rest of Ukraine.

Steve

4 Likes

Putin is encroaching bit by bit. The west is encroaching bit by bit. I choose the west and hope for a Russia not led by one man ever again.

Putin is testing his luck. That wont change.

North America and Europe are reconfiguring the chess board longer term away from Russia and China. This will bring India, Australia and Japan with us.

Does Putin care? No one can answer that but Putin. He has stated we are a threat to Russia. We are in reality only a threat to Putin.

2 Likes

Is Putin afraid of US/EU sanctions?

Apparently the risk/reward ratio seems favorable to Putin. The largest, most powerful EU country has been neutralized with nat-gas.

The Captain
people don’t seem to understand backyard politics

3 Likes

Is Putin afraid of US/EU sanctions?

Yes, I think so - otherwise why has he not already had a full invasion?

That being said, I don’t think we can expect Putin to respond or act in a rational manner.

That doesn’t mean that we won’t make it exceptionally painful for him. The cancelling of the pipeline by Germany this morning was swift and rather unexpected and might cause him a bit of pause of further escalation. Certainly the financial sanctions we have lined up will be crushing for Russia.

He might have to feel an exponential amount of pain to change course.

The cancelling of the pipeline by Germany this morning was swift and rather unexpected and might cause him a bit of pause of further escalation. Certainly the financial sanctions we have lined up will be crushing for Russia.

Nord Stream 2 is easy to cancel, because Germany is not yet dependent on gas from it. Have they shut off all the other pipelines from Russia? Nope.

Meanwhile, the EU imposed sanctions. As expected, a slap on the wrist.

The European Union Drafts a Set of Sanctions Against Russia

The sanctions, which will target people, government and business entities in the separatist regions and in Russia,

The diplomats said the draft included 27 individuals and entities, including political, military, business and financial entities, as well as “propagandists” linked to the recognition decision.

Some are geographically inside the separatist areas, the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, diplomats said. But the draft also includes the 11 members of Russia’s Parliament who proposed the recognition and 351 members who voted in favor of it, the diplomats said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-european-union-draf…

As long as Putin is satisfied that taking two provinces is enough to burnish his “tough guy” image, this entire episode with quickly be brushed aside by the money interests.

Steve

2 Likes

Not long ago, there was a POTUS who took Putin’s side, and defended him, against the assessments of every US intelligence agency. That is pretty pliable.

And yet the recent episodes of Russian aggression/expansion have been now (2021), Syria (2015) and Crimea (2014). Other POTI were in charge in the US.

DB2

2 Likes

And yet the recent episodes of Russian aggression/expansion have been now (2021), Syria (2015) and Crimea (2014). Other POTI were in charge in the US.

The assessment of every USian intelligence agency is that, between those two overt attacks on Ukraine, Putin had a major covert op underway.

Steve

1 Like

Steve: Nord Stream 2 is easy to cancel, because Germany is not yet dependent on gas from it. Have they shut off all the other pipelines from Russia? Nope.

They are however in the process of shutting down their perfectly good reactors and importing hard coal from US, Russia and Poland? There is no way to hide those Lignite mines and the associated power stations with smoke coming from the chimney.

This is where coalition governments fall apart if the lights go out and the smaller parties run for the exits.

Meanwhile just across the border those very clever Neaderlanden have a different path in mind. Considering how physically close the two countries are … do the Germans think they are really getting rid of nuclear?

Anymouse

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Nuclear-makes-a-…

Nuclear makes a comeback in the Netherlands

Dec 15, 2021 — The Netherlands’ new coalition government has placed nuclear power at the heart of its climate and energy policy.

Not long ago, there was a POTUS who took Putin’s side, and defended him, against the assessments of every US intelligence agency. That is pretty pliable.

I’m not going to respond because it might be considered political.

The Captain

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And yet the recent episodes of Russian aggression/expansion have been now (2021), Syria (2015) and Crimea (2014). Other POTI were in charge in the US.

Georgia 2008? Pot who?

Russia Is Reenacting Its Georgia Playbook in Ukraine
False claims of military withdrawal followed by recognition of breakaway regions is a tried and tested Kremlin strategy.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/22/russia-ukraine-invasion…

The Captain

2 Likes

DB2,

You are dragging some of the craziest politics into this.

I get it is a cult, but please check it at the door.

You are dragging some of the craziest politics into this. I get it is a cult, but please check it at the door.

Just responding to a previous post (which has since been disappeared).

DB2

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-praises-putins-genius-incur…

DB2,

Make of this what you will.

Just responding to a previous post (which has since been disappeared).

Apparently it is no longer kosher to have a good laugh at METaR…

Reader’s Digest Laughter is the Best Medicine

https://www.readersdigest.ca/culture/70-funniest-jokes-reade…

The Captain

2 Likes