Hey Saul and other board members, I’m new to posting here, but I’ve been reading the board for a while now.
Saul, do you have a preferred stock screener to use, particularly one with the PEG ratios in it? I have yet to see one with your 1yPEG, though that certainly would be helpful. I work a bit too much, though it gives me some extra money to play around with. Unfortunately it doesn’t leave me as much time as I’d like for screening stocks, so I could definitely use some help or improved tools in that area. My Roth has been pretty heavily invested in a 4 fund type of portfolio with broad market index funds, though I started another account recently to try my hand on specific stocks.
Mostly I’ve used finviz, Zachs, and a couple other similar ones, but I haven’t found a way to filter all the information I want and sort based on a couple criteria.
Also, what’s your opinion on Piotroski F scores?
Hi Welgard, Welcome to the board.
I don’t have any screen. I never heard of Piotroski scores or finviz. Usually I get stocks from presentations on the board that interest me and from newsletters I like. If the stock seems interesting I evaluate it.
In response to your question I looked at where the stocks that I’m in, or recently was in, came from.
MF recommendations was the most common source, but not the majority, although after I decided on a stock I often found that it had been a MF rec too.
Some stocks I’m in or have recently been in were first presented by people on the board like Neil, Andy, Anirban, F1Fun, PuddinHead and others.
A couple were from Zacks newsletters (which I no longer pay that much attention to from lack of time, and also because they tend to have a short term focus and recommend stocks because analysts have raised estimates, but I often feel they don’t know much about the actual company).
A couple were from Ophir Gottlieb’s newsletter.
A couple were mentioned in Seeking Alpha articles and I looked them up (Tesla, back before it was a MF rec).
Sorry I can’t be more exact.
Saul
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Welgard,
I’ve been a “member” of this board for a bit over a year. I subscribe to some MF services, but to be honest most of my picks come from this board. I don’t mean that I just buy whatever people bring to the board and promote, but I find this board to be a very effective first screen if you are primarily looking for growth companies at a reasonable price.
I will admit (with some shame) that I have bought some stock simply based on what I’ve read on this board without performing my own due diligence, but in my defense, when I do something like that it always a very small position (maybe 1% or even less). Once I own something, I automatically start paying more attention to it, so it serves the purpose of getting it on my radar.
I’ve tried to set up screens based on growth, market cap, etc. I’ve never come across a simple numerical screen that returns a high enough ratio of worthwhile stocks to invest all the research time. I read a lot of SA articles, but it appears that the primary qualification for publication on SA is a pulse and rudimentary English. OK, sometimes the English is sort of optional. Maybe the pulse is too . . .
I’ve looked at Zachs, but their “investment” time frame seems to be about 4 weeks. I don’t have the time or the stomach to get in and out of positions with that frequency.
As for a 1yPEG screen, a follower of this board (I forget who) built the following spreadsheet. Lots of good info including 1yPEG: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H_v6WOjFi81rM3TH9ZHS…
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BTW - Can’t edit a post, so this is an addendum. Kevin built the spreadsheet, and you can link to it from any unthreaded post by poking the button labeled 1YPEG on the upper right side.
I have gone through this process myself, and there are some good nuggets in the knowledge base on this, especially on how to evaluate and present a stock on this board. I have yet to have the time to find/evaluate/present a stock as well as most have on this board, but hope to contribute one day.
My strategy is to use Kevin’s google sheet as a screen, this board, MF, and sometimes Zachs or IBD. Usually it is just a different way to view the same company, get a different perspective. I also use the 1ypeg.com site Kevin (?) built that displays the screen in a different way. I like the historical view of P/E, I would hesitate to buy a stock that is above 50% of its historical PE. Fortunately, most of the stocks found on this board are ‘growth’ and inherently have a low PEG ratio, even historically. It also displays a historical and graphical representation of earning/revenue growth in a chart format that I like.
I, too, have fallen victim to emotionally buy a stock before I do a ton of my own due diligence. But it is to put it on my radar more than a significant long term % of my portfolio. A stock like PN is a good example of this. A stock I am looking at right now is FIT that looks great on paper, although with a little investigation it is an emotional stock (like GPRO), and forward earnings were recently adjusted downward. But that could mean a buying opportunity…
Robert
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competition
trust
would you buy
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FIT&p=D&yr=0&mn…
or
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KORS&p=D&yr=0&m… Kors is coming out with a new watch for about $400.00 that will do the same thing as FIT.
Charts don’t lie, CEO’s, accountants, analystists do. Fudging the books comes to mind.
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Hi Robert,
I also use the 1ypeg.com site Kevin (?) built that displays the screen in a different way.
Just a little correction. That was Neil Rotstan. If you look at the page it has his copy right on it.
Andy
I am surprised people are dismissive of screens. Mine have found all my best investments for me. In fact, when I am not working from them (or doing the full DD which must always follow) I think I am mostly wasting my time.
Why wait for other people to suggest ideas? As a matter of discipline, I much prefer companies to come to me, not I to them. By screening, I can exclude what I don’t want. For example, many of my screens start with some simple basics such as ROIC > x, debt < y, FCF > z. It keeps me safe and stops me wasting time.
You have to pay up for a good screen. I use Valueline Professional which allows you to create your own ratios. Thus another basic might be cash flow/EPS > 1 where the formula must be entered.
(I have no relationship with VL other than subscriber.)
Screening is also rather absorbing. It is immediately interesting when a screen throws out a new company. So is discovering how a screen can be adjusted for better results. You also learn a lot.
I presume TMF uses a screen supplied by Capital IQ, which will be very expensive indeed. However, their screening criteria differ markedly from mine. ‘Pay any price’ seems always to be the order of the day, a maxim I have found absolutely fatal! And never likely to be more so than now.
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Thanks Andy,
I had a feeling I was wrong, hence the (?), but the computer I was on when I posted that has some heavy filters and could’t access the 1ypeg website to confirm.
But I appreciate you help in rectifying my error. Sorry Neil, I do appreciate your work and will do a better job of giving you the credit you are due.
robert
Interesting Quillnpenn
To answer your question, I would buy FIT over KORS right now, both the stock and device.
- FitBit’s ecosystem (hardware/software/app) is the best out there for it’s intended purpose (health/fitness tracking). IMO, Apple, Garmin, KORS, Sony, LG, Swatch, TAG, etc. are a different market than FitBit
- Fit does a good job of incorporating style into their devices compared to their competition (who I view as Microsoft, Nike, Jawbone, etc.) which to me means indiscreet and durable.
- the obligatory SA article on FIT http://seekingalpha.com/article/3959413-fitbit-inc-called-fa…
Disclosure: I own a FitBit Charge HR and have had it for 9 months now. I thought I would get tired of it, and did take it off for a few days at one point, but actually missed it. The app interface and connectivity with the device has improved since I bought it as well. I also do own a very small amount of shares of FIT that I recently bought to keep it on my radar.
I also have followed KORS for a few months, but never pulled the trigger. I just don’t think I could ever wear something that said Micheal Kors on it, watch or jewelry, so I didn’t buy either. And now it could be priced at a reasonable value. If i didn’t want to own it at $38, I don’t want to own it at $59.
I don’t think FIT has the inventory issues GPRO did, if anything it is the opposite. I wouldn’t spend $400 on FitBits new watch either.
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Thanks for all the responses thus far. Neil’s website does look pretty good, as does the spreadsheet.
Between FIT and KORS, FIT’s current stock price seems like a better value to me. One of the issues though is the market niche that FIT occupies. It doesn’t leave a lot of room for significant expansion, although they are working on breaking out into other areas. AAPL and other companies have definitely taken away some business, even if their product isn’t as good.
Piotroski F scores are a way of judging the financial strength of a company with a low price to book ratio. Couple stock screeners that I have used in the past had it as a filter option, decent way of finding some value stocks.