Quill, Rather Than 2.5%, try 8%

[Arindam]

Grabbed a couple of windfall profits:

BDRY, in 2/3 @ 7.14. Out just now (2/8) @ 7.73. Gain, 8.3%.
OPRA, in 2/6 @6.47. Out just now (2/8) @7.00. Gain, 8.2%.

Both trades were done “by guess and by golly”, rather than as part of a disciplined, systematic campaign, which I’m still trying to put together based on smoothed HA bars. I just saw some intraday opportunities and took advantage of them. Now I’m off to help a friend rip planks for the 23’ boat he’s building. But you might want to add another module to your suite of trading modules that has a larger profit target than 2.5% whose basic idea is this: “over-sold might soon become over-bought”.

I have no idea yet how to translate that to screens and charts. It’s more a matter of “feel”. Something catches the eye. You size a position suitable to your account and tolerance for risk and then act on it. But across a basket of such trades, if done in a consistent manner, the net result might be a positive expectancy.

Arindam

[Arindam]

Quill,

Banged out another 8% percenter. In on 2/3 at 9.76. Out just now at 10.63 for a gain of 8.9%. Three such trades means there’s more than just sheer, dumb luck happening, not that that factor can be ruled out.

But what I think is happening is that some ‘over-sold’ situations are just so obvious that they should be acted on. Or as the popular phrase goes, “Buy the dip”. But only the dips where there is good evidence that a rebound is more likely than not, which means that good charting reading and not over-betting one’s hand become hugely important.

I need to do a lot more back-testing before I’d be willing launch a serious campaign, and with the weather warming and becoming more Spring like that might not even happen. Putting in a vegetable garden seems the better use of my time.

Arindam