Quill's 'Simon Says' Trading System

Quill,

If I haven’t gotten the details right, please post the correct version.

Wikipedia says that

‘Simon Says’ is a children’s game for three or more players. One player takes the role of “Simon” and issues instructions to the other players, which should be followed only when prefaced with the phrase “Simon says”. Players are eliminated from the game by either following instructions that are not immediately preceded by the phrase, or by failing to follow an instruction which does include the phrase “Simon says”. It is the ability to distinguish between genuine and fake commands, rather than physical ability, that usually matters in the game.

The object for the player acting as Simon is to get all the other players out as quickly as possible. The winner of the game is usually the last player who has successfully followed all of the given commands. Occasionally, however, two or more of the last players may all be eliminated at the same time, thus resulting in Simon winning the game.

Quill’s ‘Simon Says’ is a mechanical --i.e., non-discretionary-- trading system whose embedded assumption is this. “Follow the rules, and you’ll make money. Don’t follow the follows, and you’ll lose.”

Backtesting can suggest --but never really “prove”-- whether that assumption is correct. But it’s my opinion that his rule set is better than anything a would-be, non-coding investor/trader would ever come up with by him or herself, and his system needs to be considered, especially if one considered oneself an “investor”, for this reason. Everyone and his cousin will tell you What to buy? But not a one of them has a clue as to When to sell? Thus, ‘Simon Says’ is meant to be a no-brainer, long or short, end-of-day, risk-reducing trading system that buys ‘breakouts’ and sells ‘break downs’. In short, you want to buy stocks (or ETFs) that are likely to go up, and you want to sell them when they start to go down (or sideways, which is a post for another time).

There are lots of ways to distinguish ‘trend’ from ‘chop’. But Quill lets the chart decide what’s ‘a trend’ by cuing off the ‘lookback low’ or the ‘lookback high’, which BarChart marks with an arc above the price bar, thusly. https://www.barchart.com/shared-chart/ATIP?chart_url=i_16572…

So, what are Simon’s rules?

When a ‘lookback low’ appears at the hard, right-hand-edge of the chart, the ticker is noted and put on a watchlist. That’s Step One, which triggers the ‘Wait One Rule’, which is this. If the next day’s price action leaves the arc in place, confirming that the trend has reversed, then a ‘Buy’ signal is created. That’s Step Two.

Step Three is to put the trade on, which is where things fall apart and get decidedly unclear. “Do you buy the next day’s open at market?” “Do you buy on a limit order?” “Having bought, what do you do if prices retrace and retest the low?” “How much do you buy?” "If the market confirms your entry was correct, do you average up? (aka, scale in.) Each of those questions needs to be answered, as well as about a dozen more, all of which are Step Four, ‘Trade Management’, which are rules that need to be decided ahead of time, not on the fly during market hours.

Step Five is to exit the trade, which Quill does on a reverse of his entry conditions. I.e., if a new lookback high is marked, the 'Wait One" Rule kicks in. If the next day’s price action confirms the high --by prices closing lower-- then, the trade is exited the following day, as would have been done in that chart of ATIP.

Arindam

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Arindam, would it be possible to demonstrate the concept with a graphic example.

thanks

My Attorney only trades two (2) Copper stocks because copper is used in the EV vehicle’s. FCX and SCCO for several years.

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Customizable interactive chart for Freeport-Mcmoran Inc with latest real-time price quote, charts, latest news, technical analysis and opinions.

https://schrts.co/urFCIEdt

  1. Out of the gate: Place your cursor on 9/28/22 what RULE do we use? 1000 shares and we wait and wait and wait.
  2. Finish line: Place your cursor on 12/14/22 what RULE do we use? we would have made about $14,000.00 profit.
  3. then we buy out of the gate on 12/23/22 1000 shares - what rule do we use
  4. then we sell at the finish line on 1/19/23 for about $7,000.00 profit. Not to shabby.
  5. we don’t care until the next BUY signal.
  6. Stir - rinse - and repeat until the Cows come home.

let’s look at ACP | StockCharts.com

  1. Out of the gate: Place your cursor on 9/27/22 - what RULE do we use? 1000 shares and we wait and wait and wait.
  2. Finish line: Place your cursor on 1/19/23 - what RULE do we use? we would have made about $ 32,000.00 profit.
  3. We wait and wait for the next buy signal.
  4. Stir - rinse - and repeat until the Cows come home.

When you’re ready, the default charts come up with SMA’s and we have to insert the EMA’s or leave it alone as the default. Easy fix.

Same procedures for the Tetter Totters - the recession is coming. Sold SPXL and bought SPXS. Sold QQQ and bought PSQ with a possible head fake.

Have fun in your studies. Stay Healthy, Wealthy and Wise.

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“Arindam, would it be possible to demonstrate the concept with a graphic example.”

Pier2,

Let me get my weekend, back-office work done, and then I’ll find some examples of what you’re hoping to see.

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Thank you.
For context I am not a technical trader and dont know the jargon or the basics. However from reading this board I have understood and because of human sentiment involved in stock investing, the price often overshoots and undershoots the real intrinsic price. And Quill has figured out a reliable way to identify the triggers. I am intrigued and would like to give it a shot. The key is to understand the mechanics in a “…For Dummies” format. ie. Step 1. Wait for the 20 day exponential moving average to do this _____ Step 2: Wait 1 day for confirming signal (which is the price staying at ?? level) Step3: On day 3 buy/sell at open ETC. My main confusion is understanding step 1 … – Regards

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" …because of the human sentiment involved in stock investing, ‘price’ often overshoots and undershoots the ‘intrinsic price’. "

PieR2,

That’s not an exact quote of what you said, but a slight re-phrasing that lets me restate what’s really going on.

Stock over/under pricing happens, as Ben Graham pointed out in his 1934 edition of The Intelligent Investor, just as Munehisa Homa pointed out about the pricing of rice futures nearly 200 years earlier. “If all other people are bullish, be foolish and sell rice.” (from the 1755 edition of San-en Kinsen Horoku. )
Ben Graham’s approach can be summarized, “Buy umbrellas in July; straw hats in December”. Sir John Templeton offered the same advice, albeit a bit more grimly, “Buy when there’s blood in the street”.

Two takeaways. One, doing what others are doing gets you what others get, but no more. Indexers make that their mantra and see in it no downside. Contrarians , OTOH, of which value investing is a sub-branch, want more and with less risk. Hence, their mantra, “Buy low. Sell high.”

So, how to know when prices are low and prices are high? Comparing present financial ratios (PE’s, PBs, PSs, etc.) to historical norms is one way. The other is to compare present prices to past prices and to try to discern from them what the trend might be. Is it ‘up’, ‘down’, or ‘sideways’?

Because market time is fractal, as Mandelbrot has demonstrated and is clearly explained in the book, The (Mis)behavior of Markets, prices can be charted in any time frame. Quill prefers to work off of daily bars. Most would-be investors would be better off using weekly bars, but to the same effect and for the same reasons. "How do I make decisions under conditions of uncertainty, yet keep myself out of troubles that–in retrospect-- were clearly present in the financial statements of a company or in how its stock was being traded? That’s the hard part, to see in the present what should be seen and to discard the rest as noise. However, just as with a card game like Euchre, just because you pay a hand the way it should be played, doesn’t you won’t get set. Nor, the next time, should you play the setup differently. Why? Because this stock investing stuff --this stock trading stuff-- is just a game of probabilities. What Technical Analysis can do is to nudge the odds a bit in your favor.

As for learning how to build charts and to read them, there are dozens of intro books. One of the classics, and still one of the best explanations of charting and stage analysis, is Stan Weinstein’s Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. If you haven’t a clue about ‘moving averages’ and such, get a copy. It won’t be on the shelves of your local library, because almost no investing/trading books are. But used copies can be found at places like Amazon or Thrift Books (whose prices are often better).

Arindam

PS, Yeah, yeah. I still owe you some charts. But it’s not raining, and I want to roll some miles on my recumbent before the afternoon grows too late.

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