Simon Sez III in review

Simon Sez III

Wikipedia says that

"Simon Says "is a children’s game for three or more players. One player takes the role of “Simon” and issues instructions to the other players, which should be followed only when prefaced with the phrase “Simon says”. Players are eliminated from the game by either following instructions that are not immediately preceded by the phrase, or by failing to follow an instruction which does include the phrase “Simon says”. It is the ability to distinguish between genuine and fake commands, rather than physical ability, that usually matters in the game.

Simon Says is a mechanical --i.e., non-discretionary-- trading system whose embedded assumption is this. “Follow the rules, and you’ll make money. Don’t follow the follows, and you’ll lose.”

" The Simple Simon Trading Method per Simon’s Werld® "

Simon III and Co. will make you a wealthy person over time by learning Risk and Money Management skills.

See Simon Sez III below.

re: Swing Trading
re: Stockcharts
re: Barchart
re: Price Label
re: 999 to 1000 percent batting average
re: TinyURL.com - shorten that long URL into a tiny URL 17 changes all day.
re: Out of the Gate
re: Finish Line

So What Is Swing Trading?

Swing trading is the buying and selling of stocks all within the timeframe of a few days or several weeks. It’s a lot like day trading except for the timeframe. After each buy and sell cycle, your slate is clean with no carry-over. It’s the opposite of passive, low-maintenance investing. Swing trading is active short-term investing because the “buy and hold” mantra does not apply.

Simon Sez III. “Wait-one bar” after Price label to Price label rule signal per Simon’s Werld® by Quillnpenn revised 12/1/2020.

Re: New ACP stock charts via Stockcharts.com 9 for subscribers or non-subscribers. To see charts in full detail, you might have to be a subscriber.

Re: COST - ACP | StockCharts.com 26 - - - Cash Cow. One can retire on just this one stock.
Re: HD - ACP | StockCharts.com 7 - - - Cash Cow. One can retire on just this second stock as well.
re: $ETHUSD daily - https://schrts.co/VrxWsRmD- 6 - - Let Simon tell you what to do with Patience and Discipline.
re: $ETHUSD 4 hour - ACP | StockCharts.com 5

When a Price label appears to do the following:

1 ) For the TOP Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the price drops below the high signal to SELL the stock to help protect your ASSets.

2 ) For the BOTTOM Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the Price bar is rising upwards to BUY the stock.

For the very first time when viewing a chart, the default will appear, however, make some minor adjustments for a better view. When the Setup procedure is complete (see way below), the charts will always pop correctly thereafter.

Cheat Sheet:

Class - Simon Sez III - Holy Grail

Holy Grail: “Something that people want very much, but which is very
difficult or impossible to achieve”. Like getting a hole-in-one on a golf course.

Okay now for the Holy Grail part of having fun without really trying.
I believe we can make money with the aid of Simon. If NOT, you get detention for failing to read and review the two (2) simple rules.

The Rules:

Here are the following rules that I found so far broken into two (2)
parts. TOP and BOTTOM.

To SELL @

TOP: When you see the Price label = Wait-one bar rule applies to SELL to help protect your ASSets.

When you see the RED Candle, GREEN Candlestick BELOW the Price label (centered) = SELL immediately when it appears.

To BUY @

BOTTOM: When you see the Price label = Wait-one bar rule applies to BUY.

When you see the GREEN Candle, RED Candlestick ABOVE the Price label (Centered) = BUY immediately when it appears.

I am using the Daily and the 30-minute charts to make money faster. 4-hour chart for the cryptos all day long.

These charts are good for swing trading and for long-term investments such as the XL’s (xle, xlc, xlf, et.,al) to hold and trade forever since 1999. Includes Dividends at the end of each QUARTER eg…3-6-9-12. Stocks must be bought before the ex-dividend date. NOT on, but before the date to get the dividend checks thereafter.

XLK Snapshot - The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK - Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund.

Snapshot - All Sector SPDR ETFs have been swing trading the XLs since January 1999 with a 999 to 1000 percent batting average.

These charts are perfect for Tetter Tottering via the MDP (Million Dollar Portfolio) eg…SPXL / SPXS : QQQ / PSQ.

The Teeter Totter Principle is all about using a “seesaw” to balance your Nest Egg’s cash and investments.

eg. . . . . ACP | StockCharts.com 17
. . . . . . . ACP | StockCharts.com 6
. . . . . . . ACP | StockCharts.com 4

Note with the above as a sample POSITIVE CASH FLOW. We would have sold TBT and bought TLT per Simon Sez rules as noted above.

                                      INVERSE
     DDM - Default Style	DDM / DXD	
DGP - Default Style	DGP / DZZ	
DIA - Default Style	DIA 	
DIG - Default Style	DIG / DUG	
DPK - Default Style	DPK / DZK	
DRN - Default Style	DRN / DRV	
DRV - Default Style	DRV / DRN	
DUG - Default Style	DUG / DIG	
DUST - Default Style	DUST/ NUGT	
DXD - Default Style	DXD / DDM	
DZK - Default Style	DZK / DPK	
DZZ - Default Style	DZZ / DGP	
EDC - Default Style	EDC / EDZ 	
EDZ - Default Style	EDZ / EDC	
ERX - Default Style	ERX / ERY	
ERY - Default Style	ERY / ERX	
FAS - Default Style	FAS / FAZ	
FAZ - Default Style	FAZ / FAS	
FXE - Default Style	FXE / 	
GASL - Default Style	GASL/ GASX	
GASX - Default Style	GASX/ GASL	
GLD - Default Style	GLD / UGL	
GLL - Default Style	GLL / UGL	
IYR - Default Style	IYR / 	
KBE - Default Style	KBE	
MIDU - Default Style	MIDU/ MIDZ	
MIDZ - Default Style	MIDZ/ MIDU	
NUGT - Default Style	NUGT/ DUST	
QID - Default Style	QID / QLD	
QLD - Default Style	QLD / QID	
QQQ - Default Style	QQQ / PSQ	
SDOW - Default StyleSDOW/ UDOW	
SDS - Default Style	SDS / SSO	
SH - Default Style	SH  / SPY / SJB	
SKF - Default Style	SKF / UYG	
SLV - Default Style	SLV / 	
SMH - Default Style	SMH	
SMN - Default Style	SMN / UYM	
SOXL - Default Style	SOXL/ SOXS	
SOXS - Default Style	SOXS/SOXL	
SPXL - Default Style	SPXL/ SPXS	
SPXS - Default Style	SPXS/ SPXL	
SPY - Default Style	SPY / SH / UPRO/ SJB
SQQQ - Default Style	SQQQ/ TQQQ	
SRS - Default Style	SRS / URE	
SSG - Default Style	SSG / USD	
SSO - Default Style	SSO / SDS	
TECL - Default Style	TECL/ TECS	
                        TLT / TBF / TBT
     TECS - Default Style	TECS/ TECL	
TMF - Default Style	TMF / TMV	
TMV - Default Style	TMV / TMF	
TNA - Default Style	TNA / TZA	
TQQQ - Default Style	TQQQ/ SQQQ	
TVIX - VelocitySharesTVIX/ 	
TYD - Default Style	TYD / TYO	
TYO - Default Style	TYO / TVD	
TZA - Default Style	TZA / TNA	
UDN - Default Style	UDN / UUP	
UDOW - Default StyleUDOW/ SDOW	
UGL - Default Style	UGL / GLL	
URE - Default Style	URE / SRS	
USD - Default Style	USD / SSG	
UUP - Default Style	UUP / UDN	
UYG - Default Style	UYG / SKF	
UYM - Default Style	UYM / SMN	
XLB - Default Style	XLB / 	
YANG - Default Style	YANG/ YINN	
YINN - Default Style	YINN/ YANG	
ZIV - Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Medium Term ETN	ZIV	

Quillnpenn -

p.s. One other thought would be the PettyCa$h as a Kamikaze play using Simon’s different rules for Six or fewer days.

4 Likes

Quill,

Thanks so much for providing these detailed instructions in the other thread on how to set up a chart in stockcharts.com for Simon III. I was able to follow them easily! I have been using barchart, but now giving Stockcharts a try. I thought I would paste your instructions here for anyone getting started with Simon III. Thanks again for all your help!

Quill’s chart setup:

  1. on the URL bar type in stockcharts.com then Enter
  2. click on "Charts & Tools.
  3. find StockChartsACP and enter a Symbol. . . Eg. XLE
  4. It will most likely default to a strange looking chart
  5. at the top of the URL bar we are looking for DAILY OHLC BARS (open-high-low-close). Later on you can change to you favourite bells and whistles.
  6. on the left hand edge is 5 icons
  7. click on the second ICON down
  8. high lighted is XLE blah blah blah will appear
  9. for now, scroll down and find “Murphy” and check it off. Way later you can changeto what to what ever you wish
  10. click on the second ICON to close out
  11. click on the first ICON
  12. we will now be adding 2 moving averages
  13. scroll down and find Moving Averages-exponential.
  14. click on it for the first one to be 20 ema.
  15. click on it for the second one to be 200 ema.
  16. this is important, because Stockcharts will always try to default to 20 sma and 200 sma.
  17. you should confirm the ema’s by clicking on the first ICON.
  18. stay on the first ICON and click on the far right of the name XLE to what looks a wheel.
  19. scroll down to “other settings” and check off - extended hours - last price perference line - price labels - y axis labels - if not done already.
  20. next move to “OHLC Bars Settings” -GREEN BOX for up Color - RED BOX for down Color.
  21. continuing on down, and find " Events" - check off Earnings dates, Dividends and Predefined alerts.
  22. moving on down and find Alerts - should be default to a BLACK BOX line color.
  23. click on the Close box at the below.
  24. click on the first ICON at the top to close.
  25. DON’T touch the other ICONs for now until later.
  26. Back to the Chart
  27. Save the chart Layout
  28. click on the Bottom ICON (5th one down).
  29. go to the bottomand click on the GREEN BOX - “Save Layout”
  30. Give it a name/s to be used later.
  31. I chose " simon ", you can chose you favourite name.
  32. the name of the layout should appear to the right of the 4th ICON.
  33. click on the 5th ICON to just show the current chart.
  34. some time the cursor disappears. Click on the ICON to the right of the word " SAVE " to what looks like a cross hair.
  35. when calling up a chart, confirm in the upper left hand corner the ema’s should appear with the ticker symbol.
  36. if the SMA’s appear, click on the 5th ICON, click on layout name ( simon ), then click on the 5th ICON again to close out
  37. the chart now appears ready for review.
  38. Later we will go over some scanning tools to find stocks Out of the Gate.
3 Likes

Hi Lisa,

Did you subscribe to stockcharts.com. If not, were you still able to save those chart settings?

Thanks,
Charlie

1 Like

Charlie,
Unfortunately, I had to start the free 1-month trial to be able to save the chart settings. I don’t think they let you save the charts for free like Barchart. I’m going to take this month to compare it to Barchart and see if it’s worth the subscription.

1 Like

Charlie,

The charts and investing tools one uses are a matter of personal preference. But I’d suggest you forget about trying to use StockCharts (SC) and learn to use what BarChart (BC) offers.

Even with a paid subscription, only one watchlist can be run at SC. But even with a free account at BC, up to five chart templates can be saved, as well as five watchlists. Plus, the ‘flipcharts’ feature is easier to use at BC.

1 Like

Thanks Lisa and Arindam! Definitely makes sense… I need to learn to walk before flying…I don’t think I have explored the BC fully yet, just barely scraped its surface. So, will do that first before trying anything new.

need a Simon III primer for BC !
Guessing the arcs are like the price labels

1 Like

"I don’t think I have explored the BC fully yet, just barely scraped its surface. "

Charlie,

I’ve been using Bar Chart for years, and I still haven’t learned to use even 10% of what they offer. That’s an incredibly feature-rich resource, not that StockCharts doesn’t offer a lot as well. But of the two, I think BarChart is the easier and better for most investors.

Suggestion: If you find BarChart useful, and if you find that you’re using it heavily and frequently, then consider subscribing to their 2-yr, No-Ads plan for $60. But do NOT opt for any of the more expensive plans. Instead, if you’re trying vet dozens of stocks at a time, consider a subscription to SimplyWallStreet (SWS). Not cheap at $20/month, but worth every penny to me for the trouble it keeps me out of.

If money is an issue, then consider using the free version Wall Street Zen, though the premium plan would be quite affordable. But be aware the two sites offer different estimates for the various metrics, with SWS being the more conservative and --I think-- the more useful.

E.g., SWS says FV for ENPH is $145. WSZ says $223. SWS reports ENPH’s PE as 76x; WSZ, as 60x. In other words, Simply Wall Street’s valuations raise red flags of caution. Wall Street Zen’s valuations condone the recent recklessness. And we can all see this morning how that has worked out.

Lastly, I’d say this. There are literally hundreds of websites that offer charting and financial info. So many, that one could spend all day flitting from on to another. Do NOT do that. Pick ONE charting site, ONE site for doing stock-specific fundamental analysis, and ONE site for the broad macro-economic stuff, and then forget about the rest.

3 Likes

gatorswamp,
The arcs are like price labels, but a 2-month chart on Barchart will only put an arc on the highest high and the lowest low within that 2-months (or whatever time period you choose for the chart to cover.) Stockcharts has a different system for price labels because you will often see more than one high and one low labeled. I have not yet figured out exactly how it decides which ones to label. Certainly it will include the ones that show up on Barchart as arcs, but it has additional labels too. I am not yet running a screener, just visually inspecting each chart for the simonIII signal each morning and afternoon. I hope to add a screen later. Just learning and adding things as I go. So if I’m just visually inspecting 2-month charts, I’m only going to have a buy signal once every 2 months on a given equity using Barchart. With stockcharts, additional signals show up. I wouldn’t be surprised if I have just missed something though on how to use Barchart. Hopefully Arindam or Quill can enlighten us!

1 Like

Lisa,

Quill is the one who uses price labels and/or low/high markers. I ignore them, because they constantly repaint. But, ‘Chef’s Choice.’

1 Like

Arindam,
I see now. I didn’t realize you never use the price labels. I know you had a proposed Barchart setup in a different thread here. That might be one that Gatorswamp might be interested in.

Lisa and Gatorswamp,

I can never keep track of the differences between Quill’s various versions of ‘Simon Says’, even though he built some of them using suggestions I offered him. So, let’s begin at the beginning.

What is the essence of Quill’s methods? “Buy low. Sell high”, right? He uses price labels and/or high/low flags (aka, Smiley Faces) to tell him when prices are low and when they are high. I prefer to use the fact that the trend has changed, and that can be signaled by the type of price bar one uses and/or by the indicators one adds to the time-price series.

So, let’s consider a few example of simple, minimalist, bare bones charts. Well, on second thought. Let’s not do that. Instead, let’s do some old-fashioned hand charting. ENPH is in the news this morning, So let’s work with that stock. Here’s a simple, 2-month line chart of it.

The ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’ signals are pretty obvious, right? Out on Mar 7. In on Mar 21. Out a couple days later. In on Mar 28. Out on Apr 4. Back in again on Apr 11. Out on Apr 20, no if’s and’s or but’s. thus avoiding today’s modest little “correction”. (ROTFL) Not obvious? Let’s draw some lines.

There’s are a lot more going on in that chart that should be talked about, namely, the presence of some obvious "Measured Moves’. (But let’s leave that to a later discussion.) So, here’s ENPH again, this time done with Alex Elder’s ‘Impulse System’.

The 'Buy/Sell rules are obvious, right? (Buy when the bars turn from red to green. If long and the bars turn blue, be ready to get out. Etc. Etc. )

A chart type that simplifies Quill’s system and is even more drop-dead obvious than other bar types is Heikin Ash bars, especially when paired with a modified version of his "Wait One’ rule that incorporates the use of Candle Pattern Analysis, especially the often high predictability offered by Dojis. Also, note that the chart has been marked up to be a ‘Slow In/Fast Out’ system. (More on that another time.)


[edit There should be a green ‘buy’ arrow under the bar for Mar 23.]

One’s ‘take-away’ should be this. Yesterday’s market can’t be bought. So, no matter how convincing a trading system might look when applied to past data, the only thing that matters is what bet could be justified when you’re at the hard, right-hand edge of the chart. Do you Buy? Buy more? Hold? Sell Some? Sell all? or Stand aside? Most of the time, what to do isn’t very obvious and --worse-- no matter how good the chart looks, exogenous factors --like what’s happening in the broad market-- can subvert an otherwise well-evidenced bet. But if your rule set is simple, sound, and consistently applied, AND your bet size is appropriate to your account size and tolerance for drawdowns, then profits should accrue, on average and over the long haul.

Lastly, I can’t resist. Here’s me rowing a friend’s boat last Sat.

5 Likes

image
click on the Help ? at the top right hand corner to expain it a little better.

Note the ARC on 4/18, we wait-one-day to execute if the price drops below the ARC. So we placed a sell order to help protect ones ASSets.

Now place the cursor on 4/25 and notice the TSI below gave a warning of something is about to happen. And so ENPH to a pounding.

3 Likes

Quill,

Totally agree. No matter how ENPH is charted, there was plenty of warning, plenty of days in advance, that prices were stalling and that the prudent trade was to have stood aside until the dust settled from the upcoming earnings report that merely went on to say what could have been already known.

Anyone who was surprised by the report, or by the market’s reaction to it, is an idiot that deserves the loss they suffered. What all of them who were still long ENPH yesterday need to do is to buy a copy of Ben Graham’s, The Intelligent Investor, and to take its lessons to heart, namely, the difference between owing sound investments and making purely speculative bets.

1 Like

re: CRWD,
re: HODLers (hanging on for dear life)

Gatorswap,

Looked at your purchase of CRWD at the " V" (3/19/2020). In using my Simon Sez III as a Swing Trader, we would have had 32 out of 32 successful trades with zero losses other than a minor Head Fake or two. Today, Simon gave a buy signal per the two (2) simple rules at $123.77.

If a baseball player came to the plate 62 times and hit 62 singles and doubles, WHAT is batting average.

Re: ENPH
There was a SELL signal per the rules on 4/19/23. 5 days later you guys got pounded. The last BUY signal was on 3/30/23 for a nice 20.1058 percent profit.
You could have probably retired on just this one stock.

Quill - a poor church mouse scratching for a living.

2 Likes

I saw that signal on CRWD today and didn’t buy just because I felt I already had enough irons in the fire. I have not been watching ENPH, but wow! That’s devastating to anyone with a large position. It’s awesome that all the methods you guys pointed out above would have told you to get out days before!

1 Like

Honestly, the thing about these charts is that they are hindsight and hindsight is 20:20.

Here’s the 2 month chart set up on SimonSez3 and after that hard rise up just before earnings you have two weak red bars and the second bar has a TSI crossing but during the day it would have been a very positive TSI. The charts don’t lie but interpreting the chart that it was going to make a huge drop on that 3rd bar is a reach. I didn’t have any ENPH, but I’m sorry those guys took that beating and the chart was not that strong for a massive drop. As I go thru all the charts that I check on my positions, I notice that the short term charts gave plenty of warning. If you look at the one month chart, the 10 day chart, and 5 day chart you see plenty of warning that the sell signal is in, but Quills SS3 and SS4 set up on 2 months doesn’t give the strong warning so I would advise use SS3 and 4 but check the short term charts too for a sell signal building up and get out before the SS3 or 4 says sell. That is the only problem with these charts is that a big drop or rise is usually a surprise. Where these charts make you money is to catch a positive trend over months and give you a buy point and then lock in a sell point on a dip. If the dip is weak and one dilly dallies, one could get burned as in the ENPH chart. Two things - hogs get slaughtered and IMHO…doc

below is one month set up for 240 minutes - plenty of warning:

below is the 5 day 60 minute chart. You have to realize that at 1pm on the 25th you get a first red dot and by 3pm you have the 3rd red dot. If one doesn’t get out on the 25th, you take that huge loss on the morning of the 26th. Its more subtle when you start looking at times and the trends.

1 Like

Quill,
here is SimonSez3 set up on a one month chart. I don’t see the sell signal on April 19 or 20th. Can you check that I have the PARTP set up right? It looks like its in the middle of the buy signal. It was the same on the 2 month scale…doc

Arindam,
I see you, I see the boat, but where is the fishing pole? Looks like fun…doc

Hi Lisa,

Not sure which signal on CRWD you were talking about…On my chart, I see what Quill says…There is no buy signal currently, just a fairly recent sell on 4/19/23…but like you, I haven’t bought or sold as I am finding it tough to sell at big losses, I had a chance to sell at 135 something, but sold half and kept others, thinking it may be a long term investment…My bad!