Regarding Monday's market and China and lockdowns

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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On Friday, pre-market (USA), the Hang Seng was up 6% and major Chinese stocks like Alibaba were trading up 16%. There was no official news but ‘rumours were circulating on social media that China would be relaxing it’s lockdown policy’. This was enough to cause a massive rally that fed into European and US markets too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/04/rumours-of-zero-covid-easing-spread-in-china-amid-anger-at-restrictions?amp;amp;amp

Rumours of zero-Covid easing spread in China amid anger at restrictions

However, it is a ridiculous rumour. Literally less than 2 weeks ago, Xi Jinping appointed as his new Premier, the man who was responsible for Shanghai’s ‘super tough’ 2 month total lockdown - Li Qiang.

Consequently it is not surprising that on Saturday, China made an official announcement via various world media outlets that the rumours are false.

https://www.ft.com/content/99693f8f-c9fd-4f0e-85dd-2fcff12853b3

Beijing quashes market rumours of quicker end to zero-Covid policy

My guess is that this official pronouncement may affect markets on Monday to about the same degree as the rumours affected them on Friday, in the downwards direction.

Separately, as a bear, it is infuriating that ‘pivot rumours’ and ‘lockdown in china ending rumours’ have created such strong bear rallies. C’mon, people, let’s get this bear market over with. Give me some cheap stocks to buy and we can move forward.

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I’m with you. I’m 93% in cash - awaiting deployment :wink:

I’m in a quandary as to whether the recession will be short or long. I see many articles saying that it could be a long stretch. If that’s the case, then waiting more would be prudent.

I’m not itching to pull the trigger, but doing my due diligence on what I want to buy and at what price.

I also don’t need nor want to invest 100% of our funds, so also taking a look at how much do I want to invest in the market? Current thinking is that I would invest up to 25% of our retirement account funds into stocks and low cost ETF index funds.

'38Packard
→ good luck to all investors

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Join the crowd! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

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I saw VXUS (Vanguard Total International Etf) was up nearly 4% on Friday, very odd. Thanks for the explanation.