New COVID-19 Developments

I know we try not to discuss macro issues but I felt this worth sharing as I fully expected all of this and it supports my belief that this is going to go on longer than the market seems to pricing for. At the same time this doesn’t change my approach to investing. I can’t predict the future so I keep investing in good companies. That said, I can’t help but hold back some cash just in case that uneasy feeling in my gut over all the greed and lack of fear proves true and we get another great buying opportunity.

Please note I don’t mean to be an alarmist here. I truly hope that all of this is just noise and all plans will go well. My biggest worry is the lack of discussion around here about spreading through asymptomatic carriers.

As my child’s school approaches reopening in a matter of weeks in Vancouver, BC, with no testing plan (thankfully it is optional), I can’t help but wonder how much political pressure is driving things instead of science. This scares me. Obviously my child won’t be taking part in these human trials. My family will be trailing the easing of social distancing by at least a month to see what happens. I mean, look at what happened in france:… (70 cases of COVID-19 at French schools days after reopening)…
(Bloomberg) – Antibody tests had a 19.9% positive rate in New York City, with one location in the Bronx finding 43% of residents had antibodies, showing the importance of masks and social distancing to stop community spread, Governor Andrew Cuomo said.

Chinese doctors are seeing the virus manifest differently in its new cluster of cases, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

CDC Issues Reopening Guidelines (11:05 a.m. NY)

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued a 60-page document that provides detailed suggestions for different phases of reopening workplaces, schools and restaurants, after an earlier draft was rejected by the White House for being too prescriptive. It was posted on the CDC website over the weekend without fanfare.…
China’s New Outbreak Shows Signs the Virus Could Be Changing
Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to test negative, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.

“The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of family infections,” said Qiu,…

Scientists still do not fully understand if the virus is changing in significant ways and the differences Chinese doctors are seeing could be due to the fact that they’re able to observe patients more thoroughly and from an earlier stage than in Wuhan.

It’s likely that the observations in China don’t have a simple correlation with a mutation and “very clear evidence” is needed before concluding that the virus is mutating, he said.