Remember slaughtering Grantham

A couple of legends of disruption posts on the BRK forum led the charge slaughtering Jeremy Grantham. As I wrote back then Grantham is always right (not that I like it), its just when that is so fleeting.

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What was Grantham right about?

His call to buy as much international equity as you can stand hasn’t worked out very well, yet.

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Interesting post.

Jeremey sees a reversion to the mean for S&P 500 of 2500. That’s a long ways to go in this bear.

Jeremey sees a reversion to the mean for S&P 500 of 2500. That’s a long ways to go in this bear.

If it get’s there it’ll be back to where it was 4 years ago, when Grantham said investors would be better off in international stocks, especially emerging markets.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,VEA,VWO,BRK/…

Since then:
SPY & BRK +57%
Developed international +6%
Emerging markets -3%

Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.
He could still be right - maybe we just saw his “near-term melt-up”, 2-3 years late?

Stock-market investors should ‘brace for a possible near-term melt-up’: Jeremy Grantham
Published: Jan. 4, 2018
GMO founder sees ‘possible/probable bubble of 2018-19’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-sho…

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Yeah, thx for that Adrian. Jeremy’s bold predictions are not as bad as that character, Harry Dent, but selected examples like this does demonstrate that he is no more prescient than you or me.