I original began posting portfolio updates on Saul’s board. For over a year I was invested in a cannabis company which got my posts deleted for not following the rules of the board. I moved my updates to the legal cannabis board. However I recently sold out of my cannabis position. I do not have a home board however I like posting my monthly results to reference in the future. I am looking for a home board. This is one that I have followed over the years. For now it will be my monthly portfolio posts new home.
Portfolio Update 5/01/22 8:30AM
It’s been a month since I posted my last portfolio update found here;
I have found doing these updates is helping me keep better records of my investing thought processes over time. Much like keeping a journal in life when you re-read in the future it helps you remember what your thoughts were at the time of writing. Hopefully others find this helpful as well.
Current Portfolio as of 5/1/22. Change since 4/1/22 -21.1% YTD -41.3% VTI Monthly -9.5% YTD -14.9%
I have decided to just benchmark versus the VTI which is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, which is probably what I would put my money into if I did not want to spend time researching stocks. VTI includes all 3600 stocks traded in market.
Stock % Portfolio % Portfolio % Change Market Monthly Stock Current Previous Portfolio Cap (B) Price change % UPST 78.4 63.0 +15.4 6.4 -31.2 MNDY 21.1 7.7 +13.4 5.8 -21.8 CASH 0.5 29.3 -28.8
New positions since last portfolio update: NONE
Exited positions since last update: NONE
Trades between 4/1/22-5/1/22 Bought: MNDY 4/12 143.33 UPST 4/14 87.55 Sold: None
Thoughts on trades and companies for the month.
Currently at year to date lows. It is always darkest before the dawn. Both of my companies are reporting in the next two weeks. I could see fortunes changing quickly with positive reports. I am tempted to invest it all in Upstart but have been fighting that urge. I have in the past (especially early investing years) fallen in love with a company/stock where I felt it was a good investment even if the numbers showed differently. I do not think this is the case with Upstart, the numbers are impressive. The negative sentiment for Upstart is more forward looking, the market does not think it can thrive in rising interest rate environment. I plan on waiting to find out when the quarterly reports come out. So far I have seen nothing in the numbers that concerns me.
Monday is in a competitive software space, however I do think it numbers show that it is doing just fine. Both companies are out of favor at the moment. If I had more money to invest I would be buying them both. However I am 99.5% invested currently (plan on buying with the 0.5% cash soon).
TAM 1.4T https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/upstarts-%241.4-trillion-mar…
Monthly performance of stock for April was -31.2% following a similarly brutal March. YTD -48.1%
Quiet month on the news front. Upstart reports first quarter earnings on May 9th.
(USD) Fiscal Q4 2021 ended 12/31/21 Year/year change REVENUE 305.33M 247.82% NET INCOME 58.94M 5,639.44% DILUTED EPS 0.60 — NET PROFIT MARGIN 19.31% 1,550.43% OPERATING INCOME 60.89M 431.02% NET CHANGE IN CASH 19.48M -90.29% CASH AND EQUIVALENTS 986.61M 293.35% COST OF REVENUE 41.05M 220.97%
TAM 55B https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-workf…
Monthly stock performance was -21.8% YTD is -57.0%
Quiet month on news front. Monday reports first quarter earnings on May 16th.
(USD) Fiscal Q4 2021 ended 12/31/21 Year/year change REVENUE 95.55M 90.55% NET INCOME -32.61M 48.13% DILUTED EPS -0.73 86.65% NET PROFIT MARGIN -34.13% 72.78% OPERATING INCOME -31.60M 48.78% NET CHANGE IN CASH 10.59M 188.07% CASH AND EQUIVALENTS 886.81M 583.14% COST OF REVENUE 11.77M 76.14%
YTD return of portfolio for each month January -30.4% February -9.4% March -19.5% April -41.3% (end of the month has been low of entire year)
I think sharing ones portfolio can be a helpful endeavor but obviously I have a huge tolerance for risk. I base my investment decision on my analysis and thoughts alone. I listen and weigh others thoughts and information but never hold them accountable for any investment decisions that I make. Portfolio allocation is another unique decision for all investors. I obviously am extremely highly concentrated. This investment style is not for the faint of heart. It requires quick decision making and action if one feels there is a change in investment thesis. You can look at last months update to see where I unwound a good size position in a company that I had been invested in for over a year and wrote many positive posts about. What had changed? The numbers showed slowing growth that was hidden bye a buyout of another company. If I had not know the company so well I might have been fooled into believe it was a good earnings report. However it showed slowing revenue growth and forecasted slowing revenue growth. I made a quick decision to get out at a loss. I state all of this to clarify that one should study and hold yourself responsible for investment decisions. New investors should take the time to learn first before investing their hard earned money.