Retirementdough January 2022 Portfolio

Portfolio Update 1/29/22 7AM

It’s been a month since I posted my last portfolio update found here;…

I have found doing these updates is helping me keep better records of my investing thought processes over time. Much like keeping a journal in life when you re-read in the future it helps you remember what your thoughts were at the time of writing. Hopefully others find this helpful as well.

Current Portfolio as of 1/29/22.  
Change since 1/1/22		   	 -30.4%			YTD	-30.4%

VTI Monthly 				  -8.0%   		YTD	-8.0%

I have decided to just benchmark versus the VTI which is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, which is probably what I would put my money into if I did not want to spend time researching stocks. VTI includes all 3600 stocks traded in market.

Stock		% Portfolio 	 % Portfolio	       % Change 	Market         Monthly Stock 
		  Current	   Previous	       Portfolio        Cap (B)        Price change  
UPST		  70.1		     60.0		   +10.1	7.8B		-37.2%
TCNNF	          27.9		     40.0                  -12.1	3.5B		-28.3%
CASH		   2.0		      1.0                   +1.0

New positions since last portfolio update: SNOW

Exited positions since last update: SNOW

Trades between 1/1-1/28

Bought: 	SNOW		1/4		306.85; 305.22; 290.16
		UPST		1/11		120.01
		UPST		1/21		103.25; 92.49
		UPST		1/24		79.03; 78.50
Sold: 		TCNNF	        1/11		25.30
		SNOW		1/24		257.95

Thoughts on trades and companies for the month.

Both of my companies are getting kicked in the teeth by the market. I infused about 19% new cash into my portfolio at the start of the new year. This was money that I had set aside in the bank for a market downturn. I believe the downturn is here. Will it go lower, possibly, but I felt the time was right to put that money to work.

I started a small position in SNOW at beginning of month. I have had my eye on SNOW for a while but have never liked the value. After it fell some I thought it would be a good opportunity to start a position. It equaled about a 2% position. I did not own it very long. I sold it to buy more UPST. UPST has gotten so low I think the risk/reward profile is too great.

My portfolio is so heavily weighted to UPST that it has taken a serious beating. I am ok with the downturn. I will be paying very close attention to earnings on Feb. 15th. I have 2% position currently in cash that I will be using to buy more Trulieve or Upstart. It is in taxable account and I have to be aware of wash rules which prevent me from buying Trulieve in that account for a few more weeks. I think both companies at these stock prices offer very attractive potential returns.

My portfolio hit an all time high on Oct. 22nd, 2021. From that date till today my portfolio is 40% the value of what it was just a little over 3 months ago. That is a wild ride. Not going to lie it hurt a little. However over the years I have learned that wild swing in stock prices often do not reflect the realty of the underlying businesses. Morgan Housel wrote the article “The agony of high returns” back in 2016…

I have shared this article with a friend of mine recently that thought he wanted to invest like me. He enjoyed the wild ride upward but does not seem to have the stomach for the downward. If it keeps you up at night worrying you probably do not need to be an aggressive investor. I personally sleep like a baby at night. I have been buying more Upstart with frequency, one only has to look at my monthly reviews to see my buys and sells.

Will I be successful? I cannot say with 100% certainty but I will keep posting my results for anyone who is interested in learning along with me. I will say I have been investing for 20+ years and my best returns typically come after the worst lows. Being aggressive during down times in the past has led to outsized returns versus the broader market. My gut tells me I will again benefit in the future, when in the future I do not know. Only time will tell. I do not pretend to be a market guru, I am just an ordinary guy who manages his own money. Do your own due diligence and make decisions that are right for you.

Upstart UPST
MC 7.8B
TAM 1.4T…

Monthly performance of stock for November was -37.2%

Announced a new deals with more credit unions.……

Trulieve TCNNF
MC 3.5B
TAM 62.5B (US)…

Monthly performance of stock for November was -28.3%

Placed a 75 million dollar loan at 8% interest (good rate for cannabis company).…

Launched new hyrdrocarbon extraction product.…

Opened its 160th dispensary.…

YTD return of portfolio for each month 

January  	-30.4%